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Most Downloaded Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

The most downloaded articles from ScienceDirect in the last 90 days.

1. Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

2020
Junling Ma

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

2. An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

2020
Biao Tang | Nicola Luigi Bragazzi | Qian Li | Sanyi Tang | Yanni Xiao | Jianhong Wu

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...

3. Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

2020
K. Roosa | Y. Lee | R. Luo | A. Kirpich | R. Rothenberg | J.M. Hyman | P. Yan | G. Chowell

The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human...

4. Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, “Farr's law” and SIR compartmental difference equation models

2018
Mauricio Santillana | Ashleigh Tuite | Tahmina Nasserie | Paul Fine | David Champredon | Leonid Chindelevitch | Jonathan Dushoff | David Fisman

Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection...

5. Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020
Kenji Mizumoto | Gerardo Chowell

An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak...

6. Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

2020
Lixiang Li | Zihang Yang | Zhongkai Dang | Cui Meng | Jingze Huang | Haotian Meng | Deyu Wang | Guanhua Chen | Jiaxuan Zhang | Haipeng Peng | Yiming Shao

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....

7. Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts

August 2017
Gerardo Chowell

Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...

8. Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

2020
Weston C. Roda | Marie B. Varughese | Donglin Han | Michael Y. Li

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...

9. Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

May 2017
Fred Brauer

We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....

10. IDM editorial statement on the 2019-nCoV

2020
Yiming Shao | Jianhong Wu

11. To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

2020
Steffen E. Eikenberry | Marina Mancuso | Enahoro Iboi | Tin Phan | Keenan Eikenberry | Yang Kuang | Eric Kostelich | Abba B. Gumel

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....

12. Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

August 2017
Pauline van den Driessche

This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...

13. A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

May 2017
Linda J.S. Allen

Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...

14. Is it growing exponentially fast? – Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics

October 2016
Gerardo Chowell | Cécile Viboud

The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics in order to generate reliable...

15. Discrete time forecasting of epidemics

2020
Daniel A.M. Villela

Forecasting in the domain of infectious diseases aims at estimating the number of cases ahead of time during an epidemic, hence fundamentally requires understanding its dynamics. In fact, estimates...

16. Mathematical models of SIR disease spread with combined non-sexual and sexual transmission routes

February 2017
Joel C. Miller

The emergence of Zika and Ebola demonstrates the importance of understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper,...

17. Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines

2018
Hanl Lee | Angelyn Lao

Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the...

18. Mathematical epidemiology in a data-rich world

2020
Julien Arino

I discuss the acquisition and use of “background” data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring...

19. Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication

2020
Asma Azizi | Cesar Montalvo | Baltazar Espinoza | Yun Kang | Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed...

20. Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

2019
Attila Dénes | Abba B. Gumel

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases...

21. Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

2018
Tiffany Leung | Patricia T. Campbell | Barry D. Hughes | Federico Frascoli | James M. McCaw

In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and...

22. Bayesian inference for dynamical systems

2020
Weston C. Roda

Bayesian inference is a common method for conducting parameter estimation for dynamical systems. Despite the prevalent use of Bayesian inference for performing parameter estimation for dynamical systems,...

23. Controlling infection in predator-prey systems with transmission dynamics

2020
M.-G. Cojocaru | T. Migot | A. Jaber

We propose in this paper a prophylactic treatment strategy for a predator-prey system. The objective is to fight against the propagation of an infectious disease within two populations, one of which...

24. Deterministic epidemic model for (SVCSyCAsyIR) pneumonia dynamics, with vaccination and temporal immunity

2020
Dominic Otoo | Patrick Opoku | Sebil Charles | Asekiya Prince Kingsley

Streptococcus pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mobility and mortality in children under 6 years and the elderly especially in developing countries in which Ghana, the study area is not an exception.In...

25. Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies

2020
Francesca Scarabel | Lorenzo Pellis | Nicola Luigi Bragazzi | Jianhong Wu

After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th, 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health...

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