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Open access

ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

Impact of information dissemination and behavioural responses on epidemic dynamics: A multi-layer network analysis

Network models adeptly capture heterogeneities in individual interactions, making them well-suited for describing a wide range of real-world and virtual connections, including information diffusion,...

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Visual preferences for communicating modelling: a global analysis of COVID-19 policy and decision makers

Effective communication of modelling results to policy and decision makers has been a longstanding challenge in times of crises. This communication takes many forms - visualisations, reports, presentations...

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Characteristics and risk factors for outcomes in patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae mono- and coinfections: A multicenter surveillance study in Wuhan, China, 2023

Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) is a key cause of community-acquired pneumonia, and coinfections lead to varied patient outcomes. A comprehensive understanding of the outcome characteristics and associated...

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Estimation of under-reporting influenza cases in Hong Kong based on bayesian hierarchical framework

Influenza remains a global challenge, imposing a significant burden on society and the economy. Many influenza cases are asymptomatic, leading to greater uncertainty and the under-reporting of cases...

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Dynamic predicting hepatitis B surface antigen decline rate during treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B

Prediction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline rates during treatment is crucial for achieving a higher proportion of functional cure outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB),...

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Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia

Accurate identification of spatial patterns and risk factors of disease occurrence is crucial for public health interventions. However, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) poses challenges in disease...

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Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study

Contact tracing has been a key tool to contain the spread of diseases and was widely used by countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing has been...

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Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic

Contact tracing is an important public health measure to control disease transmission. However, it is difficult to assess contact tracing during the exponential stage of an epidemic with multiple control...

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Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...

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Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of a local-nonlocal dispersal SIR epidemic model with spatial heterogeneity

This research investigates a novel approach to modeling an SIR epidemic in a heterogeneous environment by imposing certain restrictions on population mobility. Our study reveals the influence of partially...

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Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic

An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...

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Can the prevalence of one STI serve as a predictor for another? A mathematical modeling analysis

We aimed to understand to what extent knowledge of the prevalence of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) can predict the prevalence of another STI, with application for men who have sex with men...

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Estimating cumulative infection rate of COVID-19 after adjusting the dynamic zero-COVID policy in China

At the end of 2022, China adjusted its coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control strategy. How this adjustment affected the cumulative infection rate is debated, and how second booster...

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Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China

Social contact patterns significantly influence the transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous surveys have quantified human social contact patterns, yielding heterogeneous results across...

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Treatment failure and the threshold of disease extinction

Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this...

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Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: A comparative analysis across pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 eras

This paper presents an investigation into the spatio-temporal dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) across the diverse health regions of Brazil from 2016 to 2024. Leveraging extensive...

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A modelling approach to characterise the interaction between behavioral response and epidemics: A study based on COVID-19

During epidemic outbreaks, human behavior is highly influential on the disease transmission and hence affects the course, duration and outcome of the epidemics. In order to examine the feedback effect...

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Lockdown policy in pandemics: Enforcement, adherence, and effectiveness in the case of COVID-19

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State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Dynamic regression and covariance analysis

We analyze COVID-19 surveillance data from Ontario, Canada, using state-space modelling techniques to address key challenges in understanding disease transmission dynamics. The study applies component...

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A mechanistic modeling approach to assessing the sensitivity of outcomes of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions to local contexts and intervention factors

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young children. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) improvements have historically been responsible for major public health gains,...

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Interventions for SARS-CoV-2 prevention among Jailed adults: A network-based modeling analysis

Airborne pathogens present challenges in settings like jails or prisons with a high density of contacts. The state of Georgia has the highest percentage of its citizens under correctional supervision...

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Diphtheria transmission dynamics – Unveiling generation time and reproduction numbers from the 2022–2023 outbreak in Kano state, Nigeria

Diphtheria, caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, remains a serious public health threat in areas with low vaccination coverage, despite global declines due to widespread immunization and improved...

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Data fitting and optimal control strategies for HBV acute patient cases in the United States

Infection with Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) has been a serious public health issue worldwide. It caused more than one million fatalities per year. The mathematical modelling of the disease allows better...

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A graph-theoretic framework for integrating mobility data into mathematical epidemic models

Advances in modeling the spread of infectious diseases have allowed modellers to relax the homogeneous mixing assumption of traditional compartmental models. The recently introduced synthetic network...

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Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether...

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