A primer on model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion
2020
A powerful investigative tool in biology is to consider not a single mathematical model but a collection of models designed to explore different working hypotheses and select the best model in that...
A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Dengue fever prediction based on meteorological features and deep learning models
June 2026
The dengue fever epidemic is one of the health priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), and accurately predicting its epidemiological trends is crucial. Multi source geographic data such as...
Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models
August 2017
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, ℛ0, for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to ℛ0 that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with...
A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis
May 2017
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential...
To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
2020
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood....
How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors
March 2026
Dengue fever is a major global health concern, with Brazil experiencing recurrent and severe outbreaks due to its favorable climate factors, socio-environmental conditions, and increasing human mobility....
Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
Mathematical modeling for analyzing mass drug administration operational factors for efficient malaria incidence reduction in southern Senegal
September 2026
Mass drug administration (MDA) has emerged as a promising strategy for reducing malaria incidence in many African countries. A pilot study of MDA in the Tambacounda health district in southeastern Senegal...
Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables
March 2025
Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early...
Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
2020
The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate...
A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
Mathematical modeling with optimal control analysis of social media addiction
2021
In this paper, we developed a deterministic mathematical model of social media addiction (SMA) with an optimal control strategy. Major qualitative analysis like the social media addiction free equilibrium...
Estimation of the exponential growth rate of an epidemic
September 2026
Accurate estimation of the initial growth rate of an epidemic is critical for assessing transmissibility and guiding early interventions. Standard regression-based methods, such as negative binomial...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations
March 2023
Most of the progress in the development of single scale mathematical and computational models for the study of infectious disease dynamics which now span over a century is build on a body of knowledge...
Data-driven model analysis of the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on tuberculosis incidence
September 2026
Tuberculosis (TB), a global infectious disease, poses a formidable challenge to Taiwan, China, exacerbated by its aging demographic and the incursion of pathogens from Southeast Asia's high-risk districts....
Modeling the Impact of Malaria Chemoprevention with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine on the spread of Plasmodium falciparum dhps A581G mutation
September 2026
Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is a key antimalarial used in chemoprevention strategies, including intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); intermittent preventive treatment in infants...
Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2023
Classical infectious disease models during epidemics have widespread usage, from predicting the probability of new infections to developing vaccination plans for informing policy decisions and public...
Dynamic properties of an SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model via stochastic PINNs
September 2026
This paper introduces a novel stochastic SEIRV model for investigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using stochastic physics-informed neural networks (S-PINNs). We first prove the global positivity...
Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication
December 2024
Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...
