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Recent Infectious Disease Modelling Articles

Recently published articles from Infectious Disease Modelling.

Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic

Celeste Vallejo | Carl A.B. Pearson | James Koopman | Thomas J. Hladish

As polio-endemic countries move towards elimination, infrequent first infections and incomplete surveillance make it difficult to determine when the virus has been eliminated from the population. Eichner...

Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015

Hyunsun Lee

South Korea was free of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) until 2015. The MERS outbreak in South Korea during 2015 was the largest outbreak of the Coronavirus outside the Middle East. The...

Investigation of temporal and spatial heterogeneities of the immune responses to Bordetella pertussis infection in the lung and spleen of mice via analysis and modeling of dynamic microarray gene expression data

Nan Deng | Juan C. Ramirez | Michelle Carey | Hongyu Miao | Cesar A. Arias | Andrew P. Rice | Hulin Wu

Bordetella pertussis (B. pertussis) is the causative agent of pertussis, also referenced as whooping cough. Although pertussis has been appropriately controlled by routine immunization of infants, it...

Projected effectiveness of HIV detection during early infection and rapid ART initiation among MSM and transgender women in Peru: A modeling study

Dobromir Dimitrov | Daniel Wood | Angela Ulrich | David A. Swan | Blythe Adamson | Javier R. Lama | Jorge Sanchez | Ann Duerr

The Sabes study, a treatment as prevention intervention in Peru, tested the hypothesis that initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early in HIV infection when viral load is high, would markedly reduce...

Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria

F.B. Agusto | M.C.A. Leite

This paper presents a deterministic model for Neisseria meningitidis, a bacterium that causes meningitis. The model was parameterized using data from the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria. Optimal...

A sexually transmitted infection model with long-term partnerships in homogeneous and heterogenous populations

K.F. Gurski

Population models for sexually transmitted infections frequently use a transmission model that assumes an inherent partnership length of zero. However, in a population with long-term partnerships, the...

A threshold delay model of HIV infection of newborn infants through breastfeeding

Alexandra Teslya | Redouane Qesmi | Jianhong Wu | Jane M. Heffernan

The breast milk of HIV infected women contains HIV virus particles, therefore children can become infected through breastfeeding. We develop a mathematical epidemiological model of HIV infection in...

Probabilistic modeling for an integrated temporary acquired immunity with norovirus epidemiological data

Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah | Benedict Barnes | Robert Abaidoo | Hald Tine | Anders Dalsgaard | Anders Permin | Torben Wilde Schou

Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to illness. In this study, a probabilistic model was set...

A singular perturbation approach to epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

Fred Brauer

In vector-borne epidemic models there is often a substantial difference between the vector and host time scales. This makes it possible to use the quasi-steady-state to obtain final size relations....

Invasion reproductive numbers for periodic epidemic models

Christopher Mitchell | Christopher Kribs

There are many cases within epidemiology where infections compete to persist within a population. In studying models for such cases, one of the goals is to determine which infections can invade a population...

A mathematical modelling study of HIV infection in two heterosexual age groups in Kenya

E.O. Omondi | R.W. Mbogo | L.S. Luboobi

The control of HIV demands different interventions for different age groups. In the present manuscript, we formulate and analyze a mathematical compartmental models of HIV transmission within and between...

Invasion reproductive numbers for discrete-time models

Omomayowa Olawoyin | Christopher Kribs

Although invasion reproductive numbers (IRNs) are utilized frequently in continuous-time models with multiple interacting pathogens, they are yet to be explored in discrete-time systems. Here, we extend...

Modeling transmission dynamics of lyme disease: Multiple vectors, seasonality, and vector mobility

Aileen Nguyen | Joseph Mahaffy | Naveen K. Vaidya

Lyme disease is the most prevalent tick-borne disease in the United States, which humans acquire from an infected tick of the genus Ixodes (primarily Ixodes scapularis). While previous studies have...

Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease

Attila Dénes | Abba B. Gumel

The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases...

The role of behavioral changes and prompt treatment in the control of STIs

Fernando Saldaña | Ignacio Barradas

In this paper, we study general recovery functions and treatment in the dynamics of an SIS model for sexually transmitted infections with nonzero partnership length. It is shown how partnership dynamics...

What could re-infection tell us about R0? a modeling case-study of syphilis transmission

Available online 17 September 2019
Joshua Feldman | Sharmistha Mishra

Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection. We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number (R0). First we solved a generic, deterministic...

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: a modeling study

Available online 12 September 2019
Ashleigh R. Tuite | Alexander G. Watts | Kamran Khan | Isaac I. Bogoch

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination,...

Long-term predictors of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: A data mining approach

Olav Titus Muurlink | Peter Stephenson | Mohammad Zahirul Islam | Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson

The effects of weather variables on the transmission of vector-borne diseases are complex. Relationships can be non-linear, specific to particular geographic locations, and involve long lag times between...

Effects of multiple transmission pathways on Zika dynamics

Omomayowa Olawoyin | Christopher Kribs

Although the Zika virus is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of infected female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, it can also be sexually and vertically transmitted within both populations. In...

The effect of the infection within the individual host on its propagation in the population

Franciane Azevedo | Marcos Amaku | Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho | Luis Fernandez Lopez | Eduardo Massad

We consider nested or multiscale models to study the effect of the temporal evolution of the disease within the host in the population dynamics of the disease, for one and two infectious agents. We...

Dynamic model of tuberculosis considering multi-drug resistance and their applications

Yi Yu | Yi Shi | Wei Yao

Infectious diseases have always been a problem that threatens people's health and tuberculosis is one of the major. With the development of medical scientific research, drug-resistant infectious diseases...

Use of routine HIV testing data for early detection of emerging HIV epidemics in high-risk subpopulations: A concept demonstration study

Houssein H. Ayoub | Susanne F. Awad | Laith J. Abu-Raddad

HIV epidemics in hard-to-reach high-risk subpopulations are often discovered years after epidemic emergence in settings with poor surveillance infrastructure. Using hypothesis-generation modeling, we...

Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis

Jemal Mohammed-Awel | Folashade Agusto | Ronald E. Mickens | Abba B. Gumel

The large-scale use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), over the last two decades, has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria incidence globally. However,...

Comparison of different strategies for controlling HIV/AIDS spreading in MSM

Jie Lou | Jinjin Cheng | Yan Li | Chen Zhang | Hui Xing | Yuhua Ruan | Yiming Shao

As proposed in the UNAIDSs 2014 report, to end global AIDS epidemic by 2030, 90% of people living with HIV need to be diagnosed, 90% of the diagnosed need to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and...

Mathematics of dengue transmission dynamics: Roles of vector vertical transmission and temperature fluctuations

Rahim Taghikhani | Abba B. Gumel

A new deterministic model is designed and used to gain insight into the effect of seasonal variations in temperature and vector vertical transmission on the transmission dynamics of dengue disease....

Treatment for HIV prevention study in southwestern areas of China

Huanhuan Chen | Xiaoyi Yang | Qiuying Zhu | Xinghua Wu | Li Chen | Huaxiang Lu | Liuhong Luo | Guanghua Lan | Xianming Ge | Zhenzhu Tang | Zhiyong Shen | Stephen W. Pan | Hui Xing | Yuhua Ruan | Yiming Shao | Wenmin Yang

China has ambitious to achieve significant reductions in HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality by adopting the World Health Organization's “Treat All” approach. Such a prevention strategy is needed...

The epidemiological models of Karl-Peter Hadeler

Klaus Dietz

The most frequently cited articles out of KP Hadeler's 45 papers with epidemiological applications are summarized. Parasitic diseases which increase the death rate of the hosts proportional to the integer...

Adoption costs of new vaccines - A Stackelberg dynamic game with risk-perception transition states

M.-G. Cojocaru | S. Athar | E.W. Thommes

Vaccination has become an integral part of public health, since an increase in overall vaccination in a given population contributes to a decline in infectious diseases and mortality. Vaccination also...

A primer on the use of probability generating functions in infectious disease modeling

Joel C. Miller

We explore the application of probability generating functions (PGFs) to invasive processes, focusing on infectious disease introduced into large populations. Our goal is to acquaint the reader with...

Cooperative system analysis of the Ebola virus epidemic model

Karima Kabli | Soumia El Moujaddid | Khadija Niri | Abdessamad Tridane

This paper aims to study the global stability of an Ebola virus epidemic model. Although this epidemic ended in September 2015, it devastated several West African countries and mobilized the international...

Modelling the dynamics of population viral load measures under HIV treatment as prevention

Ganna Rozhnova | Marilena Anastasaki | Mirjam Kretzschmar

In 2011 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published guidelines for the use of population viral load (PVL), community viral load (CVL) and monitored viral load (MVL), defined as the...

A primer on multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems

Winston Garira

The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers: (a) the conceptual framework frontier, (b) the...

A signature for biological heterogeneity in susceptibility to HIV infection?

Nico Nagelkerke | Laith J. Abu-Raddad | Susanne F. Awad | Vivian Black | Brian Williams

Data on female sex workers and sero-discordant couples indicate a pattern of waning of the risk of HIV infection with longer duration of exposure to infected partners. Understanding risk of HIV acquisition...

Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

Tiffany Leung | Patricia T. Campbell | Barry D. Hughes | Federico Frascoli | James M. McCaw

In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and...

Another look at silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations

Dominika A. Kalkowska | Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens | Kimberly M. Thompson

Silent circulation of polioviruses complicates the polio endgame and motivates analyses that explore the probability of undetected circulation for different scenarios. A recent analysis suggested a...

The influence of mobility among high-risk populations on HIV transmission in Western Kenya

Anna Bershteyn | Kennedy K. Mutai | Adam N. Akullian | Daniel J. Klein | Britta L. Jewell | Samuel M. Mwalili

Western Kenya suffers a highly endemic and also very heterogeneous epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients are known to be at high risk...

The analysis of a drug transmission model with family education and public health education

Jun Li | Mingju Ma

In this paper, we formulate a six dimensional drug transmission model to study the effect of family education and public health education. The dynamical behaviors of the model are discussed in terms...

Duration of a minor epidemic

William Tritch | Linda J.S. Allen

Disease outbreaks in stochastic SIR epidemic models are characterized as either minor or major. When ℛ0<1, all epidemics are minor, whereas if ℛ0>1, they can be minor or major. In 1955, Whittle derived...

Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters

Julia Reis | Jeffrey Shaman

While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks, most other respiratory viruses have seldom been simulated. In this study, we provide an...

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines

Hanl Lee | Angelyn Lao

Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the...

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART

Simon de Montigny | Marie-Claude Boily | Benoît R. Mâsse | Kate M. Mitchell | Dobromir T. Dimitrov

The epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient...

Relatedness of the incidence decay with exponential adjustment (IDEA) model, “Farr's law” and SIR compartmental difference equation models

Mauricio Santillana | Ashleigh Tuite | Tahmina Nasserie | Paul Fine | David Champredon | Leonid Chindelevitch | Jonathan Dushoff | David Fisman

Mathematical models are often regarded as recent innovations in the description and analysis of infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics, but simple mathematical expressions have been in use for projection...

Adult female syphilis prevalence, congenital syphilis case incidence and adverse birth outcomes, Mongolia 2000–2016: Estimates using the Spectrum STI tool

Erdenetungalag Enkhbat | Eline L. Korenromp | Jugderjav Badrakh | Setsen Zayasaikhan | Purevsuren Baya | Enkhjargal Orgiokhuu | Narantuya Jadambaa | Sergelen Munkhbaatar | Delgermaa Khishigjargal | Narantuya Khad | Guy Mahiané | Naoko Ishikawa | Davaalkham Jagdagsuren | Melanie M. Taylor

Mongolia's health ministry prioritizes control of Sexually Transmitted Infections, including syphilis screening and treatment in antenatal care (ANC)....

Mathematical analysis of a model for zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis

November 2017
Nafiu Hussaini | Kamaldeen Okuneye | Abba B. Gumel

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL), caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum and transmitted to humans and reservoir hosts by female sandflies, is endemic in many parts of the world (notably...

Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks

November 2017
Eduardo Massad | Marcos Amaku | Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho | Claudio José Struchiner | Luis Fernandez Lopez | Annelies Wilder-Smith | Marcelo Nascimento Burattini

In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections,...

Structural sensitivity in HIV modeling: A case study of vaccination

November 2017
Cora L. Bernard | Margaret L. Brandeau

Structural assumptions in infectious disease models, such as the choice of network or compartmental model type or the inclusion of different types of heterogeneity across individuals, might affect model...

Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations

November 2017
Celeste Vallejo | James Keesling | James Koopman | Burton Singer

Small populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult, threatening polio eradication. Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections. It is currently...

Time-varying and state-dependent recovery rates in epidemiological models

November 2017
Scott Greenhalgh | Troy Day

Differential equation models of infectious disease have undergone many theoretical extensions that are invaluable for the evaluation of disease spread. For instance, while one traditionally uses a bilinear...

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