A Bayesian modelling framework with model comparison for epidemics with super-spreading
December 2025
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading...
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Predictive and early warning analysis of infectious gastroenteritis based on the BiLSTM-BiGRU model
December 2025
Appropriate use of scientific early-warning infectious disease surveillance methods plays a vital role in disease control and prevention. Recently infectious gastroenteritis has become an important...
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Impact of asymptomatic infections on malaria transmission dynamics
December 2025
A considerable proportion of malaria infections are asymptomatic, serving as reservoirs that sustain transmission. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to examine the spread of malaria...
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A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
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Contributions of the elderly to the transmission of HIV/AIDS in China
December 2025
In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases shows an upward trend in China, particularly among the elderly, exerting severe effects on public health and social economy. This paper proposes an HIV/AIDS...
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State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Stochastic simulation techniques and structural change detection
December 2025
We present an exploration of advanced stochastic simulation techniques for state-space models, with a specific focus on their applications in infectious disease modelling. Utilizing COVID-19 surveillance...
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Analysis of human papillomavirus model with vaccination and individual heterogeneity
December 2025
The dynamic system of HPV transmission with age subgroups, sexual and nonsexual transmission is established based on HPV vaccination. Firstly, the transmission threshold R0 of the system is given. Local...
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Early prediction of the outbreak risk of dengue fever in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam: An analysis based on Google trends and statistical models
September 2025
Dengue fever (DF), caused by the Dengue virus through the Aedes mosquito vector, is a dangerous infectious disease with the potential to become a global epidemic. Vietnam, particularly Ba Ria-Vung Tau...
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Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
September 2025
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments...
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A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model
September 2025
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic...
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Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains
September 2025
Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control...
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Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection
September 2025
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread...
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Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention
September 2025
For emerging respiratory infectious diseases like COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation are crucial for controlling the spread. From the perspective of network transmission, non-pharmaceutical...
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Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling
September 2025
Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary...
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Evolution into chaos – Implications of the trade-off between transmissibility and immune evasion
September 2025
Predicting viral evolution presents a significant challenge and is a critical public health priority. In response to this challenge, we develop a novel model for viral evolution that considers a trade-off...
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Impact of human mobility and weather conditions on Dengue mosquito abundance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong
September 2025
While Aedes mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, are expected to expand due to climate change, the impact of human mobility on them is largely unclear. Changes in human mobility, such as staying at home...
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Impact of information dissemination and behavioural responses on epidemic dynamics: A multi-layer network analysis
September 2025
Network models adeptly capture heterogeneities in individual interactions, making them well-suited for describing a wide range of real-world and virtual connections, including information diffusion,...
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Visual preferences for communicating modelling: a global analysis of COVID-19 policy and decision makers
September 2025
Effective communication of modelling results to policy and decision makers has been a longstanding challenge in times of crises. This communication takes many forms - visualisations, reports, presentations...
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Characteristics and risk factors for outcomes in patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae mono- and coinfections: A multicenter surveillance study in Wuhan, China, 2023
September 2025
Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) is a key cause of community-acquired pneumonia, and coinfections lead to varied patient outcomes. A comprehensive understanding of the outcome characteristics and associated...
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Estimation of under-reporting influenza cases in Hong Kong based on bayesian hierarchical framework
September 2025
Influenza remains a global challenge, imposing a significant burden on society and the economy. Many influenza cases are asymptomatic, leading to greater uncertainty and the under-reporting of cases...
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Dynamic predicting hepatitis B surface antigen decline rate during treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B
September 2025
Prediction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline rates during treatment is crucial for achieving a higher proportion of functional cure outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB),...
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Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia
September 2025
Accurate identification of spatial patterns and risk factors of disease occurrence is crucial for public health interventions. However, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) poses challenges in disease...
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Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study
September 2025
Contact tracing has been a key tool to contain the spread of diseases and was widely used by countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing has been...
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Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic
September 2025
Contact tracing is an important public health measure to control disease transmission. However, it is difficult to assess contact tracing during the exponential stage of an epidemic with multiple control...
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Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting
September 2025
Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on February 20, 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used to study...
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