Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation
June 2022
Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides...
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Seroprevalence and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in Indian cities
June 2022
Serological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations. The sensitivity of the testing assay, Abbott, drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological...
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Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
June 2022
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy,...
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Exploring predictive frameworks for malaria in Burundi
June 2022
In Burundi, malaria infection has been increasing in the last decade despite efforts to increase access to health services, and several intervention programs. The use of heterogeneous data can help...
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Incorporating the mutational landscape of SARS-COV-2 variants and case-dependent vaccination rates into epidemic models
June 2022
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), which began as a small outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, became a global pandemic within months due to its high transmissibility. In the absence of pharmaceutical...
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First-wave COVID-19 daily cases obey gamma law
June 2022
Modelling how a pandemic is spreading over time is a challenging issue. The new coronavirus disease called COVID-19 does not escape this rule as it has embraced over two hundred countries. As for previous...
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Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies
June 2022
At the end of 2021, with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant, testing centers in Canada were overwhelmed. To alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity, many provinces...
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Balancing timeliness of reporting with increasing testing probability for epidemic data
June 2022
Reporting of epidemiological data requires coordinated action by numerous agencies, across a multitude of logistical steps. Using collated and reported information to inform direct interventions can...
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An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand
June 2022
New Zealand delayed the introduction of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 into the community by the continued use of strict border controls through to January 2022. This allowed time for vaccination...
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Quantitative analysis of the impact of various urban socioeconomic indicators on search-engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence
June 2022
Numerous studies have proposed search engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, their estimation models do not consider the impact of various urban socioeconomic...
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Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study
June 2022
Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological...
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Dynamics of novel COVID-19 in the presence of Co-morbidity
June 2022
A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has emerged as a global serious public health issue from December 2019. People having a weak immune system are more susceptible to coronavirus infection. It is a double...
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Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using SEIR and ARIMA models
Available online 23 May 2022
COVID-19, a coronavirus disease 2019, is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first case in Kenya was identified on 13th March 2020, with the...
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Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: A modelling study
Available online 23 May 2022
In China, the burden of shigellosis is unevenly distributed, notably across various ages and geographical areas. Shigellosis temporal trends appear to be seasonal. We should clarify seasonal warnings...
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Switched forced SEIRDV compartmental models to monitor COVID-19 spread and immunization in Italy
March 2022
This paper presents a new hybrid compartmental model for studying the COVID-19 epidemic evolution in Italy since the beginning of the vaccination campaign started on 2020/12/27 and shows forecasts of...
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Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
March 2022
This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, may lead to a catastrophic...
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Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm
March 2022
This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA) and the UK. Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus...
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A COVID-19 mathematical model of at-risk populations with non-pharmaceutical preventive measures: The case of Brazil and South Africa
March 2022
This work examines a mathematical model of COVID-19 among two subgroups: low-risk and high-risk populations with two preventive measures; non-pharmaceutical interventions including wearing masks, maintaining...
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Vaccine efficacy and SARS-CoV-2 control in California and U.S. during the session 2020–2026: A modeling study
March 2022
Besides maintaining health precautions, vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2, though no clinically proved 100% effective vaccine has been developed till date. At this stage, to withhold...
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Optimal control analysis of hepatocytic-erythrocytic dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria
March 2022
This paper presents an in-host malaria model subject to anti-malarial drug treatment and malaria vaccine antigens combinations. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is applied to establish optimal control...
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Economic evaluations of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in six Western Pacific and South East Asian countries and regions: A modeling study
March 2022
The present study aimed to document the economic profiles of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the evidence on which is...
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The allometric propagation of COVID-19 is explained by human travel
March 2022
We analyzed the number of cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 as a function of time in countries around the World. We tracked the increase in cases from the onset of the pandemic in each region for...
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Inverse problem for adaptive SIR model: Application to COVID-19 in Latin America
March 2022
This work presents a method for solving an Adaptive Susceptible-Infected-Removed (A-SIR) epidemic model with time-dependent transmission and removal rates. Available COVID-19 data as of March 2021 are...
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Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of an age-structured emerging infectious disease model
March 2022
Emerging infectious diseases are one of the global public health problems which may lead to widespread epidemics and potentially life-threatening infection. Integrated vaccination and physical distancing...
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Stochastic modeling, analysis, and simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic with explicit behavioral changes in Bogotá: A case study
March 2022
In this paper, a stochastic epidemiological model is presented as an extension of a compartmental SEIR model with random perturbations to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of...
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