To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
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Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models
2021
The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...
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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example
2020
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...
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Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs
2021
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...
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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
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Mathematical modeling for Delta and Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Greece
September 2023
A compartmental, epidemiological, mathematical model was developed in order to analyze the transmission dynamics of Delta and Omicron variant, of SARS-CoV-2, in Greece. The model was parameterized twice...
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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread
2021
The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...
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Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
August 2017
Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...
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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)
2020
The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...
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Time delay of the appearance of a new strain can affect vaccination behavior and disease dynamics: An evolutionary explanation
September 2023
The emergence of a novel strain during a pandemic, like the current COVID-19, is a major concern to the healthcare system. The most effective strategy to control this type of pandemic is vaccination....
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An exploration of the relationship between wastewater viral signals and COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ottawa, Canada
September 2023
Monitoring of viral signal in wastewater is considered a useful tool for monitoring the burden of COVID-19, especially during times of limited availability in testing. Studies have shown that COVID-19...
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Feature importance: Opening a soil-transmitted helminth machine learning model via SHAP
March 2022
In the field of landscape epidemiology, the contribution of machine learning (ML) to modeling of epidemiological risk scenarios presents itself as a good alternative. This study aims to break with the...
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EpiMix: A novel method to estimate effective reproduction number
September 2023
Transmission potential of a pathogen, often quantified by the time-varying reproduction number Rt, provides the current pace of infection for a disease and indicates whether an emerging epidemic is...
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A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations
2021
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health...
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On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques
2021
Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019 (COVID-19), numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict...
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The dynamics of the risk perception on a social network and its effect on disease dynamics
September 2023
The perceived infection risk changes individual behaviors, which further affects the disease dynamics. This perception is influenced by social communication, including surveying their social network...
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Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on SEIRD with ARIMA corrections
2021
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) attracted worldwide attention. It has posed a significant challenge for the global economies, especially the healthcare sector. Even with a robust healthcare...
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Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?
2020
Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...
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Law of mass action and saturation in SIR model with application to Coronavirus modelling
2021
When using SIR and related models, it is common to assume that the infection rate is proportional to the product of susceptible and infected individuals. While this assumption works at the onset of...
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