Quantitative risk assessment of avian influenza: A scoping review
December 2026
Avian influenza virus (AIV) continues to pose serious risks to animal and public health. Understanding its spread requires integrating ecological, agricultural, and human information. Quantitative models...
When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes
December 2026
Wildlife aggregate for many reasons (e.g. reproduction, feeding) and at times these aggregations can be extreme, with host densities increasing several orders of magnitude. While the impact of seasonality...
Modeling and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry using network disease dynamics
December 2026
In light of the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI outbreak in the U.S., which affects millions of commercial and backyard flocks, disrupts egg and meat production, and causes significant economic losses, it is...
Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of HIV/AIDS in Africa: A retrospective analysis of epidemiological trends
December 2026
Africa bears the highest global burden of HIV, with marked regional inequalities in prevalence, incidence and clinical outcomes. Mapping the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic is essential...
Comparing methods to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers using genomic and epidemiological data
December 2026
Estimating the time-varying reproduction number Rt during an epidemic is important. Rt indicates whether an epidemic is growing or declining and can aid in assessing the impact of interventions. Recent...
Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
From qualitative prediction to quantitative insight: combined meteorological patterns and regional dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Liaoning Province, China, 2010–2024
September 2026
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with an expanding range and increasing public health burden. Meteorology-driven frameworks that integrate qualitative...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Estimation of the exponential growth rate of an epidemic
September 2026
Accurate estimation of the initial growth rate of an epidemic is critical for assessing transmissibility and guiding early interventions. Standard regression-based methods, such as negative binomial...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response
September 2026
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's...
Data-driven model analysis of the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on tuberculosis incidence
September 2026
Tuberculosis (TB), a global infectious disease, poses a formidable challenge to Taiwan, China, exacerbated by its aging demographic and the incursion of pathogens from Southeast Asia's high-risk districts....
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
A predictive model for rapid assessment of protective efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants
September 2026
An effective predictive model of protection would be very helpful to provide a timely and reliable evaluation of the vaccine induced protection against corresponding to rapidly emerging evolving SARS-CoV-2...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Mathematical modeling for analyzing mass drug administration operational factors for efficient malaria incidence reduction in southern Senegal
September 2026
Mass drug administration (MDA) has emerged as a promising strategy for reducing malaria incidence in many African countries. A pilot study of MDA in the Tambacounda health district in southeastern Senegal...
Dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model with deterministic/stochastic migration and distributed delays
September 2026
We study the global dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model that integrates spatial migration, Erlang-distributed delays, and environmental stochasticity. The two patches are coupled by migration whose...
Spatial point pattern analysis of environmental effects on valley fever intensity in Phoenix, Arizona
September 2026
Using a novel Arizona Medicaid data set, we model Valley fever (VF) cases in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area as a spatial point process during six month intervals between 2013 and 2023. We estimate the...
The coupling process of awareness and disease under the influence of synergistic-hedging effect of information resources
September 2026
Information serves as a crucial yet invisible resources and can be categorized into two types: positive information resources and negative information resources. Different types of information resources...
Global, regional, and national economic value of reducing amenable tuberculosis mortality
September 2026
Progress in reducing Tuberculosis (TB) mortality falls short of one-third of the End TB Strategy target, partly due to a high proportion of amenable deaths, most of which occur among individuals aged...
Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions — United States, 2022–2025
September 2026
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates influenza forecasting efforts with approximately 30 academic and industry teams and combines their short-term, weekly forecasts...
Acute respiratory infection (COVID-19) risk prediction in travelers: A random forest model
September 2026
Early screening during outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is critical for controlling disease spread among international travelers. However, the massive volume of traveler data generated...
