A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
Dengue fever prediction based on meteorological features and deep learning models
June 2026
The dengue fever epidemic is one of the health priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), and accurately predicting its epidemiological trends is crucial. Multi source geographic data such as...
Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors
March 2026
Dengue fever is a major global health concern, with Brazil experiencing recurrent and severe outbreaks due to its favorable climate factors, socio-environmental conditions, and increasing human mobility....
A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
Quantitative risk assessment of avian influenza: A scoping review
December 2026
Avian influenza virus (AIV) continues to pose serious risks to animal and public health. Understanding its spread requires integrating ecological, agricultural, and human information. Quantitative models...
Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
A novel mathematical modeling and optimal control analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating double-dose vaccination strategies: Insights from the recent outbreak
December 2026
Monkeypox (Mpox) has re-emerged as a serious global public health concern due to its potential human-to-human transmission and persistence in the environment. This study develops a new deterministic...
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables
March 2025
Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early...
Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of HIV/AIDS in Africa: A retrospective analysis of epidemiological trends
December 2026
Africa bears the highest global burden of HIV, with marked regional inequalities in prevalence, incidence and clinical outcomes. Mapping the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic is essential...
Symptom-based diagnostic models for common respiratory viral infections: a machine learning and natural language processing study
December 2026
This study aimed to develop an efficient and cost-saving diagnostic approach using natural language processing and explainable machine learning models....
Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts
August 2017
Mathematical models provide a quantitative framework with which scientists can assess hypotheses on the potential underlying mechanisms that explain patterns in observed data at different spatial and...
To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
Rek-Surv: A lightweight deep survival model for plant infectious disease onset prediction
December 2026
Infectious disease outbreaks in crop systems pose a significant threat to global food security, particularly when early detection and intervention opportunities are missed. Predicting not just whether...
A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future
May 2017
We give a brief outline of some of the important aspects of the development of mathematical epidemiology....
Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
Modeling two-strain competition with reinfection: Mathematical analyses and epidemiological implications
December 2026
We propose a new epidemic model for the interactions between two different strains associated with the same pathogen. Our focus is how the competition between multiple strains and the impact of reinfection...
Resolving parameter uncertainty in SIR models through population-level serological surveillance: A synthetic study
December 2026
Epidemic models face a critical challenge: surveillance systems capture only a fraction of infections (often <10%). We reveal two fundamental problems. First, when models ignore underdetection entirely—treating...
An age-structured mathematical model to assess the combined effects of vaccine and non-vaccine interventions on malaria transmission and burden
March 2026
Malaria remains a significant public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where its burden remains a concern despite existing control measures. Recent advances in vaccination, particularly...
