A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors
March 2026
Dengue fever is a major global health concern, with Brazil experiencing recurrent and severe outbreaks due to its favorable climate factors, socio-environmental conditions, and increasing human mobility....
Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables
March 2025
Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early...
Resurgence of large-scale influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks: Modeling the interplay of transmission, loss of immunity, and vaccination
March 2027
Influenza is a highly transmissible respiratory virus that can cause devastating pandemics. The 2009 influenza pandemic, caused by a strain of A(H1N1) virus, resulted in millions of cases and hundreds...
Efficacy versus coverage: population-level impacts of vaccination schemes
March 2027
The effectiveness of vaccination campaigns depends on vaccine efficacy, vaccination coverage, and vaccine allocation. A fundamental yet often overlooked question is whether higher vaccine efficacy or...
Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
Stochastic threshold dynamics of an HIV model with latent cell activation under mean-reverting environmental noise
March 2027
Motivated by the impact of environmental variability on within-host HIV dynamics, we develop a stochastic HIV model incorporating latent cell activation. Infection and activation rates are modeled as...
Dengue fever prediction based on meteorological features and deep learning models
June 2026
The dengue fever epidemic is one of the health priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), and accurately predicting its epidemiological trends is crucial. Multi source geographic data such as...
A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
August 2017
Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...
Optimal timing for staged vaccination campaigns: Insights from scenario tree-based stochastic optimization
March 2027
We develop a mathematical modeling framework to address the challenge in launching an effective staged vaccination campaign during a typical viral infection season to avoid an overwhelmed healthcare...
Stage-aware deep learning with adversarial data synthesis enables prospective season-scale A/H1N1 influenza forecasting in China
March 2027
Accurate influenza forecasting is essential for public health preparedness, yet many models require future covariates, provide limited interpretability, and degrade under post-pandemic regime shifts....
Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
Symptom-based diagnostic models for common respiratory viral infections: a machine learning and natural language processing study
December 2026
This study aimed to develop an efficient and cost-saving diagnostic approach using natural language processing and explainable machine learning models....
Quantitative risk assessment of avian influenza: A scoping review
December 2026
Avian influenza virus (AIV) continues to pose serious risks to animal and public health. Understanding its spread requires integrating ecological, agricultural, and human information. Quantitative models...
Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions — United States, 2022–2025
September 2026
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates influenza forecasting efforts with approximately 30 academic and industry teams and combines their short-term, weekly forecasts...
From giant components to communities: community-level insights for prioritizing interventions within large clusters of HIV-1 transmission networks
March 2027
Large clusters in HIV-1 molecular networks contain a substantial proportion of people living with HIV and dominate local epidemics; however, their large size and complex structure pose a challenge for...
Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
Spatio-temporal forecasting of dengue in the Americas through hybrid mechanistic and data-driven models: Systematic review and meta-analysis
June 2026
This systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD420251130769) synthesises 30 dengue modelling studies conducted in the Americas between 2016 and 2025, evaluating the integration of mechanistic...