Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks
September 2024
The basic reproduction number, R0, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R0 from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation...
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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models
September 2024
During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...
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Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy
September 2024
In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most...
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Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution
September 2024
The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale...
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Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan
September 2024
Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...
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Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical model
September 2024
Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the virus. While individuals...
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Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey
June 2024
Key epidemiological parameters, including the effective reproduction number, R(t), and the instantaneous growth rate, r(t), generated from an ensemble of models, have been informing public health policy...
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Unravelling COVID-19 waves in Rio de Janeiro city: Qualitative insights from nonlinear dynamic analysis
June 2024
Since the COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in 2019, it has rapidly spread around the world. Many countries implemented several measures to try to control the virus spreading. The healthcare system...
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Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19
June 2024
We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic...
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Global stability for age-infection-structured human immunodeficiency virus model with heterogeneous transmission
June 2024
In this paper, we analyze the global asymptotic behaviors of a mathematical susceptible-infected(SI) age-infection-structured human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) model with heterogeneous transmission....
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Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections
June 2024
Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong...
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A novel approach to model the role of mobility suppression and vaccinations in containing epidemics in a network of cities
June 2024
This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities. Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values. The...
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Valuation and comparison of the actual and optimal control strategy in an emerging infectious disease: Implication from a COVID-19 transmission model
June 2024
To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic. In this paper,...
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Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of COVID-19 cases in Johor
June 2024
At the end of the year 2019, a virus named SARS-CoV-2 induced the coronavirus disease, which is very contagious and quickly spread around the world. This new infectious disease is called COVID-19. Numerous...
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SubEpiPredict: A tutorial-based primer and toolbox for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework
June 2024
An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works. This modeling framework...
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The non-stationary and spatially varying associations between hand, foot and mouth disease and multiple environmental factors: A Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model study
June 2024
The transmission and prevalence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) are affected by a variety of natural and socio-economic environmental factors. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the...
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An AI-empowered indoor digital contact tracing system for COVID-19 outbreaks in residential care homes
June 2024
An AI-empowered indoor digital contact-tracing system was developed using a centralized architecture and advanced low-energy Bluetooth technologies for indoor positioning, with careful preservation...
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Modelling the preventive treatment under media impact on tuberculosis: A comparison in four regions of China
June 2024
Preventive treatment for people with latent Tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has aroused our great interest. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel mathematical model of TB considering preventive...
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Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report
June 2024
In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes...
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Assessing the impact of interventions on the major Omicron BA.2 outbreak in spring 2022 in Shanghai
June 2024
Shanghai experienced a significant surge in Omicron BA.2 infections from March to June 2022. In addition to the standard interventions in place at that time, additional interventions were implemented...
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Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics
June 2024
We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability...
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Modelling the unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil
June 2024
In late March 2020, SARS-CoV-2 arrived in Manaus, Brazil, and rapidly developed into a large-scale epidemic that collapsed the local health system and resulted in extreme death rates. Several key studies...
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Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis
June 2024
Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using...
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Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach
June 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. The primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination...
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Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control
June 2024
This study introduces a novel SI2HR model, where “I2” denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal...
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