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ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication

Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...

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Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from...

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On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak

We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet available. At that stage, control is often limited to non-medical...

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Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...

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Analysing vaccine efficacy evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials carried out during outbreaks

In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy (VE) that we found in the literature, for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks, that is, when the force of infection grows in...

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Gonorrhea cluster detection in Manitoba, Canada: Spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal analysis

In Canada, Gonorrhea infection ranks as the second most prevalent sexually transmitted infection. In 2018, Manitoba reported an incidence rate three times greater than the national average. This study...

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Schistosomiasis transmission in Zimbabwe: Modelling based on machine learning

Zimbabwe, located in Southern Africa, faces a significant public health challenge due to schistosomiasis. We investigated this issue with emphasis on risk prediction of schistosomiasis for the entire...

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Modeling and investigating malaria P. Falciparum and P. Vivax infections: Application to Djibouti data

Malaria is an infectious and communicable disease, caused by one or more species of Plasmodium parasites. There are five species of parasites responsible for malaria in humans, of which two, Plasmodium...

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Predicting plant disease epidemics using boosted regression trees

Plant epidemics are often associated with weather-related variables. It is difficult to identify weather-related predictors for models predicting plant epidemics. In the article by Shah et al., to predict...

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A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19

Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...

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Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks

The basic reproduction number, R0, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R0 from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation...

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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models

During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...

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Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy

In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most...

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Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution

The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale...

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Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan

Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...

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Ebola virus disease model with a nonlinear incidence rate and density-dependent treatment

This paper studies an Ebola epidemic model with an exponential nonlinear incidence function that considers the efficacy and the behaviour change. The current model also incorporates a new density-dependent...

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Integrating immunoinformatics and computational epitope prediction for a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine...

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A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border...

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An effectiveness study of vaccination and quarantine combination strategies for containing mpox transmission on simulated college campuses

The ongoing transmission of mpox in specific countries and regions necessitates urgent action. It is essential to implement targeted containment strategies that concentrate on high-risk populations...

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An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave

The structure of age groups and social contacts of the total population influenced infection scales and hospital-bed requirements, especially influenced severe infections and deaths during the global...

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Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.

Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the...

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Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, disproportionately affected certain segments of society, particularly the elderly population (which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms...

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Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection...

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Predicting influenza-like illness trends based on sentinel surveillance data in China from 2011 to 2019: A modelling and comparative study1

Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with a significant global disease burden. Additionally, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)...

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Prediction and control of cholera outbreak: Study case of Cameroon

This paper deals with the problem of the prediction and control of cholera outbreak using real data of Cameroon. We first develop and analyze a deterministic model with seasonality for the cholera,...

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