Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity
March 2025
An influenza forecasting system is critical to influenza epidemic preparedness. Low temperature has long been recognized as a condition favoring influenza epidemic, yet it fails to justify the summer...
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Regional variations in HIV diagnosis in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2025
The number of people undergoing voluntary HIV testing has abruptly decreased since 2020. The geographical heterogeneity of HIV infection and the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis of HIV at regional...
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A data science pipeline applied to Australia's 2022 COVID-19 Omicron waves
March 2025
The field of software engineering is advancing at astonishing speed, with packages now available to support many stages of data science pipelines. These packages can support infectious disease modelling...
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Exploring the influencing factors of scrub typhus in Gannan region, China, based on spatial regression modelling and geographical detector
March 2025
Scrub typhus is a significant public health issue with a wide distribution and is influenced by various determinants. However, in order to effectively eradicate scrub typhus, it is crucial to identify...
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Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics
March 2025
Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common...
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Flexible regression model for predicting the dissemination of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus under variable climatic conditions
March 2025
Greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), poses a severe threat to global citrus cultivation, affecting various citrus species and compromising fruit production. Primarily transmitted by psyllids during phloem...
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A heterogeneous continuous age-structured model of mumps with vaccine
March 2025
In classical mumps models, individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed (homogeneous), ignoring population heterogeneity (preference, activity, etc.). Age is the key to catching mixed patterns...
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Nonlinear mixed models and related approaches in infectious disease modeling: A systematic and critical review
March 2025
The level of surveillance and preparedness against epidemics varies across countries, resulting in different responses to outbreaks. When conducting an in-depth analysis of microinfection dynamics,...
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Impact of vaccination on Omicron's escape variants: Insights from fine-scale modelling of waning immunity in Hong Kong
March 2025
COVID-19 vaccine-induced protection declines over time. This waning of immunity has been described in modelling as a lower level of protection. This study incorporated fine-scale vaccine waning into...
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Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration
March 2025
Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the...
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Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden
March 2025
As public health policies shifted in 2023 from emergency response to long-term COVID-19 disease management, immunization programs started to face the challenge of formulating routine booster campaigns...
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Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models
December 2024
As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from...
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Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study
December 2024
The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...
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Confounding amplifies the effect of environmental factors on COVID-19
December 2024
The global COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted human health and socioeconomic development, posing an enormous public health challenge. Extensive research has been conducted into the relationship...
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Predicting plant disease epidemics using boosted regression trees
December 2024
Plant epidemics are often associated with weather-related variables. It is difficult to identify weather-related predictors for models predicting plant epidemics. In the article by Shah et al., to predict...
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On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak
December 2024
We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet available. At that stage, control is often limited to non-medical...
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Modeling and investigating malaria P. Falciparum and P. Vivax infections: Application to Djibouti data
December 2024
Malaria is an infectious and communicable disease, caused by one or more species of Plasmodium parasites. There are five species of parasites responsible for malaria in humans, of which two, Plasmodium...
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Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication
December 2024
Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...
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Analysing vaccine efficacy evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials carried out during outbreaks
December 2024
In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy (VE) that we found in the literature, for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks, that is, when the force of infection grows in...
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Gonorrhea cluster detection in Manitoba, Canada: Spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal analysis
December 2024
In Canada, Gonorrhea infection ranks as the second most prevalent sexually transmitted infection. In 2018, Manitoba reported an incidence rate three times greater than the national average. This study...
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Schistosomiasis transmission in Zimbabwe: Modelling based on machine learning
December 2024
Zimbabwe, located in Southern Africa, faces a significant public health challenge due to schistosomiasis. We investigated this issue with emphasis on risk prediction of schistosomiasis for the entire...
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A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
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Optimal vaccination strategies on networks and in metropolitan areas
December 2024
This study presents a mathematical model for optimal vaccination strategies in interconnected metropolitan areas, considering commuting patterns. It is a compartmental model with a vaccination rate...
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A parsimonious Bayesian predictive model for forecasting new reported cases of West Nile disease
December 2024
Upon researching predictive models related to West Nile virus disease, it is discovered that there are numerous parameters and extensive information in most models, thus contributing to unnecessary...
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A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters
December 2024
We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework...
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