Stage specific immune responses to schistosomes may explain conflicting results in malaria-schistosome coinfection studies
December 2025
Malaria and schistosomiasis are two of the most clinically important human parasitic diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality, collectively causing approximately 800,000 deaths annually. Coinfection...
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The role of spontaneous clearance on fractional analysis of HBV
December 2025
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions.The present study proposes...
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Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB
December 2025
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this...
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Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models
December 2025
This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends....
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Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City
December 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted heterogeneities in human behavior and attitudes of individuals with respect to adherence or lack thereof to public health-mandated intervention...
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Regional variation and epidemiological insights in malaria underestimation in Cameroon
December 2025
Despite significant global effort to control and eradicate malaria, many cases and deaths are still reported yearly. These efforts are hindered by several factors, including the severe underestimation...
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Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation
December 2025
Understanding the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals by age is essential for improving the test-and-treat strategy. We developed an extended back-calculation by age group to investigate...
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Avian influenza virus dynamics in poultry and the environment: an eight-year longitudinal study in the southwestern Poyang Lake region of China
December 2025
Surveillance of the Avian influenza virus serves as the first line of defense, encompassing monitoring of both animals and environment. These approaches vary across countries due to differences in epidemiology...
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Modelling the impact of vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics under stratified populations and seasonality
December 2025
Different types of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are currently available in the global market to combat cholera epidemic. In most of developing countries, there is comparatively limited deployment of...
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Control of Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and Rocky Mountain spotted fever informed by an in silico tool
December 2025
We explored a compartment “susceptible-infected-recovered” model to prioritize and test the effectiveness of dog- and tick-based interventions against Rocky Mountain spotted fever and its tick vector...
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Analysis of vaccination strategies in a heterosexual HPV transmission model with a case study in Xinjiang of China
December 2025
Vaccination has confirmed efficacy in preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The inclusion of males in vaccination programs remains a subject of debate, and the optimal allocation of vaccines...
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Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies
December 2025
In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols,...
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Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model
December 2025
Epidemic prediction is a crucial foundation of disease control policy-making. Owing to the high population connectivity of current epidemics, it is essential to capture the spatial transmission of infectious...
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Wonder drugs and where to use them: a forecast of ivermectin's impact on malaria in Africa
December 2025
A study in Burkina Faso revealed ivermectin inhibits malaria transmission by killing malaria parasites and mosquitoes. However, it is unknown what effect this drug will have on the malaria transmission...
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Early prediction of the outbreak risk of dengue fever in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam: An analysis based on Google trends and statistical models
September 2025
Dengue fever (DF), caused by the Dengue virus through the Aedes mosquito vector, is a dangerous infectious disease with the potential to become a global epidemic. Vietnam, particularly Ba Ria-Vung Tau...
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Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
September 2025
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments...
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A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model
September 2025
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic...
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The interaction between population age structure and policy interventions on the spread of COVID-19
September 2025
COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented public health crisis and a global economic shock. As countries and cities have transitioned away from strict pandemic restrictions, the most effective reopening...
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Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains
September 2025
Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control...
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Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting
September 2025
Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on February 20, 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used to study...
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Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection
September 2025
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread...
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Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention
September 2025
For emerging respiratory infectious diseases like COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation are crucial for controlling the spread. From the perspective of network transmission, non-pharmaceutical...
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Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling
September 2025
Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary...
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Evolution into chaos – Implications of the trade-off between transmissibility and immune evasion
September 2025
Predicting viral evolution presents a significant challenge and is a critical public health priority. In response to this challenge, we develop a novel model for viral evolution that considers a trade-off...
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Dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation and quarantine: A probability-based deterministic model
September 2025
Assuming a homogeneous population, we employ a deterministic model based on first principles of probability to explore dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation alone, quarantine alone, and the...
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