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Recent Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

Recently published articles from Infectious Disease Modelling.

COVID-19 contact tracing in a tertiary care hospital: A retrospective chart review

Pinki Tak | Jitendra Rohilla

Contact tracing is one of the strategies used to control COVID-19 pandemic. It played an important role in the beginning to identify all contacts and minimise the spread of the infection....

Systematic comparison of epidemic growth patterns using two different estimation approaches

Yiseul Lee | Kimberlyn Roosa | Gerardo Chowell

Different estimation approaches are frequently used to calibrate mathematical models to epidemiological data, particularly for analyzing infectious disease outbreaks. Here, we use two common methods...

Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya

Mark Kimathi | Samuel Mwalili | Viona Ojiambo | Duncan Kioi Gathungu

Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies...

Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data

Chloe Bracis | Eileen Burns | Mia Moore | David Swan | Daniel B. Reeves | Joshua T. Schiffer | Dobromir Dimitrov

In late March 2020, a “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive...

“Stay nearby or get checked”: A Covid-19 control strategy

Jan-Tino Brethouwer | Arnout van de Rijt | Roy Lindelauf | Robbert Fokkink

This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario...

Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Marcos Amaku | Dimas Tadeu Covas | Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho | Raymundo Soares Azevedo Neto | Claudio Struchiner | Annelies Wilder-Smith | Eduardo Massad

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control...

Can scavengers save zebras from anthrax? A modeling study

Crystal Mackey | Christopher Kribs

Namibia’s Etosha National Park (ENP) is home to many different animals such as lions, jackals, hyenas, zebras, elephants, etc. Each year, grazing animals are infected and die from anthrax caused by...

COVID-19: Analytics of contagion on inhomogeneous random social networks

T.R. Hurd

Motivated by the need for robust models of the Covid-19 epidemic that adequately reflect the extreme heterogeneity of humans and society, this paper presents a novel framework that treats a population...

Law of mass action and saturation in SIR model with application to Coronavirus modelling

Theodore Kolokolnikov | David Iron

When using SIR and related models, it is common to assume that the infection rate is proportional to the product of susceptible and infected individuals. While this assumption works at the onset of...

Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on SEIRD with ARIMA corrections

Maher Ala’raj | Munir Majdalawieh | Nishara Nizamuddin

The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) attracted worldwide attention. It has posed a significant challenge for the global economies, especially the healthcare sector. Even with a robust healthcare...

Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread

Rasim Alguliyev | Ramiz Aliguliyev | Farhad Yusifov

The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...

Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios

Brendan P. Dougherty | Ben A. Smith | Carolee A. Carson | Nicholas H. Ogden

While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19...

Identifying the measurements required to estimate rates of COVID-19 transmission, infection, and detection, using variational data assimilation

Eve Armstrong | Manuela Runge | Jaline Gerardin

We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus...

A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations

Abba B. Gumel | Enahoro A. Iboi | Calistus N. Ngonghala | Elamin H. Elbasha

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health...

An optimal control model with cost effectiveness analysis of Maize streak virus disease in maize plant

Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh | Assefa Sintayehu Kassa | Anteneh Asmare Godana

In this paper we formulated and analyzed an optimal deterministic eco-epidemiological model for the dynamics of maize streak virus (MSV) and examine the best strategy to fight maize population from...

Modeling the transmission of COVID-19 in the US – A case study

Chayu Yang | Jin Wang

We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The model incorporates both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways, and employs different...

Short-term forecast in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Application of a weighted and cumulative average daily growth rate to an exponential decay model

Nicola Bartolomeo | Paolo Trerotoli | Gabriella Serio

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the early stage in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic...

Statistical data driven approach of COVID-19 in Ecuador: R0 and Rt estimation via new method

Raúl Patricio Fernández-Naranjo | Eduardo Vásconez-González | Katherine Simbaña-Rivera | Lenin Gómez-Barreno | Juan S. Izquierdo-Condoy | Doménica Cevallos-Robalino | Esteban Ortiz-Prado

The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic....

COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models

Yue Xiang | Yonghong Jia | Linlin Chen | Lei Guo | Bizhen Shu | Enshen Long

The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...

A SIQ mathematical model on COVID-19 investigating the lockdown effect

Archana Singh Bhadauria | Rachana Pathak | Manisha Chaudhary

This research paper aims at studying the impact of lockdown on the dynamics of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Perceiving the pandemic situation...

Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 incidence and deaths in New York City

Sina Fathi-Kazerooni | Roberto Rojas-Cessa | Ziqian Dong | Vatcharapan Umpaichitra

In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by...

Contact tracing – Old models and new challenges

Johannes Müller | Mirjam Kretzschmar

Contact tracing is an effective method to control emerging infectious diseases. Since the 1980’s, modellers are developing a consistent theory for contact tracing, with the aim to find effective and...

Modeling transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal

Buddhi Pantha | Sunil Giri | Hem Raj Joshi | Naveen K. Vaidya

Even though vaccines against rabies are available, rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world, including Nepal....

On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques

Janyce Eunice Gnanvi | Kolawolé Valère Salako | Gaëtan Brezesky Kotanmi | Romain Glèlè Kakaï

Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019 (COVID-19), numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict...

Clarifying predictions for COVID-19 from testing data: The example of New York State

Quentin Griette | Pierre Magal

With the spread of COVID-19 across the world, a large amount of data on reported cases has become available. We are studying here a potential bias induced by the daily number of tests which may be insufficient...

A simple model for fitting mild, severe, and known cases during an epidemic with an application to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Matthew I. Betti | Jane M. Heffernan

One of the major difficulties with modelling an ongoing epidemic is that often data is limited or incomplete, making it hard to estimate key epidemic parameters and outcomes (e.g. attack rate, peak...

Predictive models on COVID 19: What Africans should do?

Habte Tadesse Likassa | Wen Xain | Xuan Tang | Gizachew Gobebo

In this study, predictive models are proposed to accurately estimate the confirmed cases and deaths due to of Corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa. The study proposed the predictive models to determine...

Assessing the future progression of COVID-19 in Iran and its neighbors using Bayesian models

Navid Feroze

The short term forecasts regarding different parameters of the COVID-19 are very important to make informed decisions. However, majority of the earlier contributions have used classical time series...

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 infection dynamics in Ghana: Impact evaluation of integrated government and individual level interventions

Duah Dwomoh | Samuel Iddi | Bright Adu | Justice Moses Aheto | Kojo Mensah Sedzro | Julius Fobil | Samuel Bosomprah

The raging COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most important threat to global health presently. Although there is currently a vaccine, preventive measures have been proposed to reduce the spread of infection...

COVID-19 intervention models: An initial aggressive treatment strategy for controlling the infection

Bismark Oduro | Vusi Mpendulo Magagula

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in December 2019. The disease has caused loss of many lives and has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. We develop simple COVID-19...

Forecasting the number of confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in Italy for the period from 19 May to 2 June 2020

Marco Triacca | Umberto Triacca

In this paper we forecast the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Italy in the time window from May 19 to June 2, 2020. In particular, we consider the forecast of the number of new daily...

SARS-COV-2 outbreak and control in Kenya - Mathematical model analysis

Rachel Waema Mbogo | Titus Okello Orwa

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health...

Hospitalization dynamics during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave: SIR modelling compared to Belgium, France, Italy, Switzerland and New York City data

Gregory Kozyreff

Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data...

SCHISTOX: An individual based model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis

Matthew Graham | Diepreye Ayabina | Tim CD. Lucas | Benjamin S. Collyer | Graham F. Medley | T. Deirdre Hollingsworth | Jaspreet Toor

A stochastic individual based model, SCHISTOX, has been developed for the study of schistosome transmission dynamics and the impact of control by mass drug administration. More novel aspects that can...

A metapopulation network model for the spreading of SARS-CoV-2: Case study for Ireland

Rory Humphries | Mary Spillane | Kieran Mulchrone | Sebastian Wieczorek | Micheal O’Riordain | Philipp Hövel

We present preliminary results on an all-Ireland network modelling approach to simulate the spreading the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), commonly known as the coronavirus....

Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction

Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh | Negesse Yizengaw Alemu

In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs

Salihu Sabiu Musa | Sania Qureshi | Shi Zhao | Abdullahi Yusuf | Umar Tasiu Mustapha | Daihai He

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...

Assessing effects of reopening policies on COVID-19 pandemic in Texas with a data-driven transmission model

Available online 23 February 2021
Duo Yu | Gen Zhu | Xueying Wang | Chenguang Zhang | Babak Soltanalizadeh | Xia Wang | Sanyi Tang | Hulin Wu

While the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to threaten public health and safety, every state has strategically reopened the business in the United States. It is urgent to evaluate...

Long, thin transmission chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 may go undetected for several weeks at low to moderate reproduction numbers: Implications for containment and elimination strategy

Available online 23 February 2021
Gerry F. Killeen | Patricia M. Kearney | Ivan J. Perry | Niall Conroy

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-1) infections almost always caused overt symptoms, so effective case and contact management enabled its effective eradication within months....

Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

K. Roosa | Y. Lee | R. Luo | A. Kirpich | R. Rothenberg | J.M. Hyman | P. Yan | G. Chowell

The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human...

Mathematical modeling and the transmission dynamics in predicting the Covid-19 - What next in combating the pandemic

A. Anirudh

Mathematical predictions in combating the epidemics are yet to reach its perfection. The rapid spread, the ways, and the procedures involved in containment of a pandemic demand the earliest understanding...

Capacity-need gap in hospital resources for varying mitigation and containment strategies in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic

Veenapani Rajeev Verma | Anuraag Saini | Sumirtha Gandhi | Umakant Dash | Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya

Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized...

Modelling the dynamics of exchanged novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) between regions in terms of time and space

Massimo Fioranelli | Maria Grazia Roccia | A. Beesham

To date, many models have been proposed which estimate the transmission risk of COVID-19 in terms of time; however, its dependency on space dimensions has been ignored. In this research, by multiplying...

Deterministic epidemic model for (SVCSyCAsyIR) pneumonia dynamics, with vaccination and temporal immunity

Dominic Otoo | Patrick Opoku | Sebil Charles | Asekiya Prince Kingsley

Streptococcus pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mobility and mortality in children under 6 years and the elderly especially in developing countries in which Ghana, the study area is not an exception.In...

Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

Lixiang Li | Zihang Yang | Zhongkai Dang | Cui Meng | Jingze Huang | Haotian Meng | Deyu Wang | Guanhua Chen | Jiaxuan Zhang | Haipeng Peng | Yiming Shao

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....

A simple model for COVID-19

Julien Arino | Stéphanie Portet

An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically...

Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus

Gerry F. Killeen | Samson S. Kiware

As every country in the world struggles with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential that as many people as possible understand the epidemic containment, elimination and exclusion strategies...

Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

Christopher E. Overton | Helena B. Stage | Shazaad Ahmad | Jacob Curran-Sebastian | Paul Dark | Rajenki Das | Elizabeth Fearon | Timothy Felton | Martyn Fyles | Nick Gent | Ian Hall | Thomas House | Hugo Lewkowicz | Xiaoxi Pang | Lorenzo Pellis | Robert Sawko | Andrew Ustianowski | Bindu Vekaria | Luke Webb

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...

Evaluation of the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan

Toshikazu Kuniya

In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 from the viewpoint of mathematical modelling. In Japan, it was announced during the period...

Mathematical modelling on diffusion and control of COVID–19

M. Veera Krishna

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for the spread and control of the coronavirus disease. An outbreak of COVID-19 has led to more than one million confirmed cases as of April 3rd, 2020....

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