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ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

An effectiveness study of vaccination and quarantine combination strategies for containing mpox transmission on simulated college campuses

The ongoing transmission of mpox in specific countries and regions necessitates urgent action. It is essential to implement targeted containment strategies that concentrate on high-risk populations...

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Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical model

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the virus. While individuals...

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A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border...

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Prediction and control of cholera outbreak: Study case of Cameroon

This paper deals with the problem of the prediction and control of cholera outbreak using real data of Cameroon. We first develop and analyze a deterministic model with seasonality for the cholera,...

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Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making: A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy

In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most...

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Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, disproportionately affected certain segments of society, particularly the elderly population (which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms...

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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models

During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...

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Optimal vaccination strategies on networks and in metropolitan areas

This study presents a mathematical model for optimal vaccination strategies in interconnected metropolitan areas, considering commuting patterns. It is a compartmental model with a vaccination rate...

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Assessing the impact of interventions on the major Omicron BA.2 outbreak in spring 2022 in Shanghai

Shanghai experienced a significant surge in Omicron BA.2 infections from March to June 2022. In addition to the standard interventions in place at that time, additional interventions were implemented...

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SubEpiPredict: A tutorial-based primer and toolbox for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works. This modeling framework...

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Modelling the preventive treatment under media impact on tuberculosis: A comparison in four regions of China

Preventive treatment for people with latent Tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has aroused our great interest. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel mathematical model of TB considering preventive...

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Global stability for age-infection-structured human immunodeficiency virus model with heterogeneous transmission

In this paper, we analyze the global asymptotic behaviors of a mathematical susceptible-infected(SI) age-infection-structured human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) model with heterogeneous transmission....

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Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19

We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic...

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Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of COVID-19 cases in Johor

At the end of the year 2019, a virus named SARS-CoV-2 induced the coronavirus disease, which is very contagious and quickly spread around the world. This new infectious disease is called COVID-19. Numerous...

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Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis

Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using...

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Modelling the unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil

In late March 2020, SARS-CoV-2 arrived in Manaus, Brazil, and rapidly developed into a large-scale epidemic that collapsed the local health system and resulted in extreme death rates. Several key studies...

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Optimal decision-making in relieving global high temperature-related disease burden by data-driven simulation

The rapid acceleration of global warming has led to an increased burden of high temperature-related diseases (HTDs), highlighting the need for advanced evidence-based management strategies. We have...

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Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report

In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes...

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Valuation and comparison of the actual and optimal control strategy in an emerging infectious disease: Implication from a COVID-19 transmission model

To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic. In this paper,...

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The non-stationary and spatially varying associations between hand, foot and mouth disease and multiple environmental factors: A Bayesian spatiotemporal mapping model study

The transmission and prevalence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) are affected by a variety of natural and socio-economic environmental factors. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the...

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Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey

Key epidemiological parameters, including the effective reproduction number, R(t), and the instantaneous growth rate, r(t), generated from an ensemble of models, have been informing public health policy...

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Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control

This study introduces a novel SI2HR model, where “I2” denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal...

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Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. The primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination...

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Unravelling COVID-19 waves in Rio de Janeiro city: Qualitative insights from nonlinear dynamic analysis

Since the COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in 2019, it has rapidly spread around the world. Many countries implemented several measures to try to control the virus spreading. The healthcare system...

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