Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models
December 2024
As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from...
Share article
Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study
December 2024
The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...
Share article
Confounding amplifies the effect of environmental factors on COVID-19
December 2024
The global COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted human health and socioeconomic development, posing an enormous public health challenge. Extensive research has been conducted into the relationship...
Share article
Predicting plant disease epidemics using boosted regression trees
December 2024
Plant epidemics are often associated with weather-related variables. It is difficult to identify weather-related predictors for models predicting plant epidemics. In the article by Shah et al., to predict...
Share article
On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak
December 2024
We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet available. At that stage, control is often limited to non-medical...
Share article
Modeling and investigating malaria P. Falciparum and P. Vivax infections: Application to Djibouti data
December 2024
Malaria is an infectious and communicable disease, caused by one or more species of Plasmodium parasites. There are five species of parasites responsible for malaria in humans, of which two, Plasmodium...
Share article
Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication
December 2024
Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...
Share article
Analysing vaccine efficacy evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials carried out during outbreaks
December 2024
In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy (VE) that we found in the literature, for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks, that is, when the force of infection grows in...
Share article
Gonorrhea cluster detection in Manitoba, Canada: Spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal analysis
December 2024
In Canada, Gonorrhea infection ranks as the second most prevalent sexually transmitted infection. In 2018, Manitoba reported an incidence rate three times greater than the national average. This study...
Share article
Schistosomiasis transmission in Zimbabwe: Modelling based on machine learning
December 2024
Zimbabwe, located in Southern Africa, faces a significant public health challenge due to schistosomiasis. We investigated this issue with emphasis on risk prediction of schistosomiasis for the entire...
Share article
A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
Share article
Optimal vaccination strategies on networks and in metropolitan areas
December 2024
This study presents a mathematical model for optimal vaccination strategies in interconnected metropolitan areas, considering commuting patterns. It is a compartmental model with a vaccination rate...
Share article
A parsimonious Bayesian predictive model for forecasting new reported cases of West Nile disease
December 2024
Upon researching predictive models related to West Nile virus disease, it is discovered that there are numerous parameters and extensive information in most models, thus contributing to unnecessary...
Share article
A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters
December 2024
We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework...
Share article
Chronic disease patients have fewer social contacts: A pilot survey with implications for transmission dynamics
September 2024
Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the most important cause of death in the world. The socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st century....
Share article
Predicting influenza-like illness trends based on sentinel surveillance data in China from 2011 to 2019: A modelling and comparative study1
September 2024
Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with a significant global disease burden. Additionally, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)...
Share article
Ebola virus disease model with a nonlinear incidence rate and density-dependent treatment
September 2024
This paper studies an Ebola epidemic model with an exponential nonlinear incidence function that considers the efficacy and the behaviour change. The current model also incorporates a new density-dependent...
Share article
Analysis of a diffusive two-strain malaria model with the carrying capacity of the environment for mosquitoes
September 2024
We propose a malaria model involving the sensitive and resistant strains, which is described by reaction-diffusion equations. The model reflects the scenario that the vector and host populations disperse...
Share article
Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases
September 2024
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the world, causing major public health problems in developing countries. The rate of TB incidence in Iran was estimated to be 13...
Share article
Parameter identifiability of a within-host SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model
September 2024
Parameter identification involves the estimation of undisclosed parameters within a system based on observed data and mathematical models. In this investigation, we employ DAISY to meticulously examine...
Share article
Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution
September 2024
The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale...
Share article
An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave
September 2024
The structure of age groups and social contacts of the total population influenced infection scales and hospital-bed requirements, especially influenced severe infections and deaths during the global...
Share article
Integrating immunoinformatics and computational epitope prediction for a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus
September 2024
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine...
Share article
Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.
September 2024
Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the...
Share article
Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan
September 2024
Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...
Share article
