The role of spontaneous clearance on fractional analysis of HBV
December 2025
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions.The present study proposes...
Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB
December 2025
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this...
Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models
December 2025
This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends....
Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City
December 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted heterogeneities in human behavior and attitudes of individuals with respect to adherence or lack thereof to public health-mandated intervention...
Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation
December 2025
Understanding the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals by age is essential for improving the test-and-treat strategy. We developed an extended back-calculation by age group to investigate...
Avian influenza virus dynamics in poultry and the environment: an eight-year longitudinal study in the southwestern Poyang Lake region of China
December 2025
Surveillance of the Avian influenza virus serves as the first line of defense, encompassing monitoring of both animals and environment. These approaches vary across countries due to differences in epidemiology...
Control of Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and Rocky Mountain spotted fever informed by an in silico tool
December 2025
We explored a compartment “susceptible-infected-recovered” model to prioritize and test the effectiveness of dog- and tick-based interventions against Rocky Mountain spotted fever and its tick vector...
Analysis of vaccination strategies in a heterosexual HPV transmission model with a case study in Xinjiang of China
December 2025
Vaccination has confirmed efficacy in preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The inclusion of males in vaccination programs remains a subject of debate, and the optimal allocation of vaccines...
Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies
December 2025
In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols,...
Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model
December 2025
Epidemic prediction is a crucial foundation of disease control policy-making. Owing to the high population connectivity of current epidemics, it is essential to capture the spatial transmission of infectious...
Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases based on real close contact behavior in an emergency room
December 2025
The risk of transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in emergency rooms is high, posing a severe threat to the health of healthcare workers (HCWs)....
Global stability for a cumulative release Ebola epidemic model from the corpses and infected individuals
December 2025
In this paper, a SVEIRDP epidemic model is proposed to investigate the transmission dynamics of Ebola by cumulative release from the infected individuals and corpses in the form of infinite integrals....
Stochastic modelling of viral infection spread via a Partial Integro-Differential Equation
December 2025
In the present article we propose a Partial Integro-Differential Equation (PIDE) model to approximate a stochastic SIS compartmental model for viral infection spread. First, an appropriate set of reactions...
A spatiotemporal transmission simulator for respiratory infectious diseases and its application to COVID-19
December 2025
The present study introduces a transmission dynamic simulator for respiratory infectious diseases by incorporating human movement data into a spatiotemporal transmission model. The model spatially divides...
Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study
December 2025
As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, are an important element of pandemic response. The overall impact of case isolation on epidemic...
A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies
December 2025
The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates...
Reinforcement learning-based event-driven optimal prevention control strategy for citrus huanglongbing model
December 2025
Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) is an infectious disease transmitted by Asian citrus psyllids (ACP), which leads to serious economic losses in the citrus industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate...
Interactive effects of meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants on influenza incidences 2019–2022 in Huaian, China
December 2025
Influenza is a global public health and economic burden. Its seasonality patterns differ considerably between geographic regions, but the factors underlying these differences are not well character...
A Bayesian modelling framework with model comparison for epidemics with super-spreading
December 2025
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading...
Predictive and early warning analysis of infectious gastroenteritis based on the BiLSTM-BiGRU model
December 2025
Appropriate use of scientific early-warning infectious disease surveillance methods plays a vital role in disease control and prevention. Recently infectious gastroenteritis has become an important...
Impact of asymptomatic infections on malaria transmission dynamics
December 2025
A considerable proportion of malaria infections are asymptomatic, serving as reservoirs that sustain transmission. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to examine the spread of malaria...
A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
Contributions of the elderly to the transmission of HIV/AIDS in China
December 2025
In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases shows an upward trend in China, particularly among the elderly, exerting severe effects on public health and social economy. This paper proposes an HIV/AIDS...
Analysis of human papillomavirus model with vaccination and individual heterogeneity
December 2025
The dynamic system of HPV transmission with age subgroups, sexual and nonsexual transmission is established based on HPV vaccination. Firstly, the transmission threshold R0 of the system is given. Local...
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022–2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation
December 2025
Mpox remains a signi_cant public health challenge in endemic regions of Africa. Understanding its spatial distribution and identifying key drivers in high-risk countries is critical for guiding e_ective...