Expanding optimization ensemble model methods for forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.
December 2026
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic sees significant variability in its evolution. Accurate forecasts of future influenza cases are important for planning public health responses. The United...
Dynamics of infectious disease spread between transportation hubs and surrounding communities
December 2026
Urban transit systems, particularly those in major metropolitan areas, are becoming increasingly interconnected, making it essential to better understand passenger mobility and its implications for...
Memory mechanisms for behavioural change in Bayesian individual-level spatial epidemic models
December 2026
Accurate modelling of infectious disease transmission often requires capturing how individuals adjust their behaviours in response to evolving epidemic conditions. While recently developed behavioural...
Modeling two-strain competition with reinfection: Mathematical analyses and epidemiological implications
December 2026
We propose a new epidemic model for the interactions between two different strains associated with the same pathogen. Our focus is how the competition between multiple strains and the impact of reinfection...
Rapid assessment of local disease control measures against the Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia in late 2025
December 2026
In November 2025, Marburg virus caused the first outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia. By December 15, a total of 14 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, including 9 deaths, corresponding...
Quantitative risk assessment of avian influenza: A scoping review
December 2026
Avian influenza virus (AIV) continues to pose serious risks to animal and public health. Understanding its spread requires integrating ecological, agricultural, and human information. Quantitative models...
When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes
December 2026
Wildlife aggregate for many reasons (e.g. reproduction, feeding) and at times these aggregations can be extreme, with host densities increasing several orders of magnitude. While the impact of seasonality...
Modeling and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry using network disease dynamics
December 2026
In light of the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI outbreak in the U.S., which affects millions of commercial and backyard flocks, disrupts egg and meat production, and causes significant economic losses, it is...
Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of HIV/AIDS in Africa: A retrospective analysis of epidemiological trends
December 2026
Africa bears the highest global burden of HIV, with marked regional inequalities in prevalence, incidence and clinical outcomes. Mapping the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic is essential...
Comparing methods to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers using genomic and epidemiological data
December 2026
Estimating the time-varying reproduction number Rt during an epidemic is important. Rt indicates whether an epidemic is growing or declining and can aid in assessing the impact of interventions. Recent...
Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
From qualitative prediction to quantitative insight: combined meteorological patterns and regional dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Liaoning Province, China, 2010–2024
September 2026
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with an expanding range and increasing public health burden. Meteorology-driven frameworks that integrate qualitative...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response
September 2026
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's...
Data-driven model analysis of the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on tuberculosis incidence
September 2026
Tuberculosis (TB), a global infectious disease, poses a formidable challenge to Taiwan, China, exacerbated by its aging demographic and the incursion of pathogens from Southeast Asia's high-risk districts....
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model with deterministic/stochastic migration and distributed delays
September 2026
We study the global dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model that integrates spatial migration, Erlang-distributed delays, and environmental stochasticity. The two patches are coupled by migration whose...
The coupling process of awareness and disease under the influence of synergistic-hedging effect of information resources
September 2026
Information serves as a crucial yet invisible resources and can be categorized into two types: positive information resources and negative information resources. Different types of information resources...
Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions — United States, 2022–2025
September 2026
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates influenza forecasting efforts with approximately 30 academic and industry teams and combines their short-term, weekly forecasts...
Spatial point pattern analysis of environmental effects on valley fever intensity in Phoenix, Arizona
September 2026
Using a novel Arizona Medicaid data set, we model Valley fever (VF) cases in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area as a spatial point process during six month intervals between 2013 and 2023. We estimate the...
