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Recent Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

Recently published articles from Infectious Disease Modelling.

Optimal control strategies for preventing hepatitis B infection and reducing chronic liver cirrhosis incidence

Mst. Shanta Khatun | Md. Haider Ali Biswas

Advanced liver cirrhosis has become life-threatening among non-communicable diseases nowadays. Cirrhosis, the terminal stage of liver diseases in which the liver develops scarring as a result of various...

Mathematical model of zika virus dynamics with vector control and sensitivity analysis

Sudhanshu Kumar Biswas | Uttam Ghosh | Susmita Sarkar

In this paper, we have developed and analyzed a deterministic Zika model considering both vector and sexual transmission route with the effect of human awareness and vector control in the absence of...

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic SEITR epidemic model with multiple stages of infection and treatment

Olusegun Michael Otunuga | Mobolaji O. Ogunsolu

We present a mathematical analysis of the transmission of certain diseases using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-treated-recovered (SEITR) model with multiple stages of infection and treatment...

Controlling infection in predator-prey systems with transmission dynamics

M.-G. Cojocaru | T. Migot | A. Jaber

We propose in this paper a prophylactic treatment strategy for a predator-prey system. The objective is to fight against the propagation of an infectious disease within two populations, one of which...

Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication

Asma Azizi | Cesar Montalvo | Baltazar Espinoza | Yun Kang | Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed...

Deterministic epidemic model for (SVCSyCAsyIR) pneumonia dynamics, with vaccination and temporal immunity

Dominic Otoo | Patrick Opoku | Sebil Charles | Asekiya Prince Kingsley

Streptococcus pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mobility and mortality in children under 6 years and the elderly especially in developing countries in which Ghana, the study area is not an exception.In...

Discrete time forecasting of epidemics

Available online 8 January 2020
Daniel A.M. Villela

Forecasting in the domain of infectious diseases aims at estimating the number of cases ahead of time during an epidemic, hence fundamentally requires understanding its dynamics. In fact, estimates...

Estimating Epidemic Exponential Growth Rate And Basic Reproduction Number

Available online 8 January 2020
Junling Ma

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

Available online 7 January 2020
Stéphanie Portet

A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...

Releasing Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti to prevent the spread of dengue virus: a mathematical study

Available online 7 January 2020
Hong Zhang | Roger Lui

Wolbachia is a bacterium that is present in 60% of insects but it is not generally found in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector responsible for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and other...

Mathematical epidemiology in a data-rich world

Available online 7 January 2020
Julien Arino

I discuss the acquisition and use of “background” data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a pro-active approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring...

Modelling and Simulating Chikungunya Spread with An Unstructured Triangular Cellular Automata

Available online 3 January 2020
Gerardo Ortigoza | Fred Brauer | Iris Neri

In this work we propose a mathematical model to simulate Chikungunya spread; the spread model is implemented in a C++ cellular automata code defined on unstructured triangular grids and space visualizations...

Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection

Adeshina I. Adekunle | Michael T. Meehan | Emma S. McBryde

Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae....

What could re-infection tell us about R0? A modeling case-study of syphilis transmission

Joshua Feldman | Sharmistha Mishra

Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic...

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Ashleigh R. Tuite | Alexander G. Watts | Kamran Khan | Isaac I. Bogoch

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination,...

Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic

Celeste Vallejo | Carl A.B. Pearson | James Koopman | Thomas J. Hladish

As polio-endemic countries move towards elimination, infrequent first infections and incomplete surveillance make it difficult to determine when the virus has been eliminated from the population. Eichner...

Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015

Hyunsun Lee

South Korea was free of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) until 2015. The MERS outbreak in South Korea during 2015 was the largest outbreak of the Coronavirus outside the Middle East. The...

Investigation of temporal and spatial heterogeneities of the immune responses to Bordetella pertussis infection in the lung and spleen of mice via analysis and modeling of dynamic microarray gene expression data

Nan Deng | Juan C. Ramirez | Michelle Carey | Hongyu Miao | Cesar A. Arias | Andrew P. Rice | Hulin Wu

Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis) is the causative agent of pertussis, also referenced as whooping cough. Although pertussis has been appropriately controlled by routine immunization of infants, it...

Projected effectiveness of HIV detection during early infection and rapid ART initiation among MSM and transgender women in Peru: A modeling study

Dobromir Dimitrov | Daniel Wood | Angela Ulrich | David A. Swan | Blythe Adamson | Javier R. Lama | Jorge Sanchez | Ann Duerr

The Sabes study, a treatment as prevention intervention in Peru, tested the hypothesis that initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early in HIV infection when viral load is high, would markedly reduce...

Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria

F.B. Agusto | M.C.A. Leite

This paper presents a deterministic model for Neisseria meningitidis, a bacterium that causes meningitis. The model was parameterized using data from the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria. Optimal...

A sexually transmitted infection model with long-term partnerships in homogeneous and heterogenous populations

K.F. Gurski

Population models for sexually transmitted infections frequently use a transmission model that assumes an inherent partnership length of zero. However, in a population with long-term partnerships, the...

A threshold delay model of HIV infection of newborn infants through breastfeeding

Alexandra Teslya | Redouane Qesmi | Jianhong Wu | Jane M. Heffernan

The breast milk of HIV infected women contains HIV virus particles, therefore children can become infected through breastfeeding. We develop a mathematical epidemiological model of HIV infection in...

Probabilistic modeling for an integrated temporary acquired immunity with norovirus epidemiological data

Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah | Benedict Barnes | Robert Abaidoo | Hald Tine | Anders Dalsgaard | Anders Permin | Torben Wilde Schou

Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness. In this study, a probabilistic model was set...

A singular perturbation approach to epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

Fred Brauer

In vector-borne epidemic models there is often a substantial difference between the vector and host time scales. This makes it possible to use the quasi-steady-state to obtain final size relations....

Invasion reproductive numbers for periodic epidemic models

Christopher Mitchell | Christopher Kribs

There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population. In studying models for such cases, one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population...

A mathematical modelling study of HIV infection in two heterosexual age groups in Kenya

E.O. Omondi | R.W. Mbogo | L.S. Luboobi

The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups. In the present manuscript, we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between...

Invasion reproductive numbers for discrete-time models

Omomayowa Olawoyin | Christopher Kribs

Although invasion reproductive numbers (IRNs) are utilized frequently in continuous-time models with multiple interacting pathogens, they are yet to be explored in discrete-time systems. Here, we extend...

Modeling transmission dynamics of lyme disease: Multiple vectors, seasonality, and vector mobility

Aileen Nguyen | Joseph Mahaffy | Naveen K. Vaidya

Lyme disease is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in the United States, which humans acquire from an infected tick of the genus Ixodes (primarily Ixodes scapularis). While previous studies have...

Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

Attila Dénes | Abba B. Gumel

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases...

The role of behavioral changes and prompt treatment in the control of STIs

Fernando Saldaña | Ignacio Barradas

In this paper, we study general recovery functions and treatment in the dynamics of an SIS model for sexually transmitted infections with nonzero partnership length. It is shown how partnership dynamics...

Long-term predictors of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: A data mining approach

Olav Titus Muurlink | Peter Stephenson | Mohammad Zahirul Islam | Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson

The effects of weather variables on the transmission of vector-borne diseases are complex. Relationships can be non-linear, specific to particular geographic locations, and involve long lag times between...

Dynamic model of tuberculosis considering multi-drug resistance and their applications

Yi Yu | Yi Shi | Wei Yao

Infectious diseases have always been a problem that threatens people's health and tuberculosis is one of the major. With the development of medical scientific research, drug-resistant infectious diseases...

Use of routine HIV testing data for early detection of emerging HIV epidemics in high-risk subpopulations: A concept demonstration study

Houssein H. Ayoub | Susanne F. Awad | Laith J. Abu-Raddad

HIV epidemics in hard-to-reach high-risk subpopulations are often discovered years after epidemic emergence in settings with poor surveillance infrastructure. Using hypothesis-generation modeling, we...

Comparison of different strategies for controlling HIV/AIDS spreading in MSM

Jie Lou | Jinjin Cheng | Yan Li | Chen Zhang | Hui Xing | Yuhua Ruan | Yiming Shao

As proposed in the UNAIDSs 2014 report, to end global AIDS epidemic by 2030, 90% of people living with HIV need to be diagnosed, 90% of the diagnosed need to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and...

Mathematics of dengue transmission dynamics: Roles of vector vertical transmission and temperature fluctuations

Rahim Taghikhani | Abba B. Gumel

A new deterministic model is designed and used to gain insight into the effect of seasonal variations in temperature and vector vertical transmission on the transmission dynamics of dengue disease....

Treatment for HIV prevention study in southwestern areas of China

Huanhuan Chen | Xiaoyi Yang | Qiuying Zhu | Xinghua Wu | Li Chen | Huaxiang Lu | Liuhong Luo | Guanghua Lan | Xianming Ge | Zhenzhu Tang | Zhiyong Shen | Stephen W. Pan | Hui Xing | Yuhua Ruan | Yiming Shao | Wenmin Yang

China has ambitious to achieve significant reductions in HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality by adopting the World Health Organization's “Treat All” approach. Such a prevention strategy is needed...

The epidemiological models of Karl-Peter Hadeler

Klaus Dietz

The most frequently cited articles out of KP Hadeler's 45 papers with epidemiological applications are summarized. Parasitic diseases which increase the death rate of the hosts proportional to the integer...

A primer on the use of probability generating functions in infectious disease modeling

Joel C. Miller

We explore the application of probability generating functions (PGFs) to invasive processes, focusing on infectious disease introduced into large populations. Our goal is to acquaint the reader with...

Cooperative system analysis of the Ebola virus epidemic model

Karima Kabli | Soumia El Moujaddid | Khadija Niri | Abdessamad Tridane

This paper aims to study the global stability of an Ebola virus epidemic model. Although this epidemic ended in September 2015, it devastated several West African countries and mobilized the international...

Modelling the dynamics of population viral load measures under HIV treatment as prevention

Ganna Rozhnova | Marilena Anastasaki | Mirjam Kretzschmar

In 2011 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published guidelines for the use of population viral load (PVL), community viral load (CVL) and monitored viral load (MVL), defined as the...

A primer on multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems

Winston Garira

The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers: (a) the conceptual framework frontier, (b) the...

A signature for biological heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection?

Nico Nagelkerke | Laith J. Abu-Raddad | Susanne F. Awad | Vivian Black | Brian Williams

Data on female sex workers and sero-discordant couples indicate a pattern of waning of the risk of HIV infection with longer duration of exposure to infected partners. Understanding risk of HIV acquisition...

Another look at silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations

Dominika A. Kalkowska | Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens | Kimberly M. Thompson

Silent circulation of polioviruses complicates the polio endgame and motivates analyses that explore the probability of undetected circulation for different scenarios. A recent analysis suggested a...

The influence of mobility among high-risk populations on HIV transmission in Western Kenya

Anna Bershteyn | Kennedy K. Mutai | Adam N. Akullian | Daniel J. Klein | Britta L. Jewell | Samuel M. Mwalili

Western Kenya suffers a highly endemic and also very heterogeneous epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients are known to be at high risk...

Duration of a minor epidemic

William Tritch | Linda J.S. Allen

Disease outbreaks in stochastic SIR epidemic models are characterized as either minor or major. When ℛ0<1, all epidemics are minor, whereas if ℛ0>1, they can be minor or major. In 1955, Whittle derived...

Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters

Julia Reis | Jeffrey Shaman

While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks, most other respiratory viruses have seldom been simulated. In this study, we provide an...

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines

Hanl Lee | Angelyn Lao

Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the...

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART

Simon de Montigny | Marie-Claude Boily | Benoît R. Mâsse | Kate M. Mitchell | Dobromir T. Dimitrov

The epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient...

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