Artificial intelligence and uncertainty
2025
Artificial intelligence (AI) has both capabilities and limitations in managing uncertainty, particularly in handling average cases versus extreme outliers. AI excels at analyzing large datasets and...
From risk to resilience and sustainability: Addressing urban flash floods and waterlogging
2025
Urban flash floods, which occur rapidly in densely populated areas, pose significant risks to infrastructure, public safety, and sustainable development. These events, along with the resulting waterlogging,...
Risk theory: From perception to cognition
2025
This paper proposes a generic risk theory. The risk theory starts with a basic observation that risk is the product of a specific human cognitive process. This cognitive process is responsible for the...
Firm-level climate risk assessment: Recent progress and future research agenda
2025
As climate change intensifies, firms face increasing exposure to multidimensional risks. This discussion presents a comprehensive review of firm-level climate risk assessment, categorizing risks into...
China’s economic and financial risks and the prospect of reforms: An interview with David Daokui Li
2025
In this interview, David Daokui Li, a prominent economist and professor at Tsinghua University, discusses the critical economic and financial risks facing China and proposes reforms to address them....
How do insurance companies manage reserves? Evidence from reserve errors across lines of business and accident years
2025
We study the question of how insurance companies manage reserves. Specifically, we investigate how managerial incentives affect insurers’ reserving practice across lines of business (LOBs) and accident...
Simplified vine copula models: State of science and affairs
2025
Vine copula models have become highly popular practical tools for modeling multivariate dependencies. To maintain tractability, a commonly employed simplifying assumption is that conditional copulas...
Cyber risk loss distribution for various scale drone delivery systems
2025
Thousands of commercial drone deliveries are occurring daily worldwide, mainly in the U.S. and China. Global corporate efforts such as the recent Amazon trials at College Station, TX, authorized by...
A news monitoring system to detect relevant news for the anti-money laundering supervision of financial institutions
2025
Investigative journalism plays a pivotal role in uncovering financial misconduct, yet its integration into anti-money laundering (AML) supervision remains underexplored. This paper presents a data-driven...
Optimism bias and its impact on cyber risk management decisions
2025
This study explores how optimism bias influences decision-making in cyber risk management by developing a novel model that reflects utility loss aversion, a factor previously unexplored in this context....
Keeping risk alive
2025
Risk premia in markets rise with the degree of discontinuity in price motion. This discontinuity is measured by the scale and speed coefficients of price movements embedded in the bilateral gamma process,...
Strategic timing of corporate social responsibility investments under reputational risk
2025
We analyze a company’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) investments from a real option perspective to determine the value of the CSR investments and the optimal time to invest in CSR, taking into...
Infinite-mean models in risk management: Discussions and recent advances
2025
In statistical analysis, many classic results require the assumption that models have finite mean or variance, including the most standard versions of the laws of large numbers and the central limit...
Reducing adverse selection by taking advantage of ML: Evidence from China’s internet auto insurance
2025
Compared to traditional auto insurance, the price of internet auto insurance is usually lower, although traditional auto insurance and internet auto insurance can provide the same coverage. After confirming...
High price impact trade identification and its implication for volatility and price efficiency
2025
We include limit order book (LOB) matchedness as a new trade attribute to identify high price impact trades (HPITs). HPITs are trades associated with large price changes relative to their volume proportion....
Fundamentals of non-parametric statistical inference for integrated quantiles
2026
We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied...
Data-driven decision making for social influence risk management
2025
Social influence risk management tasks, such as misinformation prevention and source detection, have gained increasing attention due to the rapid development of social networks, which play an important...
Multiple climate ambiguities and optimal carbon emission abatement decisions
2025
This paper develops a climate-economy model to study how ambiguity about key climate and economic factors affects carbon abatement decisions. We focus on three sources of ambiguity: climate sensitivity...
A versatility measure for parametric risk models
2025
Parametric statistical methods play a central role in analyzing risk through its underlying frequency and severity components. Given the wide availability of numerical algorithms and high-speed computers,...
Axiomatic characterizations of certain simple risk-sharing rules
2026
In this paper, we present axiomatic characterizations of certain simple risk-sharing (RS) rules, such as uniform, mean-proportional and covariance-based linear RS rules. These characterizations facilitate...
Resource allocation in multi-layer, continuous defense, security games versus strategic attackers
2025
When defending soft targets, such as airports, subway stations, sports venues and houses of worship, it is critical to optimally allocate defensive resources across the different security layers of...
Taming AI with morals? Skeptical notes
2025
If the risks that leading experts say are intrinsic to advanced AI systems are real, then there is little reason to expect that they can be contained, be it by political or ethical means. The reasons...
Balancing security and inconvenience: Perceptions of countermeasures in U.S. commercial facilities
2025
This study focuses on patrons' perceptions of countermeasures at public assembly and retail venues within the commercial facilities sector of critical infrastructure and the implications of these perceptions...
Interpretability in deep learning for finance: A case study for the Heston model
2026
Deep learning is a powerful tool whose applications in quantitative finance are growing every day. Yet, artificial neural networks behave as black boxes, and this introduces risks, hindering validation...
Equal compensations under actuarially fair contributions in endowment contingency funds
2025
This paper considers risk-sharing schemes, aiming to demonstrate that it is possible to enforce equal compensations by charging actuarially fair contributions. Specifically, consider a group of individuals...
