Understanding human mobility patterns under a public health emergency
March 2026
Understanding human mobility changes during epidemics is critical for predicting disease spread and planning interventions. However, capturing fine-scale dynamics is challenging....
Surveillance of infectious diseases spreading on time-varying multiplex networks
March 2026
Surveillance of infectious disease transmission is crucial for early detection and timely intervention. Existing studies mainly focus on static single-layer networks, primarily aiming to identify which...
Associations of ambient temperature and heat waves with risks of hepatitis E in Jiangsu, China (2010–2023): A time-stratified case-crossover study
March 2026
Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes substantial morbidity globally, with frequent outbreaks in low-resource settings due to fecal-oral transmission. Temperature and extreme heat may influence waterborne...
Predicting the burden of co-infections in seasonally driven dynamics of pediatric rotavirus and norovirus
March 2026
Rotavirus and norovirus are principal viral agents of acute gastroenteritis, primarily transmitted through close contact. Although each virus has its own capability to spread the epidemic, rotavirus...
COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) implied by the serology, antibody, testing in New York City
March 2026
This paper estimates COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) in early 2020 before pharmaceutical interventions were available on a large population in the United States. The better estimates of COVID-19...
A compartmental model of variant coexistence, dynamics and dominance in infectious diseases: Case for SARS-CoV-2 in Abu Dhabi
March 2026
In recent years, the rapid mutation of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of new variants. Despite advancements in pandemic control, these new variants could pose substantial public health issues....
HIV/AIDS hidden transmission model with HIV testing and contact tracing in an SID community
March 2026
HIV testing and contact tracing facilitate early detection of HIV/AIDS infections for interrupting the hidden transmission. In this study, a susceptible-undiagnosed-diagnosed transmission model with...
Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors
March 2026
Dengue fever is a major global health concern, with Brazil experiencing recurrent and severe outbreaks due to its favorable climate factors, socio-environmental conditions, and increasing human mobility....
An age-structured mathematical model to assess the combined effects of vaccine and non-vaccine interventions on malaria transmission and burden
March 2026
Malaria remains a significant public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where its burden remains a concern despite existing control measures. Recent advances in vaccination, particularly...
Optimal prevention and control strategy of infectious disease: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a modified dynamic model with economic loss
March 2026
The large-scale outbreaks of novel infectious diseases threaten public health, while strict intervention measures might slow down the economic activity. The effective prevention and control measures...
Stage specific immune responses to schistosomes may explain conflicting results in malaria-schistosome coinfection studies
December 2025
Malaria and schistosomiasis are two of the most clinically important human parasitic diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality, collectively causing approximately 800,000 deaths annually. Coinfection...
Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB
December 2025
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this...
Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models
December 2025
This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends....
Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City
December 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted heterogeneities in human behavior and attitudes of individuals with respect to adherence or lack thereof to public health-mandated intervention...
Control of Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and Rocky Mountain spotted fever informed by an in silico tool
December 2025
We explored a compartment “susceptible-infected-recovered” model to prioritize and test the effectiveness of dog- and tick-based interventions against Rocky Mountain spotted fever and its tick vector...
Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies
December 2025
In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols,...
Global stability for a cumulative release Ebola epidemic model from the corpses and infected individuals
December 2025
In this paper, a SVEIRDP epidemic model is proposed to investigate the transmission dynamics of Ebola by cumulative release from the infected individuals and corpses in the form of infinite integrals....
A spatiotemporal transmission simulator for respiratory infectious diseases and its application to COVID-19
December 2025
The present study introduces a transmission dynamic simulator for respiratory infectious diseases by incorporating human movement data into a spatiotemporal transmission model. The model spatially divides...
Should public health policy exempt cases with low viral load from isolation during an epidemic?: a modelling study
December 2025
As demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation, are an important element of pandemic response. The overall impact of case isolation on epidemic...
A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies
December 2025
The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates...
Reinforcement learning-based event-driven optimal prevention control strategy for citrus huanglongbing model
December 2025
Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) is an infectious disease transmitted by Asian citrus psyllids (ACP), which leads to serious economic losses in the citrus industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate...
A Bayesian modelling framework with model comparison for epidemics with super-spreading
December 2025
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading...
Impact of asymptomatic infections on malaria transmission dynamics
December 2025
A considerable proportion of malaria infections are asymptomatic, serving as reservoirs that sustain transmission. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to examine the spread of malaria...
Contributions of the elderly to the transmission of HIV/AIDS in China
December 2025
In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases shows an upward trend in China, particularly among the elderly, exerting severe effects on public health and social economy. This paper proposes an HIV/AIDS...
Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022–2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation
December 2025
Mpox remains a signi_cant public health challenge in endemic regions of Africa. Understanding its spatial distribution and identifying key drivers in high-risk countries is critical for guiding e_ective...
