Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies
December 2025
In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols,...
Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model
December 2025
Epidemic prediction is a crucial foundation of disease control policy-making. Owing to the high population connectivity of current epidemics, it is essential to capture the spatial transmission of infectious...
Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases based on real close contact behavior in an emergency room
December 2025
The risk of transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in emergency rooms is high, posing a severe threat to the health of healthcare workers (HCWs)....
Global stability for a cumulative release Ebola epidemic model from the corpses and infected individuals
December 2025
In this paper, a SVEIRDP epidemic model is proposed to investigate the transmission dynamics of Ebola by cumulative release from the infected individuals and corpses in the form of infinite integrals....
Stochastic modelling of viral infection spread via a Partial Integro-Differential Equation
December 2025
In the present article we propose a Partial Integro-Differential Equation (PIDE) model to approximate a stochastic SIS compartmental model for viral infection spread. First, an appropriate set of reactions...
Wonder drugs and where to use them: a forecast of ivermectin's impact on malaria in Africa
December 2025
A study in Burkina Faso revealed ivermectin inhibits malaria transmission by killing malaria parasites and mosquitoes. However, it is unknown what effect this drug will have on the malaria transmission...
A spatiotemporal transmission simulator for respiratory infectious diseases and its application to COVID-19
December 2025
The present study introduces a transmission dynamic simulator for respiratory infectious diseases by incorporating human movement data into a spatiotemporal transmission model. The model spatially divides...
Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study
December 2025
As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, are an important element of pandemic response. The overall impact of case isolation on epidemic...
A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies
December 2025
The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates...
Reinforcement learning-based event-driven optimal prevention control strategy for citrus huanglongbing model
December 2025
Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) is an infectious disease transmitted by Asian citrus psyllids (ACP), which leads to serious economic losses in the citrus industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate...
Interactive effects of meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants on influenza incidences 2019–2022 in Huaian, China
December 2025
Influenza is a global public health and economic burden. Its seasonality patterns differ considerably between geographic regions, but the factors underlying these differences are not well character...
Ring vaccination and vector control as control strategies for potential yellow fever outbreak in an Asian city
December 2025
Yellow Fever (YF) importation remains an active risk to Southeast Asia. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of vector control and ring vaccination as containment strategies....
Modeling Neisseria meningitidis transmission dynamics and the impact of pentavalent vaccination targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X in the African meningitis belt
December 2025
The African meningitis belt (AMB) faces recurring epidemics of Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) (a bacterium that causes meningococcal meningitis), posing significant public health challenges. This study...
Hierarchical signal amplification for regional infectious disease risk assessment: A multidimensional approach from urban China
December 2025
Infectious disease surveillance systems face methodological limitations in early warning capabilities, particularly in integrating correlated indicators, assessing healthcare system impacts, and synthesizing...
A Bayesian modelling framework with model comparison for epidemics with super-spreading
December 2025
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading...
Predictive and early warning analysis of infectious gastroenteritis based on the BiLSTM-BiGRU model
December 2025
Appropriate use of scientific early-warning infectious disease surveillance methods plays a vital role in disease control and prevention. Recently infectious gastroenteritis has become an important...
Impact of asymptomatic infections on malaria transmission dynamics
December 2025
A considerable proportion of malaria infections are asymptomatic, serving as reservoirs that sustain transmission. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to examine the spread of malaria...
A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
Contributions of the elderly to the transmission of HIV/AIDS in China
December 2025
In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases shows an upward trend in China, particularly among the elderly, exerting severe effects on public health and social economy. This paper proposes an HIV/AIDS...
State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Stochastic simulation techniques and structural change detection
December 2025
We present an exploration of advanced stochastic simulation techniques for state-space models, with a specific focus on their applications in infectious disease modelling. Utilizing COVID-19 surveillance...
Analysis of human papillomavirus model with vaccination and individual heterogeneity
December 2025
The dynamic system of HPV transmission with age subgroups, sexual and nonsexual transmission is established based on HPV vaccination. Firstly, the transmission threshold R0 of the system is given. Local...
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022–2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation
December 2025
Mpox remains a signi_cant public health challenge in endemic regions of Africa. Understanding its spatial distribution and identifying key drivers in high-risk countries is critical for guiding e_ective...
A Multi-method Study Evaluating the Inference of Compartmental Model Parameters from a Generative Agent-Based Model
Available online 16 October 2025
Calibrating process models such as compartmental SIR Models to real data can be performed using either optimization or Bayesian techniques. To accurately assess the performance of these methods, synthetic...
Associations of ambient temperature and heat waves with risks of hepatitis E in Jiangsu, China (2010-2023): A time-stratified case-crossover study
Available online 10 October 2025
Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes substantial morbidity globally, with frequent outbreaks in low-resource settings due to fecal-oral transmission. Temperature and extreme heat may influence waterborne...
Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling
September 2025
Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary...