Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
2020
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...
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To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
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Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19
2020
Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
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Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
March 2022
This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, may lead to a catastrophic...
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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread
2021
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...
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A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations
2021
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health...
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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models
2021
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...
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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs
2021
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...
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Monitoring the impact of Movement Control Order (MCO) in flattening the cummulative daily cases curve of Covid-19 in Malaysia: A generalized logistic growth modeling approach
2021
COVID-19 has affected almost every country in the world, which causing many negative implications in terms of education, economy and mental health. Worryingly, the trend of second or third wave of the...
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Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19: A next generation matrix approach
2020
The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial. Masks are thought to have two modes of effect: they prevent infection with COVID-19...
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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)
2020
The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...
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Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies
June 2022
At the end of 2021, with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant, testing centers in Canada were overwhelmed. To alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity, many provinces...
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A simple model for COVID-19
2020
An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically...
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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
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Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination programs during vaccine shortages
March 2022
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine shortages occur due to various types of constraints, including interruptions in production/supply, higher-than-expected demands, and a lack of resources...
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Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm
March 2022
This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA) and the UK. Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus...
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Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on SEIRD with ARIMA corrections
2021
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) attracted worldwide attention. It has posed a significant challenge for the global economies, especially the healthcare sector. Even with a robust healthcare...
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On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques
2021
Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019 (COVID-19), numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict...
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Economic evaluations of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in six Western Pacific and South East Asian countries and regions: A modeling study
March 2022
The present study aimed to document the economic profiles of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the evidence on which is...
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Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model
2018
In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and...
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Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?
2020
Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...
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Predictive modelling of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria
2020
The coronavirus outbreak is the most notable world crisis since the Second World War. The pandemic that originated from Wuhan, China in late 2019 has affected all the nations of the world and triggered...
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