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ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....

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Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated...

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Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number

The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...

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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The epidemic has largely...

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A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health...

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Graph modelling for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic spread

The modelling is widely used in determining the best strategies for the mitigation of the impact of infectious diseases. Currently, the modelling of a complex system such as the spread of COVID-19 infection...

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Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future

We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....

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Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models

This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...

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COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models

The coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly to all corners of the word, in a very complex manner. A key research focus is in predicting the development trend of COVID-19...

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Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small....

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The influence of mobility among high-risk populations on HIV transmission in Western Kenya

Western Kenya suffers a highly endemic and also very heterogeneous epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients are known to be at high risk...

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An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known...

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Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in India and Pakistan: A metapopulation modelling approach

India has been the latest global epicenter for COVID-19, a novel coronavirus disease that emerged in China in late 2019. We present a base mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19...

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A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion

A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...

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A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...

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The practicality of Malaysia dengue outbreak forecasting model as an early warning system

Dengue is a harmful tropical disease that causes death to many people. Currently, the dengue vaccine development is still at an early stage, and only intervention methods exist after dengue cases increase....

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A simple model for COVID-19

An SL1L2I1I2A1A2R epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically...

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A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period

At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop...

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Modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 using a hybrid dynamic model based on SEIRD with ARIMA corrections

The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) attracted worldwide attention. It has posed a significant challenge for the global economies, especially the healthcare sector. Even with a robust healthcare...

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Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19...

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On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques

Since the emergence of the novel 2019 coronavirus pandemic in December 2019 (COVID-19), numerous modellers have used diverse techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict...

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Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have...

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Predictive modelling of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria

The coronavirus outbreak is the most notable world crisis since the Second World War. The pandemic that originated from Wuhan, China in late 2019 has affected all the nations of the world and triggered...

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Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination programs during vaccine shortages

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine shortages occur due to various types of constraints, including interruptions in production/supply, higher-than-expected demands, and a lack of resources...

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A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia

In this study, we determine and compare the incubation duration, serial interval, pre-symptomatic transmission, and case fatality rate of MERS-CoV and COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia based on contact tracing...

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