Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
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Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan
September 2024
Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...
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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models
2021
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...
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Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical model
September 2024
Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the virus. While individuals...
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
2020
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...
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Parameter identifiability of a within-host SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model
September 2024
Parameter identification involves the estimation of undisclosed parameters within a system based on observed data and mathematical models. In this investigation, we employ DAISY to meticulously examine...
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Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2
September 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, disproportionately affected certain segments of society, particularly the elderly population (which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms...
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Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy
September 2024
In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most...
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Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
August 2017
Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...
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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models
September 2024
During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...
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Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report
June 2024
In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes...
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Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks
September 2024
The basic reproduction number, R0, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R0 from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation...
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Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study
December 2024
The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...
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Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication
December 2024
Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...
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Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread
2021
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...
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Integrating immunoinformatics and computational epitope prediction for a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus
September 2024
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine...
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A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico
September 2024
Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border...
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