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ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....

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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...

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Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....

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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

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A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health...

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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...

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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread

The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...

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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....

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Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and...

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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models

The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...

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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...

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Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19: A next generation matrix approach

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial. Masks are thought to have two modes of effect: they prevent infection with COVID-19...

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Monitoring the impact of Movement Control Order (MCO) in flattening the cummulative daily cases curve of Covid-19 in Malaysia: A generalized logistic growth modeling approach

COVID-19 has affected almost every country in the world, which causing many negative implications in terms of education, economy and mental health. Worryingly, the trend of second or third wave of the...

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A simple model for COVID-19

An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically...

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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...

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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...

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Economic evaluations of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in six Western Pacific and South East Asian countries and regions: A modeling study

The present study aimed to document the economic profiles of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the evidence on which is...

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Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on SEIRD with ARIMA corrections

The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) attracted worldwide attention. It has posed a significant challenge for the global economies, especially the healthcare sector. Even with a robust healthcare...

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Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA) and the UK. Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus...

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COVID-19 prevalence estimation: Four most affected African countries

The world at large has been confronted with several disease outbreak which has posed and still posing a serious menace to public health globally. Recently, COVID-19 a new kind of coronavirus emerge...

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Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...

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Predictive modelling of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria

The coronavirus outbreak is the most notable world crisis since the Second World War. The pandemic that originated from Wuhan, China in late 2019 has affected all the nations of the world and triggered...

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Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination programs during vaccine shortages

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine shortages occur due to various types of constraints, including interruptions in production/supply, higher-than-expected demands, and a lack of resources...

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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...

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On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques

Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019 (COVID-19), numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict...

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