Modelling the preventive treatment under media impact on tuberculosis: A comparison in four regions of China
June 2024
Preventive treatment for people with latent Tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has aroused our great interest. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel mathematical model of TB considering preventive...
Share article
Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report
June 2024
In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes...
Share article
Assessing the impact of interventions on the major Omicron BA.2 outbreak in spring 2022 in Shanghai
June 2024
Shanghai experienced a significant surge in Omicron BA.2 infections from March to June 2022. In addition to the standard interventions in place at that time, additional interventions were implemented...
Share article
Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics
June 2024
We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability...
Share article
Modelling the unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil
June 2024
In late March 2020, SARS-CoV-2 arrived in Manaus, Brazil, and rapidly developed into a large-scale epidemic that collapsed the local health system and resulted in extreme death rates. Several key studies...
Share article
Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis
June 2024
Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using...
Share article
Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach
June 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. The primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination...
Share article
Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control
June 2024
This study introduces a novel SI2HR model, where “I2” denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal...
Share article
Optimal decision-making in relieving global high temperature-related disease burden by data-driven simulation
June 2024
The rapid acceleration of global warming has led to an increased burden of high temperature-related diseases (HTDs), highlighting the need for advanced evidence-based management strategies. We have...
Share article
Modeling Measles Transmission in Adults and Children: Implications to Vaccination for Eradication
Available online 4 May 2024
Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...
Share article
A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters
Available online 3 May 2024
We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework...
Share article
Prediction and control of cholera outbreak: study case of Cameroon
Available online 1 May 2024
This paper deals with the problem of the prediction and control of cholera outbreak using real data of Cameroon. We first develop and analyze a deterministic model with seasonality for the cholera,...
Share article
Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations
Available online 28 April 2024
We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection...
Share article
Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023
March 2024
In this paper, with the method of epidemic dynamics, we assess the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 after the policy adjustment of prevention and control measure in December 2022 in Taiyuan City in...
Share article
Dynamics of a two-group model for assessing the impacts of pre-exposure prophylaxis, testing and risk behaviour change on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM population
March 2024
Although much progress has been made in reducing the public health burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), since its emergence in the...
Share article
Transmission matrices used in epidemiologic modelling
March 2024
Mixing matrices are included in infectious disease models to reflect transmission opportunities between population strata. These matrices were originally constructed on the basis of theoretical considerations...
Share article
Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US
March 2024
In recent years, advanced regularization techniques have emerged as a powerful tool aimed at stable estimation of infectious disease parameters that are crucial for future projections, prevention, and...
Share article
The effect of the fear factor on the dynamics of an eco-epidemiological system with standard incidence rate
March 2024
In order to protect endangered prey, ecologists suggest introducing parasites into predators which have achieved the expected goal in practice. Then how to explain the inherent mechanism and validate...
Share article
Spatial analysis of Dengue through the reproduction numbers relating to socioeconomic features: Case studies on two Brazilian urban centers
March 2024
The study of the propagation of infectious diseases in urban centers finds a close connection with their population's social characteristics and behavior. This work performs a spatial analysis of dengue...
Share article
Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics
March 2024
Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors,...
Share article
Counterfactual analysis of the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China
March 2024
China has experienced a COVID-19 wave caused by Omicron XBB variant starting in April 2023. Our aim is to conduct a retrospective analysis exploring the dynamics of the outbreak under counterfactual...
Share article
Exploring a targeted approach for public health capacity restrictions during COVID-19 using a new computational model
March 2024
This work introduces the Queen's University Agent-Based Outbreak Outcome Model (QUABOOM). This tool is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation for modelling epidemics and informing public health policy....
Share article
Assessing the impact of booster vaccination on diphtheria transmission: Mathematical modeling and risk zone mapping
March 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions in the healthcare system, affecting vaccinations and the management of diphtheria cases. As a consequence of these disruptions, numerous countries...
Share article
Time series models in prediction of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome cases in Shandong province, China
March 2024
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Predicting the incidence of this disease in advance is crucial for policymakers...
Share article
Increasing age and duration of sex work among female sex workers in South Africa and implications for HIV incidence estimation: Bayesian evidence synthesis and simulation exercise
March 2024
In sub-Saharan Africa, accurate estimates of the HIV epidemic in female sex workers are crucial for effective prevention and care strategies. These estimates are typically derived from mathematical...
Share article
