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Recent Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

Recently published articles from Infectious Disease Modelling.

Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

Tiffany Leung | Patricia T. Campbell | Barry D. Hughes | Federico Frascoli | James M. McCaw

In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and...

Another look at silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations

Dominika A. Kalkowska | Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens | Kimberly M. Thompson

Silent circulation of polioviruses complicates the polio endgame and motivates analyses that explore the probability of undetected circulation for different scenarios. A recent analysis suggested a...

The influence of mobility among high-risk populations on HIV transmission in Western Kenya

Anna Bershteyn | Kennedy K. Mutai | Adam N. Akullian | Daniel J. Klein | Britta L. Jewell | Samuel M. Mwalili

Western Kenya suffers a highly endemic and also very heterogeneous epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients are known to be at high risk...

The analysis of a drug transmission model with family education and public health education

Jun Li | Mingju Ma

In this paper, we formulate a six dimensional drug transmission model to study the effect of family education and public health education. The dynamical behaviors of the model are discussed in terms...

Duration of a minor epidemic

William Tritch | Linda J.S. Allen

Disease outbreaks in stochastic SIR epidemic models are characterized as either minor or major. When ℛ0<1, all epidemics are minor, whereas if ℛ0>1, they can be minor or major. In 1955, Whittle derived...

Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters

Julia Reis | Jeffrey Shaman

While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks, most other respiratory viruses have seldom been simulated. In this study, we provide an...

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines

Hanl Lee | Angelyn Lao

Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the...

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART

Simon de Montigny | Marie-Claude Boily | Benoît R. Mâsse | Kate M. Mitchell | Dobromir T. Dimitrov

The epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient...

Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, “Farr's law” and SIR compartmental difference equation models

Mauricio Santillana | Ashleigh Tuite | Tahmina Nasserie | Paul Fine | David Champredon | Leonid Chindelevitch | Jonathan Dushoff | David Fisman

Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection...

Adult female syphilis prevalence, congenital syphilis case incidence and adverse birth outcomes, Mongolia 2000–2016: Estimates using the Spectrum STI tool

Erdenetungalag Enkhbat | Eline L. Korenromp | Jugderjav Badrakh | Setsen Zayasaikhan | Purevsuren Baya | Enkhjargal Orgiokhuu | Narantuya Jadambaa | Sergelen Munkhbaatar | Delgermaa Khishigjargal | Narantuya Khad | Guy Mahiané | Naoko Ishikawa | Davaalkham Jagdagsuren | Melanie M. Taylor

Mongolia's health ministry prioritizes control of Sexually Transmitted Infections, including syphilis screening and treatment in antenatal care (ANC)....

Mathematical analysis of a model for zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis

November 2017
Nafiu Hussaini | Kamaldeen Okuneye | Abba B. Gumel

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL), caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum and transmitted to humans and reservoir hosts by female sandflies, is endemic in many parts of the world (notably...

Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

November 2017
Eduardo Massad | Marcos Amaku | Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho | Claudio José Struchiner | Luis Fernandez Lopez | Annelies Wilder-Smith | Marcelo Nascimento Burattini

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections,...

Structural sensitivity in HIV modeling: A case study of vaccination

November 2017
Cora L. Bernard | Margaret L. Brandeau

Structural assumptions in infectious disease models, such as the choice of network or compartmental model type or the inclusion of different types of heterogeneity across individuals, might affect model...

Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations

November 2017
Celeste Vallejo | James Keesling | James Koopman | Burton Singer

Small populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult, threatening polio eradication. Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections. It is currently...

Time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates in epidemiological models

November 2017
Scott Greenhalgh | Troy Day

Differential equation models of infectious disease have undergone many theoretical extensions that are invaluable for the evaluation of disease spread. For instance, while one traditionally uses a bilinear...

International chicken trade and increased risk for introducing or reintroducing highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) to uninfected countries

November 2017
Jennifer M. Radin | Richard A. Shaffer | Suzanne P. Lindsay | Maria Rosario G. Araneta | Rema Raman | James H. Fowler

Every year billions of chickens are shipped thousands of miles around the globe in order to meet the ever increasing demands for this cheap and nutritious protein source. Unfortunately, transporting...

Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts

August 2017
Gerardo Chowell

Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...

Pair formation models for sexually transmitted infections: A primer

August 2017
Mirjam Kretzschmar | Janneke C.M. Heijne

For modelling sexually transmitted infections, duration of partnerships can strongly influence the transmission dynamics of the infection. If partnerships are monogamous, pairs of susceptible individuals...

How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

August 2017
Wei Gou | Zhen Jin

In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into...

National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution

August 2017
Patrick Saunders-Hastings | Bryson Quinn Hayes | Robert Smith? | Daniel Krewski

Influenza pandemics emerge at irregular and unpredictable intervals to cause substantial health, economic and social burdens. Optimizing health-system response is vital to mitigating the consequences...

A new epidemic modeling approach: Multi-regions discrete-time model with travel-blocking vicinity optimal control strategy

August 2017
Omar Zakary | Mostafa Rachik | Ilias Elmouki

First, we devise in this paper, a multi-regions discrete-time model which describes the spatial-temporal spread of an epidemic which starts from one region and enters to regions which are connected...

Modeling the role of public health education in Ebola virus disease outbreaks in Sudan

August 2017
Benjamin Levy | Christina Edholm | Orou Gaoue | Roselyn Kaondera-Shava | Moatlhodi Kgosimore | Suzanne Lenhart | Benjamin Lephodisa | Edward Lungu | Theresia Marijani | Farai Nyabadza

Public involvement in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) prevention efforts is key to reducing disease outbreaks. Targeted education through practical health information to particular groups and sub-populations...

Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

August 2017
Pauline van den Driessche

This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...

Spatiotemporal epidemic models for rabies among animals

August 2017
Shigui Ruan

Rabies is a serious concern to public health and wildlife management worldwide. Over the last three decades, various mathematical models have been proposed to study the transmission dynamics of rabies....

A primer on stable parameter estimation and forecasting in epidemiology by a problem-oriented regularized least squares algorithm

May 2017
Alexandra Smirnova | Gerardo Chowell

Public health officials are increasingly recognizing the need to develop disease-forecasting systems to respond to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. For instance, simple epidemic models relying on a...

Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

May 2017
F.B. Agusto | S. Bewick | W.F. Fagan

Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper,...

Modeling Lyme disease transmission

May 2017
Yijun Lou | Jianhong Wu

Lyme disease, a typical tick-borne disease, imposes increasing global public health challenges. A growing body of theoretical models have been proposed to better understand various factors determining...

Spatio-temporal spread of infectious pathogens of humans

May 2017
Julien Arino

Spatio-temporal aspects in the propagation of infectious pathogens of humans are reviewed. Mathematical modelling of these issues using metapopulation models is presented....

Climate variability and infectious diseases nexus: Evidence from Sweden

May 2017
Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah | George Marbuah | Mwenya Mubanga

Many studies on the link between climate variability and infectious diseases are based on biophysical experiments, do not account for socio-economic factors and with little focus on developed countries....

In-host modeling

May 2017
Stanca M. Ciupe | Jane M. Heffernan

Understanding the mechanisms governing host-pathogen kinetics is important and can guide human interventions. In-host mathematical models, together with biological data, have been used in this endeavor....

Modelling the impact of antimalarial quality on the transmission of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum

May 2017
Aleisha R. Brock | Joshua V. Ross | Scott Greenhalgh | David P. Durham | Alison Galvani | Sunil Parikh | Adrian Esterman

The use of poor quality antimalarial medicines, including the use of non-recommended medicines for treatment such as sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy, undermines malaria control and elimination...

Mathematical modelling for Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis dynamics: A new analysis considering updated parameters and notified human Brazilian data

May 2017
Helio Junji Shimozako | Jianhong Wu | Eduardo Massad

Brazil is one of the highest endemic countries for Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis: according to the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the annual number of new human cases and deaths due to this disease...

A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

May 2017
Linda J.S. Allen

Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...

Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

May 2017
Fred Brauer

We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....

A risk-based model for predicting the impact of using condoms on the spread of sexually transmitted infections

February 2017
Asma Azizi | Karen Ríos-Soto | Anuj Mubayi | James M. Hyman

We create and analyze a mathematical model to understand the impact of condom-use and sexual behavior on the prevalence and spread of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs). STIs remain significant...

Modelling the HIV persistence through the network of lymphocyte recirculation in vivo

February 2017
Ying Huang | Chen Zhang | Jianhong Wu | Jie Lou

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is able to persist in cellular and/or anatomical viral reservoirs, despite the effective inhibition of virus replication by the antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here...

The relationship between intimate partner violence and HIV: A model-based evaluation

February 2017
Simon W. Rigby | Leigh F. Johnson

Many studies have shown that women who have experienced intimate partner violence (IPV) are at a greater risk of HIV, but the factors accounting for this association are unclear, and trials of interventions...

Mathematical models of SIR disease spread with combined non-sexual and sexual transmission routes

February 2017
Joel C. Miller

The emergence of Zika and Ebola demonstrates the importance of understanding the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper,...

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

February 2017
Alexander E. Zarebski | Peter Dawson | James M. McCaw | Robert Moss

Epidemics of seasonal influenza inflict a huge burden in temperate climes such as Melbourne (Australia) where there is also significant variability in their timing and magnitude. Particle filters combined...

Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment

February 2017
Victor M. Moreno | Baltazar Espinoza | Derdei Bichara | Susan A. Holechek | Carlos Castillo-Chavez

In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months....

A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases

February 2017
Fred Brauer

We formulate and analyze an age of infection model for epidemics of diseases transmitted by a vector, including the possibility of direct transmission as well. We show how to determine a basic reproduction...

A mumps model with seasonality in China

February 2017
Qianqian Qu | Cong Fang | Le Zhang | Wanru Jia | Jie Weng | Yong Li

Mumps, an infectious viral disease, classically manifested by inflammation of salivary glands and is best known as a common childhood viral disease with no specific treatment. Although it can be protected...

Unraveling the dose-response puzzle of L. monocytogenes: A mechanistic approach

October 2016
S.M. Ashrafur Rahman | Daniel Munther | Aamir Fazil | Ben Smith | Jianhong Wu

Food-borne disease outbreaks caused by Listeria monocytogenes continue to impose heavy burdens on public health in North America and globally. To explore the threat L. monocytogenes presents to the...

Controllability and stability analysis of large transcriptomic dynamic systems for host response to influenza infection in human

October 2016
Xiaodian Sun | Fang Hu | Shuang Wu | Xing Qiu | Patrice Linel | Hulin Wu

Gene regulatory networks are complex dynamic systems and the reverse-engineering of such networks from high-dimensional time course transcriptomic data have attracted researchers from various fields....

Is it growing exponentially fast? – Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics

October 2016
Gerardo Chowell | Cécile Viboud

The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics in order to generate reliable...

Emergence and spread of drug resistant influenza: A two-population game theoretical model

October 2016
Kamal Jnawali | Bryce Morsky | Keith Poore | Chris T. Bauch

The potential for emergence of antiviral drug resistance during influenza pandemics has raised great concern for public health. Widespread use of antiviral drugs is a significant factor in producing...

A comparative analysis of three different methods for the estimation of the basic reproduction number of dengue

October 2016
Rosangela Peregrina Sanches | Eduardo Massad

The basic reproduction number, R0, is defined as the expected number of secondary cases of a disease produced by a single infection in a completely susceptible population, and can be estimated in several...

Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

October 2016
Fred Brauer | Carlos Castillo-Chavez | Anuj Mubayi | Sherry Towers

Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It...

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