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Recent Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Articles

Recently published articles from Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.

Tropical cyclone track prediction using a large-area WRF model at the Hong Kong Observatory

Available online 20 March 2020
Kai-Kwong Hon

Tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions of the 10-km resolution AAMC-WRF of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), spanning (20⁰S - 60⁰N, 45⁰E - 160⁰E) is studied for a 1-year period from April 2018 to Mar...

Third Assessment on Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part I: Observed Changes, Detection and Attribution

Available online 20 March 2020
Tsz-Cheung Lee | Thomas R. Knutson | Toshiyuki Nakaegawa | Ming Ying | Eun Jeong Cha

Published findings on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region are assessed. We focus on observed TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin,...

Towards an objective historical tropical cyclone dataset for the Australian region

Available online 20 March 2020
Joseph B. Courtney | Andrew Burton | Christopher S. Velden | Timothy L. Olander | Elizabeth A. Ritchie | Clair Stark | Leon Majewski

The appropriate design of infrastructure in tropical cyclone (TC) prone regions requires an understanding of the hazard risk profile underpinned by an accurate, homogenous long-term TC dataset. The...

Improvement of wind field forecasts for tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Available online 20 March 2020
S.D. Kotal | S.K. Bhattacharya

This paper demonstrates a modification method for real-time improvement of wind field forecasts for a typical cyclone VARDAH, which formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in 2016. The proposed method to...

Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change Part 2: forecasts by operational agencies

December 2019
Joseph B. Courtney | Sébastien Langlade | Stephen Barlow | Thomas Birchard | John A. Knaff | S.D. Kotal | Tarik Kriat | Woojeong Lee | Richard Pasch | Charles R. Sampson | Udai Shimada | Amit Singh

This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018....

Tropical cyclones and climate change

December 2019
K.J.E. Walsh | S.J. Camargo | T.R. Knutson | J. Kossin | T.-C. Lee | H. Murakami | C. Patricola

Since the Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8), held in December 2014, progress has been made in our understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics,...

Review of Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting and Expression of Uncertainties

December 2019
Julian T. Heming | Fernando Prates | Morris A. Bender | Rebecca Bowyer | John Cangialosi | Phillippe Caroff | Thomas Coleman | James D. Doyle | Anumeha Dube | Ghislain Faure | Jim Fraser | Brian C. Howell | Yohko Igarashi | Ron McTaggart-Cowan | M. Mohapatra | Jonathan R. Moskaitis | Jim Murtha | Rabi Rivett | M. Sharma | Chris J. Short | Amit A. Singh | Vijay Tallapragada | Helen A. Titley | Yi Xiao

The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) took place in Hawaii, USA in December 2018. This review paper was presented at the Workshop under the Tropical Cyclone Track topic. The...

A summary of research advances on tropical cyclone intensity change from 2014-2018

December 2019
Eric A. Hendricks | Scott A. Braun | Jonathan L. Vigh | Joseph B. Courtney

This contribution summarizes key research advances on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change from 2014-2018 from the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9). Research advances on...

Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

September 2019
Philip Klotzbach | Eric Blake | Joanne Camp | Louis-Philippe Caron | Johnny C.L. Chan | Nam-Young Kang | Yuri Kuleshov | Sai-Ming Lee | Hiroyuki Murakami | Mark Saunders | Yuhei Takaya | Frederic Vitart | Ruifen Zhan

This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging...

Operational Perspectives on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Part 1: recent advances in intensity guidance

September 2019
Joseph B. Courtney | Sébastien Langlade | Charles R. Sampson | John A. Knaff | Thomas Birchard | Stephen Barlow | S.D. Kotal | Tarik Kriat | Woojeong Lee | Richard Pasch | Udai Shimada

This review summarizes techniques used by operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018....

Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting: results from a global forecaster survey

September 2019
H.A. Titley | M. Yamaguchi | L. Magnusson

In order to understand the current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, a questionnaire on the use of dynamic ensembles was conducted at operational...

Advances in understanding difficult cases of tropical cyclone track forecasts

September 2019
Linus Magnusson | James D. Doyle | William A. Komaromi | Ryan D. Torn | Chi Kit Tang | Johnny.C.L. Chan | Munehiko Yamaguchi | Fuqing Zhang

Although tropical cyclone track forecast errors have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still cases each season with large uncertainties in the forecasts and/or very large track errors....

Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales

September 2019
Suzana J. Camargo | Joanne Camp | Russell L. Elsberry | Paul A. Gregory | Philip J. Klotzbach | Carl J. Schreck | Adam H. Sobel | Michael J. Ventrice | Frédéric Vitart | Zhuo Wang | Matthew C. Wheeler | Munehiko Yamaguchi | Ruifen Zhan

Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability and its prediction. There has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal...

The Interaction Of Hurricane Michael With An Upper Trough Leading To Intensification Right Up To Landfall

June 2019
Jeff Callaghan

Hurricane Michael was intensifying as it made landfall devastating areas of the Florida Panhandle including the small town of Mexico Beach. The structure of the hurricane is examined using radar wind...

A short note on the intensification and extreme rainfall associated with hurricane lane

June 2019
Jeff Callaghan

Hurricanes Lane intensified in the Central Pacific with data from reconnaissance aircraft indicating it reached category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale while moving closer to...

Idealized Simulations of the Inner Core Boundary Layer Structure in a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone. Part I: Kinematic Structure

June 2019
Gabriel J. Williams

The effects of coastal topography and coastal location in the distribution of boundary layer winds in the inner core of mature tropical cyclones are examined using a high-resolution multi-level model....

Overview on the progress of Working Group on Meteorology of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee in the recent 10 years

June 2019
Xiaotu Lei | Clarence Fong | Vicente B. Malano | Che Gayah Ismail

This paper reviews the major achievements of the Working Group on Meteorology (WGM) of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since its establishment in 2004, especially in tropical cyclone observational research...

Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Modulating Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal

June 2019
Shyama Mohanty | Raghu Nadimpalli | Krishna K. Osuri | Sujata Pattanayak | U.C. Mohanty | Sourav Sil

Sea surface temperature (SST) varies significantly in the presence of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using fixed SST throughout the integration of high resolution TC models is general practice in research...

Forecast and Service Performance on Rapidly Intensification Process of Typhoons Rammasun (2014) and Hato (2017)

March 2019
Qian Wang | Yinglong Xu | Na Wei | Shuai Wang | Hao Hu

Super typhoons Rammasun (No.1409) and Hato (No.1713) both underwent rapidly intensification (RI) in the northern part of South China Sea before they made landfall. Forecast skills and service performance...

Quasi steady-state hurricanes revisited

March 2019
John Persing | Michael T. Montgomery | Roger K. Smith | James C. McWilliams

We revisit the theoretical possibility of long-term, sustained tropical cyclone solutions using a state-of-the-art numerical model that incorporates the most recent observational guidance for subgrid...

Scenario-based urban flood forecast with flood inundation map

March 2019
Jinhoon Kim | Hyoseob Cho

The objective of this study is to introduce how to apply the urban flood forecast with numerous flood inundation map scenario in Korea. In modeling of urban flood, drainage networks 1D model like SWMM...

Framework of extreme flood risk management in the typhoon country region

March 2019
Cho-Rong Kim

Recently, flood damages have increased worldwide due to global warming and climate change. According to the Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme weather events such...

Warnings on Tropical Cyclone for WMO Global Multi-Hazard Alert System

December 2018
Tong Yu-fai | Yuen-chung Armstrong Cheng

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is planning to implement a Global Multi-hazard Alert System (GMAS) to aggregate official warning11In this paper, “warning” means official alerts, warnings...

Analysis of the Cyclonic Vortex and Evaluation of the Performance of the Radar Integrated Nowcasting System (RaINS) During the Heavy Rainfall Episode which caused Flooding in Penang, Malaysia on 5 November 2017

December 2018
Diong Jeong Yik | Yip Weng Sang | Nursalleh K. Chang | Fadila Jasmin Fakaruddin | Ambun Dindang | Muhammad Helmi Abdullah

Even though Malaysia is relatively safe from the direct path of tropical cyclones nevertheless the passage of such systems over the neighbouring seas and their tail effect present a unique challenge...

Study on Typhoon Disaster Loss and Risk Prediction and Benefit Assessment of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

December 2018
Lin Yang | Chunrong Cao | Dehui Wu | Honghua Qiu | Minghui Lu | Ling Liu

Based on the meteorological monitoring data of Typhoon Nesat and Haitang in Fujian Province in 2017, the data of the typhoon disaster situation and third-party evaluation of typhoon disaster prevention...

Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity and Structure to Two Types of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Idealized HWRF Simulations

December 2018
Jie Tang | Jun A. Zhang | Chanh Kieu | Frank D. Marks

This paper investigates the sensitivity of simulated hurricane intensity and structure to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model including 1)...

Study of Air-Sea Interaction Under Typhoon and its Application in STI

December 2018
Li Yongping | Yunxia Zheng | RunLing Yu | Ziqiang Duan

To improve the forecast of typhoon intensity and meet the requirements of operational services on marine meteorology in Shanghai Meteorological Service of CMA, a few of important scientific research...

Current Technology for Alerting and Warning Tropical Cyclones in Thailand

September 2018
Patchara Petvirojchai | SuraPong SaraPa

The main objective of this paper is to present the current status of the improvement technology for tropical cyclones alerting and warning in Thailand. In 2017, Thai Meteorological Department upgraded...

Applications of Numerical Modelling for the Study on Storm Surge in Typhoon Xangsane in the Central Coast of Vietnam

September 2018
Tho Dat Tran | Duc Truong Dinh | Quang Tri Doan | Quang Tien Tran

Understanding impacts of typhoons due to storm surge plays an important role in reducing damage in coastal areas. This study used the SWAN wave model to simulate the typhoon waves and the SuWAT model...

A Short Note on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

September 2018
Jeff Callaghan

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma had a huge impact on the Southern United States and in the case of Irma, also parts of the Caribbean Islands. Here we focus on the impact of both hurricanes following a period...

An Introduction of Advanced Technology for Tropical Cyclone Observation, Analysis and Forecast in JMA

September 2018
Yoshiaki Takeuchi

Impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings are the key approach to reduce disasters caused by tropical cyclones (TCs). This review paper highlights Japan Meteorological Agency’s and RSMC Tokyo –...

Tropical Cyclone Amos (2016) Forecasting Challenges: A Model’s Perspective

September 2018
Tracey Dorian | Bill Ward | Yi-Leng Chen

The tropical cyclone (TC) named Amos (2016) that impacted the Samoan Islands on 23 April 2016 was a particularly difficult storm to forecast. Both the intensity changes and the track of Amos represent...

Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

May 2018
Kevin Cheung | Zifeng Yu | Russell L. Elsberry | Michael Bell | Haiyan Jiang | Tsz Cheung Lee | Kuo-Chen Lu | Yoshinori Oikawa | Liangbo Qi | Robert F. Rogers | Kazuhisa Tsuboki

In preparation for the Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-IV), a summary of recent research studies and the forecasting challenges of tropical cyclone (TC)...

The World Meteorological Organization Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-IV): A Summary

May 2018
Robert F. Rogers | Kevin Cheung | Russell L. Elsberry | Nadao Kohno | Marie-Dominique Leroux | Peter Otto

The Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) was held in Macao, China from 5-7 December 2017. The workshop was organized by the World Meteorological Organization...

Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure at Landfall

May 2018
Marie-Dominique Leroux | Kimberly Wood | Russell L. Elsberry | Esperanza O. Cayanan | Eric Hendricks | Matthew Kucas | Peter Otto | Robert Rogers | Buck Sampson | Zifeng Yu

This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent (2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of...

Mind The Gap: Towards and Beyond Impact Messaging to Enhance Tropical Cyclone Risk Communication

May 2018
Peter Otto | Amisha Mehta | Brooke Liu

Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning...

Recent Progress in Storm Surge Forecasting

May 2018
Nadao Kohno | Shishir K. Dube | Mikhail Entel | S.H.M. Fakhruddin | Diana Greenslade | Marie-Dominique Leroux | Jamie Rhome | Nguyen Ba Thuy

This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts, one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process (IWTCLP 4) held during...

Progress in Hong Kong’s Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Services in Recent Decades

February 2018
Wai-Kin Wong | Chun-Wing Choy

With modern infrastructures and effective warning systems, casualties, damages and losses due to tropical cyclones (TCs) have been significantly reduced over the years in Hong Kong. Nevertheless, densely...

Review and Prospects of Hydrological Component Development of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee

February 2018
Jinping Liu | Yoshio Tokunaga | Hyoseob Cho | Jinxing Wang

Hydrological Component has been one of three essential parts of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. The Working Group on Hydrology (WGH) established at TC 33rd Session in 2000 is the first working group among...

Experiments on Impact-Based Forecasting and Risk-Based Warning of Typhoon in China

February 2018
Li Wei | Jiaying Li | Xuan Yang

Typhoon is one of the disastrous weather systems that usually occur in summer and autumn in China’s coastal regions. Gales and rainstorms brought by typhoon can directly cause serious loss in economy...

Advancing the State of the Art in Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting at Ncep

February 2018
Avichal Mehra | Vijay Tallapragada | Zhan Zhang | Bin Liu | Lin Zhu | Weiguo Wang | Hyun-Sook Kim

Regional Hurricane modeling systems developed and implemented into operations at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National...

Review of ESACP/WMO Typhoon Committee Development in Past 50 Years

February 2018
Jixin Yu | Jinping Liu

The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) is an intergovernmental regional organization, established by Governments of ESCAP Member Countries (or Member Territory) under the joint auspices of ESCAP and WMO...

Brief History and Recent Activities of RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Centre

February 2018
Chiashi Muroi

The RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Centre was designated by the WMO and established in 1989. The Centre provides tropical cyclone information via GTS, Typhoon Centre Website, and/or other means. The Centre also...

Training and Research Under the Typhoon Committee

February 2018
Tsz-Cheung Lee | Edwin S.T. Lai

The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Training and Research Coordination Group (TRCG), formerly known as the Typhoon Research Coordination Group, has served Members of the Typhoon Committee for more than...

A Diagnostic from Vertical Wind Profiles for Detecting Extreme Rainfall

September–December 2017
Jeff Callaghan

The damage and loss of life from fresh water flooding as Tropical Cyclones move inland and towards higher latitudes rivals the losses at the point of landfall. This makes it extremely important to understand...

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