Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
2020
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models
2021
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...
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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
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Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report
June 2024
In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes...
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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread
2021
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...
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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
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Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
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Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand
December 2023
Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to...
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Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study
December 2023
The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate...
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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
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Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise
March 2024
In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical...
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Assessing the impact of booster vaccination on diphtheria transmission: Mathematical modeling and risk zone mapping
March 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions in the healthcare system, affecting vaccinations and the management of diphtheria cases. As a consequence of these disruptions, numerous countries...
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Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections
June 2024
Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong...
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Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19
June 2024
We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic...
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Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach
March 2024
In Canada, the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus (WNV) is difficult to predict and, beyond climatic factors, appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern...
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Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics
March 2024
Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors,...
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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs
2021
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...
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SEIRS model for malaria transmission dynamics incorporating seasonality and awareness campaign
March 2024
Malaria, a devastating disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite and transmitted through the bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a significant public health concern, claiming over 600,000...
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Counterfactual analysis of the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China
March 2024
China has experienced a COVID-19 wave caused by Omicron XBB variant starting in April 2023. Our aim is to conduct a retrospective analysis exploring the dynamics of the outbreak under counterfactual...
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Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
August 2017
Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...
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