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Recent Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

Recently published articles from Infectious Disease Modelling.

Deterministic epidemic model for (SVCSyCAsyIR) pneumonia dynamics, with vaccination and temporal immunity

2020
Dominic Otoo | Patrick Opoku | Sebil Charles | Asekiya Prince Kingsley

Streptococcus pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mobility and mortality in children under 6 years and the elderly especially in developing countries in which Ghana, the study area is not an exception.In...

Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication

2020
Asma Azizi | Cesar Montalvo | Baltazar Espinoza | Yun Kang | Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed...

Controlling infection in predator-prey systems with transmission dynamics

2020
M.-G. Cojocaru | T. Migot | A. Jaber

We propose in this paper a prophylactic treatment strategy for a predator-prey system. The objective is to fight against the propagation of an infectious disease within two populations, one of which...

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic SEITR epidemic model with multiple stages of infection and treatment

2020
Olusegun Michael Otunuga | Mobolaji O. Ogunsolu

We present a mathematical analysis of the transmission of certain diseases using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-treated-recovered (SEITR) model with multiple stages of infection and treatment...

Mathematical model of zika virus dynamics with vector control and sensitivity analysis

2020
Sudhanshu Kumar Biswas | Uttam Ghosh | Susmita Sarkar

In this paper, we have developed and analyzed a deterministic Zika model considering both vector and sexual transmission route with the effect of human awareness and vector control in the absence of...

Optimal control strategies for preventing hepatitis B infection and reducing chronic liver cirrhosis incidence

2020
Mst. Shanta Khatun | Md. Haider Ali Biswas

Advanced liver cirrhosis has become life-threatening among non-communicable diseases nowadays. Cirrhosis, the terminal stage of liver diseases in which the liver develops scarring as a result of various...

Modelling and simulating Chikungunya spread with an unstructured triangular cellular automata

2020
Gerardo Ortigoza | Fred Brauer | Iris Neri

In this work we propose a mathematical model to simulate Chikungunya spread; the spread model is implemented in a C++ cellular automata code defined on unstructured triangular grids and space visualizations...

Releasing Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti to prevent the spread of dengue virus: A mathematical study

2020
Hong Zhang | Roger Lui

Wolbachia is a bacterium that is present in 60% of insects but it is not generally found in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector responsible for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and other...

Mathematical epidemiology in a data-rich world

2020
Julien Arino

I discuss the acquisition and use of “background” data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring...

A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

2020
Stéphanie Portet

A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...

Discrete time forecasting of epidemics

2020
Daniel A.M. Villela

Forecasting in the domain of infectious diseases aims at estimating the number of cases ahead of time during an epidemic, hence fundamentally requires understanding its dynamics. In fact, estimates...

Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

2020
Junling Ma

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

2020
Biao Tang | Nicola Luigi Bragazzi | Qian Li | Sanyi Tang | Yanni Xiao | Jianhong Wu

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...

Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

2020
K. Roosa | Y. Lee | R. Luo | A. Kirpich | R. Rothenberg | J.M. Hyman | P. Yan | G. Chowell

The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human...

Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020
Kenji Mizumoto | Gerardo Chowell

An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak...

Bayesian inference for dynamical systems

2020
Weston C. Roda

Bayesian inference is a common method for conducting parameter estimation for dynamical systems. Despite the prevalent use of Bayesian inference for performing parameter estimation for dynamical systems,...

Impact of dogs with deltamethrin-impregnated collars on prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis

2020
Mondal Hasan Zahid | Christopher M. Kribs

Leishmaniasis is a vector borne zoonosis which is classified as a neglected tropical disease. Among the three most common forms of the disease, Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most threatening to...

IDM editorial statement on the 2019-nCoV

2020
Yiming Shao | Jianhong Wu

Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

2020
Weston C. Roda | Marie B. Varughese | Donglin Han | Michael Y. Li

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...

Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

2020
Lixiang Li | Zihang Yang | Zhongkai Dang | Cui Meng | Jingze Huang | Haotian Meng | Deyu Wang | Guanhua Chen | Jiaxuan Zhang | Haipeng Peng | Yiming Shao

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....

Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies

2020
Francesca Scarabel | Lorenzo Pellis | Nicola Luigi Bragazzi | Jianhong Wu

After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th, 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health...

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

2020
Steffen E. Eikenberry | Marina Mancuso | Enahoro Iboi | Tin Phan | Keenan Eikenberry | Yang Kuang | Eric Kostelich | Abba B. Gumel

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....

A simple model for COVID-19

2020
Julien Arino | Stéphanie Portet

An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically...

A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period

2020
Z. Liu | P. Magal | O. Seydi | G. Webb

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop...

Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th–March 30th, 2020

2020
César V. Munayco | Amna Tariq | Richard Rothenberg | Gabriela G. Soto-Cabezas | Mary F. Reyes | Andree Valle | Leonardo Rojas-Mezarina | César Cabezas | Manuel Loayza | Gerardo Chowell | Dante Castro Garro | Kevin Martel Vasquez | Edith Solis Castro | Isabel Sandoval Ordinola | Javier Masias Mimbela | Kely Meza Cornejo | Fabiola Caruajulca Quijano | Lenin La Torre Rosillo | Luis Ordoñez Ibarguen | Mario Vasquez Dominguez | Rommell Veintimilla Gonzalez Seminario | Martha Calderón Silva | Mayra Saavedra Dreyfus | Miguel Luna Pineda | Milagros Durand | Noemí Janampa | Jesus Chuquihuaccha | Susan Mateo Lizarbe | David Enriquez Cusi | Idania Mamani Pilco | Alex Jaramillo | Karina Vargas | Oswaldo Cabanillas | Juan Arrasco | María Vargas | Willy Ramos

The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four months. The daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly...

The role of behavioral changes and prompt treatment in the control of STIs

2019
Fernando Saldaña | Ignacio Barradas

In this paper, we study general recovery functions and treatment in the dynamics of an SIS model for sexually transmitted infections with nonzero partnership length. It is shown how partnership dynamics...

Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

2019
Attila Dénes | Abba B. Gumel

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases...

Modeling transmission dynamics of lyme disease: Multiple vectors, seasonality, and vector mobility

2019
Aileen Nguyen | Joseph Mahaffy | Naveen K. Vaidya

Lyme disease is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in the United States, which humans acquire from an infected tick of the genus Ixodes (primarily Ixodes scapularis). While previous studies have...

Invasion reproductive numbers for discrete-time models

2019
Omomayowa Olawoyin | Christopher Kribs

Although invasion reproductive numbers (IRNs) are utilized frequently in continuous-time models with multiple interacting pathogens, they are yet to be explored in discrete-time systems. Here, we extend...

A mathematical modelling study of HIV infection in two heterosexual age groups in Kenya

2019
E.O. Omondi | R.W. Mbogo | L.S. Luboobi

The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups. In the present manuscript, we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between...

Invasion reproductive numbers for periodic epidemic models

2019
Christopher Mitchell | Christopher Kribs

There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population. In studying models for such cases, one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population...

A singular perturbation approach to epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

2019
Fred Brauer

In vector-borne epidemic models there is often a substantial difference between the vector and host time scales. This makes it possible to use the quasi-steady-state to obtain final size relations....

Probabilistic modeling for an integrated temporary acquired immunity with norovirus epidemiological data

2019
Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah | Benedict Barnes | Robert Abaidoo | Hald Tine | Anders Dalsgaard | Anders Permin | Torben Wilde Schou

Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness. In this study, a probabilistic model was set...

A threshold delay model of HIV infection of newborn infants through breastfeeding

2019
Alexandra Teslya | Redouane Qesmi | Jianhong Wu | Jane M. Heffernan

The breast milk of HIV infected women contains HIV virus particles, therefore children can become infected through breastfeeding. We develop a mathematical epidemiological model of HIV infection in...

A sexually transmitted infection model with long-term partnerships in homogeneous and heterogenous populations

2019
K.F. Gurski

Population models for sexually transmitted infections frequently use a transmission model that assumes an inherent partnership length of zero. However, in a population with long-term partnerships, the...

Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria

2019
F.B. Agusto | M.C.A. Leite

This paper presents a deterministic model for Neisseria meningitidis, a bacterium that causes meningitis. The model was parameterized using data from the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria. Optimal...

Projected effectiveness of HIV detection during early infection and rapid ART initiation among MSM and transgender women in Peru: A modeling study

2019
Dobromir Dimitrov | Daniel Wood | Angela Ulrich | David A. Swan | Blythe Adamson | Javier R. Lama | Jorge Sanchez | Ann Duerr

The Sabes study, a treatment as prevention intervention in Peru, tested the hypothesis that initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early in HIV infection when viral load is high, would markedly reduce...

Investigation of temporal and spatial heterogeneities of the immune responses to Bordetella pertussis infection in the lung and spleen of mice via analysis and modeling of dynamic microarray gene expression data

2019
Nan Deng | Juan C. Ramirez | Michelle Carey | Hongyu Miao | Cesar A. Arias | Andrew P. Rice | Hulin Wu

Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis) is the causative agent of pertussis, also referenced as whooping cough. Although pertussis has been appropriately controlled by routine immunization of infants, it...

Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic

2019
Celeste Vallejo | Carl A.B. Pearson | James Koopman | Thomas J. Hladish

As polio-endemic countries move towards elimination, infrequent first infections and incomplete surveillance make it difficult to determine when the virus has been eliminated from the population. Eichner...

Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015

2019
Hyunsun Lee

South Korea was free of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) until 2015. The MERS outbreak in South Korea during 2015 was the largest outbreak of the Coronavirus outside the Middle East. The...

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

2019
Ashleigh R. Tuite | Alexander G. Watts | Kamran Khan | Isaac I. Bogoch

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination,...

What could re-infection tell us about R0? A modeling case-study of syphilis transmission

2019
Joshua Feldman | Sharmistha Mishra

Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic...

Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection

2019
Adeshina I. Adekunle | Michael T. Meehan | Emma S. McBryde

Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae....

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART

2018
Simon de Montigny | Marie-Claude Boily | Benoît R. Mâsse | Kate M. Mitchell | Dobromir T. Dimitrov

The epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient...

Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters

2018
Julia Reis | Jeffrey Shaman

While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks, most other respiratory viruses have seldom been simulated. In this study, we provide an...

Duration of a minor epidemic

2018
William Tritch | Linda J.S. Allen

Disease outbreaks in stochastic SIR epidemic models are characterized as either minor or major. When ℛ0<1, all epidemics are minor, whereas if ℛ0>1, they can be minor or major. In 1955, Whittle derived...

Cooperative system analysis of the Ebola virus epidemic model

2018
Karima Kabli | Soumia El Moujaddid | Khadija Niri | Abdessamad Tridane

This paper aims to study the global stability of an Ebola virus epidemic model. Although this epidemic ended in September 2015, it devastated several West African countries and mobilized the international...

The epidemiological models of Karl-Peter Hadeler

2018
Klaus Dietz

The most frequently cited articles out of KP Hadeler's 45 papers with epidemiological applications are summarized. Parasitic diseases which increase the death rate of the hosts proportional to the integer...

Treatment for HIV prevention study in southwestern areas of China

2018
Huanhuan Chen | Xiaoyi Yang | Qiuying Zhu | Xinghua Wu | Li Chen | Huaxiang Lu | Liuhong Luo | Guanghua Lan | Xianming Ge | Zhenzhu Tang | Zhiyong Shen | Stephen W. Pan | Hui Xing | Yuhua Ruan | Yiming Shao | Wenmin Yang

China has ambitious to achieve significant reductions in HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality by adopting the World Health Organization's “Treat All” approach. Such a prevention strategy is needed...

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