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ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study

The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...

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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....

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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states

Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...

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Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand

Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to...

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Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study

The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate...

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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...

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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...

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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...

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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models

The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...

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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...

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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....

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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread

The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...

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Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction

In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...

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Modelling epidemic growth models for lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand using nationwide outbreak data, 2021–2022

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary disease affecting cattle and has a detrimental effect on the cattle industries in numerous countries in Africa, Europe and Asia. In 2021, LSD outbreaks have...

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The efficacy of deep learning based LSTM model in forecasting the outbreak of contagious diseases

The coronavirus disease that outbreak in 2019 has caused various health issues. According to the WHO, the first positive case was detected in Bangladesh on 7th March 2020, but while writing this paper...

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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...

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Dynamics of a two-group model for assessing the impacts of pre-exposure prophylaxis, testing and risk behaviour change on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM population

Although much progress has been made in reducing the public health burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), since its emergence in the...

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Effect of climate factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Malaysia: A generalized additive mixed model

Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents, including malaria, cholera, dengue fever, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and...

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A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health...

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Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts

Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...

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The importance of increasing primary vaccinations against COVID-19 in Europe

In the European Union, mass vaccination against COVID-19 staved off the strict restrictions that had characterized early epidemic response. Now, vaccination campaigns are focusing on booster doses,...

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The practicality of Malaysia dengue outbreak forecasting model as an early warning system

Dengue is a harmful tropical disease that causes death to many people. Currently, the dengue vaccine development is still at an early stage, and only intervention methods exist after dengue cases increase....

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A mathematical model for the dynamics and control of malaria in Nigeria

Malaria is a life-threatening disease endemic in many African countries especially Nigeria. A mathematical model is used to study the dynamics of malaria in Nigeria. The model incorporates drug resistance,...

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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...

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