From Addressing Uncertainty to National Strategy: An Interpretation of Professor Lim Siong Guan’s Views

 As global uncertainty intensifies, governments around the world are grappling with how to make decisions that safeguard long-term stability while remaining adaptable to sudden change. In a newly published interview in the journal Risk Sciences, Lim Siong Guan—one of Singapore’s most experienced public-sector leaders—offers a rare, first-hand perspective on how uncertainty can be managed through governance, leadership, and culture.

Lim emphasizes that effective governance is not about eliminating risk, but about anticipating the future and building resilience. “In government, we rarely use the word risk,” he explains. “A more accurate description is managing uncertainty with a future orientation.” Rather than reacting to crises as they arise, he argues that governments must continuously prepare for multiple possible futures.

A key example is Singapore's long-standing use of scenario planning, a structured process that explores different future pathways without assigning probabilities. According to Lim, this approach helps public institutions develop strategies that remain robust even when conditions change. Complementing this is horizon scanning, which focuses on identifying early signals of emerging threats or opportunities so responses can be prepared in advance.

Beyond formal planning tools, Lim stresses the central role of organizational culture in coping with what he calls the “unknown unknowns”—events that cannot be predicted in advance. “My thesis about the way to deal with the unknown unknowns is in culture,” he says, highlighting the importance of shared values, adaptability, and a willingness to learn from mistakes.

Lim also reflects on leadership in uncertain environments, using three metaphors—the dragon boat race, the symphony orchestra, and the soccer game—to illustrate how leadership must evolve as environments become more complex and unpredictable. In today's world, he argues, leaders cannot dictate every action; instead, they must build capable teams that can make sound judgments in real time.

Trust, Lim notes, is another cornerstone of effective governance. Drawing on experiences during crises such as COVID-19, he explains that public trust—rooted in perceptions of care, competence, and credibility—enables governments to adjust policies as new information emerges.

Together, these insights shed light on how long-term strategy, leadership development, and institutional culture can help states navigate uncertainty in a rapidly changing world.

Contact author:

Prof. Lim Siong Guan

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Runhuan Feng

School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, China

Email: fengrh@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn

Conflict of interest:

The authors declare no competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have influenced the work reported in this article.

See the article:

Chen, Y., Feng, R., Guan, L.S., et al. (2026). From managing uncertainty to national strategy: An interview with Lim Siong Guan. Risk Sciences, 2, 100047.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.risk.2025.100047