Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks
September 2024
The basic reproduction number, R0, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R0 from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation...
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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models
September 2024
During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...
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Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy
September 2024
In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most...
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Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution
September 2024
The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale...
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Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan
September 2024
Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...
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Ebola virus disease model with a nonlinear incidence rate and density-dependent treatment
September 2024
This paper studies an Ebola epidemic model with an exponential nonlinear incidence function that considers the efficacy and the behaviour change. The current model also incorporates a new density-dependent...
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Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical model
September 2024
Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the virus. While individuals...
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Integrating immunoinformatics and computational epitope prediction for a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus
September 2024
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine...
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A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico
September 2024
Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border...
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An effectiveness study of vaccination and quarantine combination strategies for containing mpox transmission on simulated college campuses
September 2024
The ongoing transmission of mpox in specific countries and regions necessitates urgent action. It is essential to implement targeted containment strategies that concentrate on high-risk populations...
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An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave
September 2024
The structure of age groups and social contacts of the total population influenced infection scales and hospital-bed requirements, especially influenced severe infections and deaths during the global...
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Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.
September 2024
Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the...
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Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2
September 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, disproportionately affected certain segments of society, particularly the elderly population (which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms...
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Predicting influenza-like illness trends based on sentinel surveillance data in China from 2011 to 2019: A modelling and comparative study1
September 2024
Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with a significant global disease burden. Additionally, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)...
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Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey
June 2024
Key epidemiological parameters, including the effective reproduction number, R(t), and the instantaneous growth rate, r(t), generated from an ensemble of models, have been informing public health policy...
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Unravelling COVID-19 waves in Rio de Janeiro city: Qualitative insights from nonlinear dynamic analysis
June 2024
Since the COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in 2019, it has rapidly spread around the world. Many countries implemented several measures to try to control the virus spreading. The healthcare system...
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Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19
June 2024
We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic...
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Global stability for age-infection-structured human immunodeficiency virus model with heterogeneous transmission
June 2024
In this paper, we analyze the global asymptotic behaviors of a mathematical susceptible-infected(SI) age-infection-structured human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) model with heterogeneous transmission....
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Within-host models unravelling the dynamics of dengue reinfections
June 2024
Caused by four serotypes, dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide. Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections, assuming that lifelong...
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A novel approach to model the role of mobility suppression and vaccinations in containing epidemics in a network of cities
June 2024
This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities. Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values. The...
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Valuation and comparison of the actual and optimal control strategy in an emerging infectious disease: Implication from a COVID-19 transmission model
June 2024
To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic. In this paper,...
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Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of COVID-19 cases in Johor
June 2024
At the end of the year 2019, a virus named SARS-CoV-2 induced the coronavirus disease, which is very contagious and quickly spread around the world. This new infectious disease is called COVID-19. Numerous...
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SubEpiPredict: A tutorial-based primer and toolbox for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework
June 2024
An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works. This modeling framework...
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The non-stationary and spatially varying associations between hand, foot and mouth disease and multiple environmental factors: A Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model study
June 2024
The transmission and prevalence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) are affected by a variety of natural and socio-economic environmental factors. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the...
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An AI-empowered indoor digital contact tracing system for COVID-19 outbreaks in residential care homes
June 2024
An AI-empowered indoor digital contact-tracing system was developed using a centralized architecture and advanced low-energy Bluetooth technologies for indoor positioning, with careful preservation...
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