Risk theory: From perception to cognition
2025
This paper proposes a generic risk theory. The risk theory starts with a basic observation that risk is the product of a specific human cognitive process. This cognitive process is responsible for the...
Artificial intelligence and uncertainty
2025
Artificial intelligence (AI) has both capabilities and limitations in managing uncertainty, particularly in handling average cases versus extreme outliers. AI excels at analyzing large datasets and...
From risk to resilience and sustainability: Addressing urban flash floods and waterlogging
2025
Urban flash floods, which occur rapidly in densely populated areas, pose significant risks to infrastructure, public safety, and sustainable development. These events, along with the resulting waterlogging,...
Firm-level climate risk assessment: Recent progress and future research agenda
2025
As climate change intensifies, firms face increasing exposure to multidimensional risks. This discussion presents a comprehensive review of firm-level climate risk assessment, categorizing risks into...
Interpretability in deep learning for finance: A case study for the Heston model
2026
Deep learning is a powerful tool whose applications in quantitative finance are growing every day. Yet, artificial neural networks behave as black boxes, and this introduces risks, hindering validation...
Reinforcing small- and medium-sized enterprises’ resilience to future disruptions: A novel decision-making framework for supply chain risk quantification
2026
This study evaluates the overall risk exposure of manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises’ supply chains (SMESC) during plausible disruption scenarios, particularly in emerging economies where...
Cyber risk loss distribution for various scale drone delivery systems
2025
Thousands of commercial drone deliveries are occurring daily worldwide, mainly in the U.S. and China. Global corporate efforts such as the recent Amazon trials at College Station, TX, authorized by...
Backtesting expectile: Disentangling unconditional coverage and independence properties
2026
Under current regulations, financial institutions are required to estimate the daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Expected Shortfall (ES) of their trading positions. Despite being widely studied and adopted,...
Simplified vine copula models: State of science and affairs
2025
Vine copula models have become highly popular practical tools for modeling multivariate dependencies. To maintain tractability, a commonly employed simplifying assumption is that conditional copulas...
What are risk sciences?
2025
This article articulates a conceptual framework for risk sciences—an emerging interdisciplinary field dedicated to the study of risk and uncertainty across natural, social, economic, management, technological...
Data-enriched prediction of insurance risk
2026
In this study, we examine the impact of big data and corresponding prediction techniques on insurance risk assessment. We demonstrate that both big data and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection...
Optimism bias and its impact on cyber risk management decisions
2025
This study explores how optimism bias influences decision-making in cyber risk management by developing a novel model that reflects utility loss aversion, a factor previously unexplored in this context....
Climate change, land-use dynamics and livelihood transitions in Tiaty, Kenya: A long-term localized assessment of pastoral and agro-pastoral adaptation
2026
The arid and semiarid pastoral and agropastoral systems across sub-Saharan Africa face increasing pressure from climate change, land degradation, and changing land use, endangering food security, livestock...
Seismic risk management in China: A bibliometric analysis
2026
China is particularly prone to severe earthquake disasters. The Chinese government pays great attention to the monitoring and forecasting of earthquakes, the seismic fortification of engineering structures,...
A news monitoring system to detect relevant news for the anti-money laundering supervision of financial institutions
2025
Investigative journalism plays a pivotal role in uncovering financial misconduct, yet its integration into anti-money laundering (AML) supervision remains underexplored. This paper presents a data-driven...
Reducing adverse selection by taking advantage of ML: Evidence from China’s internet auto insurance
2025
Compared to traditional auto insurance, the price of internet auto insurance is usually lower, although traditional auto insurance and internet auto insurance can provide the same coverage. After confirming...
Construction of the emotional vulnerability factor based on network and large language models
2026
With the evolution of empirical asset pricing theory and the increasing complexity of markets, the exploration of innovation - driven alternative factors has attracted growing attention. This study...
Axiomatic characterizations of certain simple risk-sharing rules
2026
In this paper, we present axiomatic characterizations of certain simple risk-sharing (RS) rules, such as uniform, mean-proportional and covariance-based linear RS rules. These characterizations facilitate...
How do insurance companies manage reserves? Evidence from reserve errors across lines of business and accident years
2025
We study the question of how insurance companies manage reserves. Specifically, we investigate how managerial incentives affect insurers’ reserving practice across lines of business (LOBs) and accident...
Fundamentals of non-parametric statistical inference for integrated quantiles
2026
We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied...
Balancing security and inconvenience: Perceptions of countermeasures in U.S. commercial facilities
2025
This study focuses on patrons' perceptions of countermeasures at public assembly and retail venues within the commercial facilities sector of critical infrastructure and the implications of these perceptions...
Risk science or risk sciences: A perspective on the foundation of the science(s) of risk
2026
This paper discusses the foundation of the science(s) of risk. A key issue addressed is the question of whether there is a science of risk—or several sciences. The recent launch of a journal titled...
Strategic timing of corporate social responsibility investments under reputational risk
2025
We analyze a company’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) investments from a real option perspective to determine the value of the CSR investments and the optimal time to invest in CSR, taking into...
Infinite-mean models in risk management: Discussions and recent advances
2025
In statistical analysis, many classic results require the assumption that models have finite mean or variance, including the most standard versions of the laws of large numbers and the central limit...
Resource allocation in multi-layer, continuous defense, security games versus strategic attackers
2025
When defending soft targets, such as airports, subway stations, sports venues and houses of worship, it is critical to optimally allocate defensive resources across the different security layers of...
