Special Issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Transmission

Special Issue Edited by Professor Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Professor Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Professor Ping Yan, Professor Jianhong Wu

All papers are freely available and will be made live online as soon they are published.

• IDM editorial statement on the 2019-nCoV
  Yiming Shao, Jianhong Wu
  Infectious Disease Modelling

• An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)
  Biao Tang, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Qian Li, Sanyi Tang, Yanni Xiao, Jianhong Wu
  Infectious Disease Modelling

• Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020
  K.Roosa, Y.Lee, R.Luo, A.Kirpich, R.Rothenberg, J.M.Hyman, P.Yan, G.Chowell
  Infectious Disease Modelling

• Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
  Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell
  Infectious Disease Modelling

• Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?
  Weston C.Roda, Marie B.Varughese, Donglin Han, Michael Y.Li
  Infectious Disease Modelling​
   
• Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19
  Lixiang Li, Zihang Yang, Zhongkai Dang, Cui Meng, Jingze Huang, Haotian Meng, Deyu Wang, Guanhua Chen, Jiaxuan Zhang, Haipeng Peng, Yiming Shao
  Infectious Disease Modelling
   
• To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic 
  Steffen E. Eikenberry, Marina Mancuso, Enahoro Iboi, Tin Phan, Keenan Eikenberry, Yang Kuang, Eric Kostelich, Abba B. Gumel
  Infectious Disease Modelling
   
• A simple model for COVID-19
  Julien Arino, Stéphanie Portet
  Infectious Disease Modelling

Dr. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, mathematical epidemiologist and Editorial Board Member of Infectious Disease Modelling, was also recently interviewed by STAT for an article on Covid-19. 

Once widely criticized, the Wuhan quarantine bought the world time to prepare for Covid-19
Could cause panic.” “Will not help end the crisis.” “Could backfire.”

When the Chinese government blocked most travel into and out of the city at the center of the Covid-19 outbreak in late January, many public health experts took to social media and op-ed pages to decry the measure as not only draconian and a violation of individual rights but also as ineffective: This largest quarantine in history — the city, Wuhan, has a population of 11 million, and the lockdown has been expanded — would have little effect on the course of the epidemic, they argued.

As the U.S. and other countries imposed travel restrictions, even the World Health Organization questioned whether they were a good idea. But early evidence is causing some disease fighters to reconsider.

Read the full STAT article.