Novel approach to extract epidemiological information from waves in epidemic's profiles
March 2026
In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical framework based on the Kermack- McKendrick model to extract epidemiological parameters from real temporal profiles consisting of waves. The approach's...
A framework using large time series model for early warning of infectious diseases
March 2026
Infectious diseases controlling system is indispensable for weaken the damage to the people's life and property security caused by infectious diseases. An effective infectious diseases controlling system...
Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model
March 2026
China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary...
Application of the type and target reproduction numbers to the evaluation of the influence of each prefecture in Japan on the disease spread
March 2026
In this study, by applying population mobility data in July, August and September of 2019–2023 in Japan to a multigroup epidemic model, we calculate the type and target reproduction numbers of each...
Vaccination games of boundedly rational parents toward new childhood immunization
March 2026
Infectious diseases harm societies through disease-induced morbidity, mortality, loss of productivity, and inequality. Thus, controlling and preventing them is critical for public health and societal...
Applications and reporting of causal inference modelling in infectious disease studies: A systematic review
March 2026
Causal inference is increasingly employed in infectious disease (ID) epidemiology. Despite the increasing adoption of causal inference methods in infectious disease research, there has been no comprehensive...
Optimizing spatiotemporal nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza: An adaptive reinforcement learning approach for regional heterogeneity
March 2026
Influenza remains a significant global public health challenge because of its high transmissibility, widespread circulation, and considerable societal impact. Conventional threshold-based nonpharmaceutical...
Travel-related importation risk of mpox from Hong Kong to Shenzhen in 2023: A modeling study
March 2026
Mpox, a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox, has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23, primarily linked to close intimate contact. In China, mpox cases...
Feasibility of eliminating adult hepatitis B in Guangdong by 2030: A modeling study
March 2026
Eliminating hepatitis B remains challenging, especially in Guangdong, the region with China's highest burden. Predicting incidence, optimizing vaccination, and reducing illness are essential to meet...
A multi-method study evaluating the inference of compartmental model parameters from a generative agent-based model
March 2026
Calibrating process models such as compartmental SIR Models to real data can be performed using either optimization or Bayesian techniques. To accurately assess the performance of these methods, synthetic...
Understanding human mobility patterns under a public health emergency
March 2026
Understanding human mobility changes during epidemics is critical for predicting disease spread and planning interventions. However, capturing fine-scale dynamics is challenging....
Surveillance of infectious diseases spreading on time-varying multiplex networks
March 2026
Surveillance of infectious disease transmission is crucial for early detection and timely intervention. Existing studies mainly focus on static single-layer networks, primarily aiming to identify which...
Associations of ambient temperature and heat waves with risks of hepatitis E in Jiangsu, China (2010–2023): A time-stratified case-crossover study
March 2026
Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes substantial morbidity globally, with frequent outbreaks in low-resource settings due to fecal-oral transmission. Temperature and extreme heat may influence waterborne...
Predicting the burden of co-infections in seasonally driven dynamics of pediatric rotavirus and norovirus
March 2026
Rotavirus and norovirus are principal viral agents of acute gastroenteritis, primarily transmitted through close contact. Although each virus has its own capability to spread the epidemic, rotavirus...
COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) implied by the serology, antibody, testing in New York City
March 2026
This paper estimates COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) in early 2020 before pharmaceutical interventions were available on a large population in the United States. The better estimates of COVID-19...
A compartmental model of variant coexistence, dynamics and dominance in infectious diseases: Case for SARS-CoV-2 in Abu Dhabi
March 2026
In recent years, the rapid mutation of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of new variants. Despite advancements in pandemic control, these new variants could pose substantial public health issues....
HIV/AIDS hidden transmission model with HIV testing and contact tracing in an SID community
March 2026
HIV testing and contact tracing facilitate early detection of HIV/AIDS infections for interrupting the hidden transmission. In this study, a susceptible-undiagnosed-diagnosed transmission model with...
Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors
March 2026
Dengue fever is a major global health concern, with Brazil experiencing recurrent and severe outbreaks due to its favorable climate factors, socio-environmental conditions, and increasing human mobility....
An age-structured mathematical model to assess the combined effects of vaccine and non-vaccine interventions on malaria transmission and burden
March 2026
Malaria remains a significant public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where its burden remains a concern despite existing control measures. Recent advances in vaccination, particularly...
Optimal prevention and control strategy of infectious disease: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a modified dynamic model with economic loss
March 2026
The large-scale outbreaks of novel infectious diseases threaten public health, while strict intervention measures might slow down the economic activity. The effective prevention and control measures...
Control of Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and Rocky Mountain spotted fever informed by an in silico tool
December 2025
We explored a compartment “susceptible-infected-recovered” model to prioritize and test the effectiveness of dog- and tick-based interventions against Rocky Mountain spotted fever and its tick vector...
Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies
December 2025
In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols,...
Global stability for a cumulative release Ebola epidemic model from the corpses and infected individuals
December 2025
In this paper, a SVEIRDP epidemic model is proposed to investigate the transmission dynamics of Ebola by cumulative release from the infected individuals and corpses in the form of infinite integrals....
Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study
December 2025
As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, are an important element of pandemic response. The overall impact of case isolation on epidemic...
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022–2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation
December 2025
Mpox remains a signi_cant public health challenge in endemic regions of Africa. Understanding its spatial distribution and identifying key drivers in high-risk countries is critical for guiding e_ective...
