Fundamentals of non-parametric statistical inference for integrated quantiles
2026
We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied...
Axiomatic characterizations of certain simple risk-sharing rules
2026
In this paper, we present axiomatic characterizations of certain simple risk-sharing (RS) rules, such as uniform, mean-proportional and covariance-based linear RS rules. These characterizations facilitate...
Data-enriched prediction of insurance risk
2026
In this study, we examine the impact of big data and corresponding prediction techniques on insurance risk assessment. We demonstrate that both big data and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection...
Interpretability in deep learning for finance: A case study for the Heston model
2026
Deep learning is a powerful tool whose applications in quantitative finance are growing every day. Yet, artificial neural networks behave as black boxes, and this introduces risks, hindering validation...
Construction of the emotional vulnerability factor based on network and large language models
2026
With the evolution of empirical asset pricing theory and the increasing complexity of markets, the exploration of innovation - driven alternative factors has attracted growing attention. This study...
Extending Rao's damage model through convolution identities and Abel-Gontcharoff pseudopolynomials
2026
This article focuses on Rao’s damage model and a possible Markovian version of this model. The novelty of the formulation lies in the fact that the conditional survival distributions are defined from...
Backtesting expectile: Disentangling unconditional coverage and independence properties
2026
Under current regulations, financial institutions are required to estimate the daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Expected Shortfall (ES) of their trading positions. Despite being widely studied and adopted,...
Reinforcing small- and medium-sized enterprises’ resilience to future disruptions: A novel decision-making framework for supply chain risk quantification
2026
This study evaluates the overall risk exposure of manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises’ supply chains (SMESC) during plausible disruption scenarios, particularly in emerging economies where...
Seismic risk management in China: A bibliometric analysis
2026
China is particularly prone to severe earthquake disasters. The Chinese government pays great attention to the monitoring and forecasting of earthquakes, the seismic fortification of engineering structures,...
Climate change, land-use dynamics and livelihood transitions in Tiaty, Kenya: A long-term localized assessment of pastoral and agro-pastoral adaptation
2026
The arid and semiarid pastoral and agropastoral systems across sub-Saharan Africa face increasing pressure from climate change, land degradation, and changing land use, endangering food security, livestock...
Risk, uncertainty and nonlinear central limit theorems
2026
The econometric theory and methods of financial risk are critical technical issues that consistently concern both the economic and mathematical communities. Traditional risk measurement theories and...
Risk science or risk sciences: A perspective on the foundation of the science(s) of risk
2026
This paper discusses the foundation of the science(s) of risk. A key issue addressed is the question of whether there is a science of risk—or several sciences. The recent launch of a journal titled...
Investing amid uncertainty: Perspectives from America’s investment biker – Jim Rogers
2026
In an interview, renowned global investor Jim Rogers shares his philosophy of contrarian thinking, risk management, and life lessons from decades of investing. He stresses that true success requires...
Interbank network and market efficiency
2026
The mechanism and optimal size of network formation remain challenging. We consider a simple interbank network and show that the network formation is characterized by banks’ trade-offs between profitability...
Six major risks in modern society: Research progress and future directions
2026
Modern societies are confronted with an unprecedented spectrum of complex risks, spanning geopolitical tensions, global meteorological disasters, environmental degradation, supply chain disruptions,...
From disease progression to healthcare demand: A temporal model for epidemic cost and insurance projection
2026
Health insurers must hold adequate reserves to cover healthcare costs during epidemics; however, traditional reserving methodologies, which are typically grounded in historical averages, are ill-suited...
“Promotion” as a policy instrument: The social roots and implications of Japan's light-touch AI governance
2026
Japan's first comprehensive AI legislation places "promotion" at its centre. The orientation itself is not unique, since the United Kingdom and Singapore have adopted comparable postures. What distinguishes...
Climate disinformation, belief distortions, and the timing of carbon taxes: A policy analysis
2026
Climate policy is often analysed under the assumption that agents hold correct beliefs about climate damages. In practice, however, climate disinformation can distort those beliefs and weaken support...
Artificial intelligence for climate change adaptation and mitigation across the construction project lifecycle
2026
Artificial intelligence (AI) has disrupted industries worldwide and is now revolutionising the construction industry (CI). It can advance the built environment (BE), particularly by addressing climate...
Vulnerability-conditional systemic risk measures: Evidence from cryptocurrency markets
2026
Financial distress in one part of a market can be associated with severe losses elsewhere, making it important to understand which assets are most vulnerable when others are under stress. This paper...
Managing AI Risk in Higher Education: Compliance versus Design
Available online 2 October 2026
Artificial intelligence (AI) is deploying across higher education, yet current governance approaches rely on compliance-based frameworks that treat AI challenges as calculable risks rather than unpredictable...
Promethean Fire, or Pandora's Box? The Dynamics of Innovation-driven Sustainability Risks
Available online 1 October 2026
Schumpeter perceived innovation as the ultimate engine of economic development (Schumpeter, 1934). Yet the adverse effects of many innovations are increasingly alarming and destructive. This paper proposes...
Governing Accountability in AI-Enabled Education: A Formal and Empirical Study of Ethical Risk Management
Available online 22 September 2026
The growing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in education has intensified concerns regarding accountability, ethical governance, and institutional responsibility when AI-enabled systems cause...
Optimism bias and its impact on cyber risk management decisions
2025
This study explores how optimism bias influences decision-making in cyber risk management by developing a novel model that reflects utility loss aversion, a factor previously unexplored in this context....