Analysis of the effect of PCR testing and antigen testing on controlling the transmission for Omicron based on different scenarios
December 2023
After the policy adjustment, China no longer carries out COVID-19 PCR testing for all people, and antigen testing has become the main way to detect and manage infectious sources. We developed a dynamic...
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Bayesian modeling of dynamic behavioral change during an epidemic
December 2023
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change...
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Hypothesis testing of Poisson rates in COVID-19 offspring distributions
December 2023
In the present study, we undertake the task of hypothesis testing in the context of Poisson-distributed data. The primary objective of our investigation is to ascertain whether two distinct sets of...
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Estimating the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) by using particle filter
December 2023
Monitoring the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requires accurate estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt). However, existing methods for calculating Rt may yield biased...
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Mathematical analysis of pulse vaccination in controlling the dynamics of measles transmission
December 2023
Although the incidence of measles has been significantly reduced through vaccination, it remains an important public health problem. In this paper, a measles model with pulse vaccination is formulated...
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COVID-19 transmission driven by age-group mathematical model in Shijiazhuang City of China
December 2023
A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Herein, we investigated the...
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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
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Evaluation of vaccine rollout strategies for emerging infectious diseases: A model-based approach including protection attitudes
December 2023
Vaccine allocation strategies become crucial during vaccine shortages, especially in the face of potential outbreaks of new infectious diseases, as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. To address...
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Estimating effective reproduction number revisited
December 2023
Accurately estimating the effective reproduction number is crucial for characterizing the transmissibility of infectious diseases to optimize interventions and responses during epidemic outbreaks. In...
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The impact of EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province, China: A negative control study
December 2023
To estimate the potential causal impact of Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program on the reduction of EV71-infected hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang Province....
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High-dimensional supervised classification in a context of non-independence of observations to identify the determining SNPs in a phenotype
December 2023
This work addresses the problem of supervised classification for highly correlated high-dimensional data describing non-independent observations to identify SNPs related to a phenotype. We use a general...
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Vaccine breakthrough and rebound infections modeling: Analysis for the United States and the ten U.S. HHS regions
September 2023
A vaccine breakthrough infection and a rebound infection cases of COVID-19 are studied and analyzed for the ten U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regions and the United States as a...
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Simulation of optimal dose regimens of photoactivated curcumin for antimicrobial resistance pneumonia in COVID-19 patients: A modeling approach
September 2023
Secondary antimicrobial resistance bacterial (AMR) pneumonia could lead to an increase in mortality in COVID-19 patients, particularly of geriatric patients with underlying diseases. The comedication...
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Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study
September 2023
The potential for dengue fever epidemic due to climate change remains uncertain in tropical areas. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on dengue fever transmission in four South and...
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Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario
September 2023
In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a fundamental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of preventive political, social and pharmaceutical...
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The dynamics of the risk perception on a social network and its effect on disease dynamics
September 2023
The perceived infection risk changes individual behaviors, which further affects the disease dynamics. This perception is influenced by social communication, including surveying their social network...
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An exploration of the relationship between wastewater viral signals and COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ottawa, Canada
September 2023
Monitoring of viral signal in wastewater is considered a useful tool for monitoring the burden of COVID-19, especially during times of limited availability in testing. Studies have shown that COVID-19...
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Time delay of the appearance of a new strain can affect vaccination behavior and disease dynamics: An evolutionary explanation
September 2023
The emergence of a novel strain during a pandemic, like the current COVID-19, is a major concern to the healthcare system. The most effective strategy to control this type of pandemic is vaccination....
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EpiMix: A novel method to estimate effective reproduction number
September 2023
Transmission potential of a pathogen, often quantified by the time-varying reproduction number Rt, provides the current pace of infection for a disease and indicates whether an emerging epidemic is...
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The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model
September 2023
Successive generalisations of the basic SEIR model have been proposed to accommodate the different needs of the organisations handling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the assessment of the public health...
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A nonlinear relapse model with disaggregated contact rates: Analysis of a forward-backward bifurcation
September 2023
Throughout the progress of epidemic scenarios, individuals in different health classes are expected to have different average daily contact behavior. This contact heterogeneity has been studied in recent...
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Mathematical modeling for Delta and Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Greece
September 2023
A compartmental, epidemiological, mathematical model was developed in order to analyze the transmission dynamics of Delta and Omicron variant, of SARS-CoV-2, in Greece. The model was parameterized twice...
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Improvement of the software for modeling the dynamics of epidemics and developing a user-friendly interface
September 2023
The challenges humanity is facing due to the Covid-19 pandemic require timely and accurate forecasting of the dynamics of various epidemics to minimize the negative consequences for public health and...
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Effects and interaction of temperature and relative humidity on the trend of influenza prevalence: A multi-central study based on 30 provinces in mainland China from 2013 to 2018
September 2023
Evidence is inefficient about how meteorological factors influence the trends of influenza transmission in different regions of China....
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Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990–2021
September 2023
The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China....
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