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Recent Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

Recently published articles from Infectious Disease Modelling.

Deterministic epidemic model for (SVCSyCAsyIR) pneumonia dynamics, with vaccination and temporal immunity

2020
Dominic Otoo | Patrick Opoku | Sebil Charles | Asekiya Prince Kingsley

Streptococcus pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mobility and mortality in children under 6 years and the elderly especially in developing countries in which Ghana, the study area is not an exception.In...

Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication

2020
Asma Azizi | Cesar Montalvo | Baltazar Espinoza | Yun Kang | Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed...

Controlling infection in predator-prey systems with transmission dynamics

2020
M.-G. Cojocaru | T. Migot | A. Jaber

We propose in this paper a prophylactic treatment strategy for a predator-prey system. The objective is to fight against the propagation of an infectious disease within two populations, one of which...

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic SEITR epidemic model with multiple stages of infection and treatment

2020
Olusegun Michael Otunuga | Mobolaji O. Ogunsolu

We present a mathematical analysis of the transmission of certain diseases using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-treated-recovered (SEITR) model with multiple stages of infection and treatment...

Mathematical model of zika virus dynamics with vector control and sensitivity analysis

2020
Sudhanshu Kumar Biswas | Uttam Ghosh | Susmita Sarkar

In this paper, we have developed and analyzed a deterministic Zika model considering both vector and sexual transmission route with the effect of human awareness and vector control in the absence of...

Optimal control strategies for preventing hepatitis B infection and reducing chronic liver cirrhosis incidence

2020
Mst. Shanta Khatun | Md. Haider Ali Biswas

Advanced liver cirrhosis has become life-threatening among non-communicable diseases nowadays. Cirrhosis, the terminal stage of liver diseases in which the liver develops scarring as a result of various...

Modelling and simulating Chikungunya spread with an unstructured triangular cellular automata

2020
Gerardo Ortigoza | Fred Brauer | Iris Neri

In this work we propose a mathematical model to simulate Chikungunya spread; the spread model is implemented in a C++ cellular automata code defined on unstructured triangular grids and space visualizations...

Releasing Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti to prevent the spread of dengue virus: A mathematical study

2020
Hong Zhang | Roger Lui

Wolbachia is a bacterium that is present in 60% of insects but it is not generally found in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector responsible for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and other...

Mathematical epidemiology in a data-rich world

2020
Julien Arino

I discuss the acquisition and use of “background” data in mathematical epidemiology models, advocating a proactive approach to the incorporation of said data. I illustrate various mechanisms for acquiring...

A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

2020
Stéphanie Portet

A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...

Discrete time forecasting of epidemics

2020
Daniel A.M. Villela

Forecasting in the domain of infectious diseases aims at estimating the number of cases ahead of time during an epidemic, hence fundamentally requires understanding its dynamics. In fact, estimates...

Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

2020
Junling Ma

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

2020
Biao Tang | Nicola Luigi Bragazzi | Qian Li | Sanyi Tang | Yanni Xiao | Jianhong Wu

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...

Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020

2020
K. Roosa | Y. Lee | R. Luo | A. Kirpich | R. Rothenberg | J.M. Hyman | P. Yan | G. Chowell

The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the COVID-19 epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human...

Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020
Kenji Mizumoto | Gerardo Chowell

An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak...

Bayesian inference for dynamical systems

2020
Weston C. Roda

Bayesian inference is a common method for conducting parameter estimation for dynamical systems. Despite the prevalent use of Bayesian inference for performing parameter estimation for dynamical systems,...

Impact of dogs with deltamethrin-impregnated collars on prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis

2020
Mondal Hasan Zahid | Christopher M. Kribs

Leishmaniasis is a vector borne zoonosis which is classified as a neglected tropical disease. Among the three most common forms of the disease, Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most threatening to...

IDM editorial statement on the 2019-nCoV

2020
Yiming Shao | Jianhong Wu

Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

2020
Weston C. Roda | Marie B. Varughese | Donglin Han | Michael Y. Li

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...

Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

2020
Lixiang Li | Zihang Yang | Zhongkai Dang | Cui Meng | Jingze Huang | Haotian Meng | Deyu Wang | Guanhua Chen | Jiaxuan Zhang | Haipeng Peng | Yiming Shao

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....

Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies

2020
Francesca Scarabel | Lorenzo Pellis | Nicola Luigi Bragazzi | Jianhong Wu

After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th, 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health...

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

2020
Steffen E. Eikenberry | Marina Mancuso | Enahoro Iboi | Tin Phan | Keenan Eikenberry | Yang Kuang | Eric Kostelich | Abba B. Gumel

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....

A simple model for COVID-19

2020
Julien Arino | Stéphanie Portet

An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically...

A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period

2020
Z. Liu | P. Magal | O. Seydi | G. Webb

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop...

Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th–March 30th, 2020

2020
César V. Munayco | Amna Tariq | Richard Rothenberg | Gabriela G. Soto-Cabezas | Mary F. Reyes | Andree Valle | Leonardo Rojas-Mezarina | César Cabezas | Manuel Loayza | Gerardo Chowell | Dante Castro Garro | Kevin Martel Vasquez | Edith Solis Castro | Isabel Sandoval Ordinola | Javier Masias Mimbela | Kely Meza Cornejo | Fabiola Caruajulca Quijano | Lenin La Torre Rosillo | Luis Ordoñez Ibarguen | Mario Vasquez Dominguez | Rommell Veintimilla Gonzalez Seminario | Martha Calderón Silva | Mayra Saavedra Dreyfus | Miguel Luna Pineda | Milagros Durand | Noemí Janampa | Jesus Chuquihuaccha | Susan Mateo Lizarbe | David Enriquez Cusi | Idania Mamani Pilco | Alex Jaramillo | Karina Vargas | Oswaldo Cabanillas | Juan Arrasco | María Vargas | Willy Ramos

The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four months. The daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly...

A novel IDEA: The impact of serial interval on a modified-Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (m-IDEA) model for projections of daily COVID-19 cases

2020
Ben A. Smith

The SARS-CoV-2 virus causes the disease COVID-19, and has caused high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Empirical models are useful tools to predict future trends of disease progression such as COVID-19...

Targeted adaptive isolation strategy for COVID-19 pandemic

2020
Zoltan Neufeld | Hamid Khataee | Andras Czirok

We investigate the effects of social distancing in controlling the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic using a simple susceptible-infected-removed epidemic model. We show that an alternative or complementary...

Deterministic approaches for head lice infestations and treatments

2020
Noemi Castelletti | Maria Vittoria Barbarossa

Pediculus humanus capitis are human ectoparasites which cause infestations, mostly in children, worldwide. Understanding the life cycle of head lice is an important step in knowing how to treat lice...

Mathematical modeling and the transmission dynamics in predicting the Covid-19 - What next in combating the pandemic

2020
A. Anirudh

Mathematical predictions in combating the epidemics are yet to reach its perfection. The rapid spread, the ways, and the procedures involved in containment of a pandemic demand the earliest understanding...

Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it

2020
Gerry F. Killeen

Countries with ambitious national strategies to crush the curve of their Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic trajectories include China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand...

Mathematical modelling on phase based transmissibility of Coronavirus

2020
M. Veera Krishna | J. Prakash

Mathematical and epidemiological simulation plays a pivotal role in predicting, anticipating, and controlling present and future epidemics. To better understand and model the dynamics of a specific...

Why lockdown? Why national unity? Why global solidarity? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the 2019 novel coronavirus

2020
Gerry F. Killeen | Samson S. Kiware

As every country in the world struggles with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential that as many people as possible understand the epidemic containment, elimination and exclusion strategies...

Stochastic model of measles transmission dynamics with double dose vaccination

2020
Getachew Teshome Tilahun | Seleshi Demie | Alemayehu Eyob

In this paper we developed a stochastic model of measles transmission dynamics with double dose vaccination. The total population in this model was sub-divided in to five compartments, namely SusceptibleS(t),...

Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

2020
Christopher E. Overton | Helena B. Stage | Shazaad Ahmad | Jacob Curran-Sebastian | Paul Dark | Rajenki Das | Elizabeth Fearon | Timothy Felton | Martyn Fyles | Nick Gent | Ian Hall | Thomas House | Hugo Lewkowicz | Xiaoxi Pang | Lorenzo Pellis | Robert Sawko | Andrew Ustianowski | Bindu Vekaria | Luke Webb

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...

Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19: A next generation matrix approach

2020
David N. Fisman | Amy L. Greer | Ashleigh R. Tuite

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial. Masks are thought to have two modes of effect: they prevent infection with COVID-19...

An evaluation of COVID-19 in Italy: A data-driven modeling analysis

2020
Yongmei Ding | Liyuan Gao

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that has been spreading worldwide since December 2019 has sickened millions of people, lock down major cities and some countries, prompted unprecedented global travel...

Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation

2020
John S. Dagpunar

In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500- day period. This...

Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia

2020
Elinor Aviv-Sharon | Asaph Aharoni

Several months into the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this work provides a simple and direct projection of the outbreak spreading potential and the pandemic cessation dates...

Contribution of high risk groups’ unmet needs may be underestimated in epidemic models without risk turnover: A mechanistic modelling analysis

2020
Jesse Knight | Stefan D. Baral | Sheree Schwartz | Linwei Wang | Huiting Ma | Katherine Young | Harry Hausler | Sharmistha Mishra

Epidemic models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable...

Adequacy of Logistic models for describing the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic

2020
Abdallah Abusam | Razan Abusam | Bader Al-Anzi

Logistic models have been widely used for modelling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This study used the data for Kuwait to assess the adequacy of the two most commonly used logistic models (Verhulst...

Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China

2020
Qihui Yang | Chunlin Yi | Aram Vajdi | Lee W. Cohnstaedt | Hongyu Wu | Xiaolong Guo | Caterina M. Scoglio

As an emerging infectious disease, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has developed into a global pandemic. During the initial spreading of the virus in China, we demonstrated the ensemble Kalman...

Evaluation of the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan

2020
Toshikazu Kuniya

In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 from the viewpoint of mathematical modelling. In Japan, it was announced during the period...

Stochastic modelling for predicting COVID-19 prevalence in East Africa Countries

2020
Rediat Takele

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has continued to be a global threat to public health. As the matter of fact, it needs unreserved effort to monitor the prevalence of the virus. However, applying an effective...

Mathematical modelling on diffusion and control of COVID–19

2020
M. Veera Krishna

In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for the spread and control of the coronavirus disease. An outbreak of COVID-19 has led to more than one million confirmed cases as of April 3rd, 2020....

Capacity-need gap in hospital resources for varying mitigation and containment strategies in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic

2020
Veenapani Rajeev Verma | Anuraag Saini | Sumirtha Gandhi | Umakant Dash | Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya

Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized...

Prediction of the final size for COVID-19 epidemic using machine learning: A case study of Egypt

2020
Lamiaa A. Amar | Ashraf A. Taha | Marwa Y. Mohamed

COVID-19 is spreading within the sort of an enormous epidemic for the globe. This epidemic infects a lot of individuals in Egypt. The World Health Organization states that COVID-19 could be spread from...

The Covid-19 outbreak in Spain. A simple dynamics model, some lessons, and a theoretical framework for control response

2020
Antonio Guirao

Spain is among the countries worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, with one of the highest rate of infections and deaths per million inhabitants. First positive was reported on late January 2020. Mid...

Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number

2020
Shelby R. Buckman | Reuven Glick | Kevin J. Lansing | Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau | Lily M. Seitelman

We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the...

A multivariate analysis on spatiotemporal evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil

2020
Marcio Luis Ferreira Nascimento

This data-driven work aims to analyze and classify the spatiotemporal distribution of all Brazilian states considering data so diverse as the number of Covid-19 cases, deaths, confirmed cases per 100 k...

Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic

2020
Axel Brandenburg

The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three...

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