Mathematics of a single-locus model for assessing the impacts of pyrethroid resistance and temperature on population abundance of malaria mosquitoes
September 2022
This study presents a genetic-ecology modeling framework for assessing the combined impacts of insecticide resistance, temperature variability, and insecticide-based interventions on the population...
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Evaluating recurrent episodes of malaria incidence in Timika, Indonesia, through a Markovian multiple-state model
September 2022
The high prevalence of malaria in endemic areas generally stems from recurrence events, characterized by the appearance of malaria symptoms at the time of examination; nearly every resident is at risk...
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Estimate of the rate of unreported COVID-19 cases during the first outbreak in Rio de Janeiro
September 2022
In this work we fit an epidemiological model SEIAQR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Asymptomatic - Quarantined - Removed) to the data of the first COVID-19 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil....
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Predictive approach of COVID-19 propagation via multiple-terms sigmoidal transition model
Available online 1 July 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic with its new variants has severely affected the whole world socially and economically. This study presents a novel data analysis approach to predict the spread of COVID-19. SIR...
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Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation
June 2022
Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides...
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Seroprevalence and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in Indian cities
June 2022
Serological surveys were used to infer the infection attack rate in different populations. The sensitivity of the testing assay, Abbott, drops fast over time since infection which makes the serological...
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Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
June 2022
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy,...
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Exploring predictive frameworks for malaria in Burundi
June 2022
In Burundi, malaria infection has been increasing in the last decade despite efforts to increase access to health services, and several intervention programs. The use of heterogeneous data can help...
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Incorporating the mutational landscape of SARS-COV-2 variants and case-dependent vaccination rates into epidemic models
June 2022
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), which began as a small outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, became a global pandemic within months due to its high transmissibility. In the absence of pharmaceutical...
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First-wave COVID-19 daily cases obey gamma law
June 2022
Modelling how a pandemic is spreading over time is a challenging issue. The new coronavirus disease called COVID-19 does not escape this rule as it has embraced over two hundred countries. As for previous...
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Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies
June 2022
At the end of 2021, with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant, testing centers in Canada were overwhelmed. To alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity, many provinces...
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Balancing timeliness of reporting with increasing testing probability for epidemic data
June 2022
Reporting of epidemiological data requires coordinated action by numerous agencies, across a multitude of logistical steps. Using collated and reported information to inform direct interventions can...
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An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand
June 2022
New Zealand delayed the introduction of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 into the community by the continued use of strict border controls through to January 2022. This allowed time for vaccination...
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Quantitative analysis of the impact of various urban socioeconomic indicators on search-engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence
June 2022
Numerous studies have proposed search engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, their estimation models do not consider the impact of various urban socioeconomic...
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Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study
June 2022
Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological...
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Dynamics of novel COVID-19 in the presence of Co-morbidity
June 2022
A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has emerged as a global serious public health issue from December 2019. People having a weak immune system are more susceptible to coronavirus infection. It is a double...
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Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya using SEIR and ARIMA models
June 2022
COVID-19, a coronavirus disease 2019, is an ongoing pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first case in Kenya was identified on March 13, 2020, with the...
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Shigellosis seasonality and transmission characteristics in different areas of China: A modelling study
June 2022
In China, the burden of shigellosis is unevenly distributed, notably across various ages and geographical areas. Shigellosis temporal trends appear to be seasonal. We should clarify seasonal warnings...
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A transmission dynamics model of COVID-19: Case of Cameroon
June 2022
In this work, we propose and investigate an ordinary differential equations model describing the spread of COVID-19 in Cameroon. The model takes into account the asymptomatic, unreported symptomatic,...
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Computing R0 of dynamic models by a definition-based method
June 2022
Computing the basic reproduction number (R0) in deterministic dynamical models is a hot topic and is frequently demanded by researchers in public health. The next-generation methods (NGM) are widely...
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Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
June 2022
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic...
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Studying the mixed transmission in a community with age heterogeneity: COVID-19 as a case study
June 2022
COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our society. Before vaccines were available, the main disease intervention strategies were non-pharmaceutical....
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Publisher's note
June 2022
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From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model
Available online 30 June 2022
There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments....
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Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis: Insights from fluorography data
Available online 30 June 2022
Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis: unknown are both the rates of progression and the model “scheme”. The “parallel” scheme assumes that...
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