Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study
December 2025
As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, are an important element of pandemic response. The overall impact of case isolation on epidemic...
A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies
December 2025
The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates...
Reinforcement learning-based event-driven optimal prevention control strategy for citrus huanglongbing model
December 2025
Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) is an infectious disease transmitted by Asian citrus psyllids (ACP), which leads to serious economic losses in the citrus industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate...
Interactive effects of meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants on influenza incidences 2019–2022 in Huaian, China
December 2025
Influenza is a global public health and economic burden. Its seasonality patterns differ considerably between geographic regions, but the factors underlying these differences are not well character...
Ring vaccination and vector control as control strategies for potential yellow fever outbreak in an Asian city
December 2025
Yellow Fever (YF) importation remains an active risk to Southeast Asia. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of vector control and ring vaccination as containment strategies....
Modeling Neisseria meningitidis transmission dynamics and the impact of pentavalent vaccination targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X in the African meningitis belt
December 2025
The African meningitis belt (AMB) faces recurring epidemics of Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) (a bacterium that causes meningococcal meningitis), posing significant public health challenges. This study...
Hierarchical signal amplification for regional infectious disease risk assessment: A multidimensional approach from urban China
December 2025
Infectious disease surveillance systems face methodological limitations in early warning capabilities, particularly in integrating correlated indicators, assessing healthcare system impacts, and synthesizing...
A Bayesian modelling framework with model comparison for epidemics with super-spreading
December 2025
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading...
Predictive and early warning analysis of infectious gastroenteritis based on the BiLSTM-BiGRU model
December 2025
Appropriate use of scientific early-warning infectious disease surveillance methods plays a vital role in disease control and prevention. Recently infectious gastroenteritis has become an important...
Impact of asymptomatic infections on malaria transmission dynamics
December 2025
A considerable proportion of malaria infections are asymptomatic, serving as reservoirs that sustain transmission. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to examine the spread of malaria...
A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil
December 2025
Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the...
Contributions of the elderly to the transmission of HIV/AIDS in China
December 2025
In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases shows an upward trend in China, particularly among the elderly, exerting severe effects on public health and social economy. This paper proposes an HIV/AIDS...
State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Stochastic simulation techniques and structural change detection
December 2025
We present an exploration of advanced stochastic simulation techniques for state-space models, with a specific focus on their applications in infectious disease modelling. Utilizing COVID-19 surveillance...
Analysis of human papillomavirus model with vaccination and individual heterogeneity
December 2025
The dynamic system of HPV transmission with age subgroups, sexual and nonsexual transmission is established based on HPV vaccination. Firstly, the transmission threshold R0 of the system is given. Local...
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022–2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation
December 2025
Mpox remains a signi_cant public health challenge in endemic regions of Africa. Understanding its spatial distribution and identifying key drivers in high-risk countries is critical for guiding e_ective...
Early prediction of the outbreak risk of dengue fever in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam: An analysis based on Google trends and statistical models
September 2025
Dengue fever (DF), caused by the Dengue virus through the Aedes mosquito vector, is a dangerous infectious disease with the potential to become a global epidemic. Vietnam, particularly Ba Ria-Vung Tau...
Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
September 2025
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments...
A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model
September 2025
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic...
Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection
September 2025
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread...
Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling
September 2025
Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary...
Impact of human mobility and weather conditions on Dengue mosquito abundance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong
September 2025
While Aedes mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, are expected to expand due to climate change, the impact of human mobility on them is largely unclear. Changes in human mobility, such as staying at home...
Characteristics and risk factors for outcomes in patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae mono- and coinfections: A multicenter surveillance study in Wuhan, China, 2023
September 2025
Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) is a key cause of community-acquired pneumonia, and coinfections lead to varied patient outcomes. A comprehensive understanding of the outcome characteristics and associated...
Dynamic predicting hepatitis B surface antigen decline rate during treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B
September 2025
Prediction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline rates during treatment is crucial for achieving a higher proportion of functional cure outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB),...
Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study
September 2025
Contact tracing has been a key tool to contain the spread of diseases and was widely used by countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing has been...
Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic
September 2025
Contact tracing is an important public health measure to control disease transmission. However, it is difficult to assess contact tracing during the exponential stage of an epidemic with multiple control...