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Most Downloaded Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

The most downloaded articles from ScienceDirect in the last 90 days.

1. Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

May 2017
Fred Brauer

We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....

2. Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

August 2017
Pauline van den Driessche

This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...

3. Long-term predictors of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: A data mining approach

Olav Titus Muurlink | Peter Stephenson | Mohammad Zahirul Islam | Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson

The effects of weather variables on the transmission of vector-borne diseases are complex. Relationships can be non-linear, specific to particular geographic locations, and involve long lag times between...

4. Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

Attila Dénes | Abba B. Gumel

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases...

5. A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

May 2017
Linda J.S. Allen

Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...

6. Mathematical models of SIR disease spread with combined non-sexual and sexual transmission routes

February 2017
Joel C. Miller

The emergence of Zika and Ebola demonstrates the importance of understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper,...

7. Adult female syphilis prevalence, congenital syphilis case incidence and adverse birth outcomes, Mongolia 2000–2016: Estimates using the Spectrum STI tool

Erdenetungalag Enkhbat | Eline L. Korenromp | Jugderjav Badrakh | Setsen Zayasaikhan | Purevsuren Baya | Enkhjargal Orgiokhuu | Narantuya Jadambaa | Sergelen Munkhbaatar | Delgermaa Khishigjargal | Narantuya Khad | Guy Mahiané | Naoko Ishikawa | Davaalkham Jagdagsuren | Melanie M. Taylor

Mongolia's health ministry prioritizes control of Sexually Transmitted Infections, including syphilis screening and treatment in antenatal care (ANC)....

8. Mathematics of dengue transmission dynamics: Roles of vector vertical transmission and temperature fluctuations

Rahim Taghikhani | Abba B. Gumel

A new deterministic model is designed and used to gain insight into the effect of seasonal variations in temperature and vector vertical transmission on the transmission dynamics of dengue disease....

9. Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts

August 2017
Gerardo Chowell

Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...

10. Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Ashleigh R. Tuite | Alexander G. Watts | Kamran Khan | Isaac I. Bogoch

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination,...

11. What could re-infection tell us about R0? A modeling case-study of syphilis transmission

Joshua Feldman | Sharmistha Mishra

Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic...

12. A primer on the use of probability generating functions in infectious disease modeling

Joel C. Miller

We explore the application of probability generating functions (PGFs) to invasive processes, focusing on infectious disease introduced into large populations. Our goal is to acquaint the reader with...

13. A primer on multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems

Winston Garira

The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers: (a) the conceptual framework frontier, (b) the...

14. Modeling transmission dynamics of lyme disease: Multiple vectors, seasonality, and vector mobility

Aileen Nguyen | Joseph Mahaffy | Naveen K. Vaidya

Lyme disease is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in the United States, which humans acquire from an infected tick of the genus Ixodes (primarily Ixodes scapularis). While previous studies have...

15. Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

October 2016
Fred Brauer | Carlos Castillo-Chavez | Anuj Mubayi | Sherry Towers

Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It...

16. Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria

F.B. Agusto | M.C.A. Leite

This paper presents a deterministic model for Neisseria meningitidis, a bacterium that causes meningitis. The model was parameterized using data from the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria. Optimal...

17. Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines

Hanl Lee | Angelyn Lao

Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the...

18. Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

Tiffany Leung | Patricia T. Campbell | Barry D. Hughes | Federico Frascoli | James M. McCaw

In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and...

19. Comparison of different strategies for controlling HIV/AIDS spreading in MSM

Jie Lou | Jinjin Cheng | Yan Li | Chen Zhang | Hui Xing | Yuhua Ruan | Yiming Shao

As proposed in the UNAIDSs 2014 report, to end global AIDS epidemic by 2030, 90% of people living with HIV need to be diagnosed, 90% of the diagnosed need to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and...

20. Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

May 2017
F.B. Agusto | S. Bewick | W.F. Fagan

Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper,...

21. Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection

Adeshina I. Adekunle | Michael T. Meehan | Emma S. McBryde

Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae....

22. Projected effectiveness of HIV detection during early infection and rapid ART initiation among MSM and transgender women in Peru: A modeling study

Dobromir Dimitrov | Daniel Wood | Angela Ulrich | David A. Swan | Blythe Adamson | Javier R. Lama | Jorge Sanchez | Ann Duerr

The Sabes study, a treatment as prevention intervention in Peru, tested the hypothesis that initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early in HIV infection when viral load is high, would markedly reduce...

23. Modeling the role of public health education in Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Sudan

August 2017
Benjamin Levy | Christina Edholm | Orou Gaoue | Roselyn Kaondera-Shava | Moatlhodi Kgosimore | Suzanne Lenhart | Benjamin Lephodisa | Edward Lungu | Theresia Marijani | Farai Nyabadza

Public involvement in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) prevention efforts is key to reducing disease outbreaks. Targeted education through practical health information to particular groups and sub-populations...

24. A mathematical modelling study of HIV infection in two heterosexual age groups in Kenya

E.O. Omondi | R.W. Mbogo | L.S. Luboobi

The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups. In the present manuscript, we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between...

25. Modeling Lyme disease transmission

May 2017
Yijun Lou | Jianhong Wu

Lyme disease, a typical tick-borne disease, imposes increasing global public health challenges. A growing body of theoretical models have been proposed to better understand various factors determining...

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