Impact of the first booster vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Chile
June 2026
The present paper proposes a novel methodology for evaluating the impact of a vaccination plan against a transmissible disease. The methodology has two distinct stages. The initial stage comprises a...
Dengue fever prediction based on meteorological features and deep learning models
June 2026
The dengue fever epidemic is one of the health priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO), and accurately predicting its epidemiological trends is crucial. Multi source geographic data such as...
Determining disease attributes from epidemic trajectories
June 2026
Effective public health decisions require early reliable inference of infectious disease properties. In this paper we assess the ability to infer infectious disease attributes from population-level...
Epidemiological model calibration via graybox Bayesian optimization
June 2026
In this study, we focus on developing efficient calibration methods via Bayesian decision-making for the family of compartmental epidemiological models. The existing calibration methods usually assume...
Multi-event dynamic capture-recapture model for big data: Estimating undetected COVID-19 cases in British Columbia, Canada
June 2026
The accurate quantification of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on both public health and the economy is essential for informed policy-making. However, the true scope of the pandemic remains challenging...
Systematic prediction of spatiotemporal transmission of potential respiratory pandemics in China
June 2026
Population movement significantly influences respiratory disease transmission; however, movement restrictions can impose substantial societal burdens. To understand spatiotemporal characteristic of...
A coupled disease-misinformation model of measles transmission in the Canadian context
June 2026
Infectious disease dynamics are increasingly shaped not only by biological processes but also by the spread of misinformation. This study presents a coupled disease-misinformation model, SMIRK, to evaluate...
A spatio-temporal causal network for multi-scale analysis of infectious respiratory diseases transmission
June 2026
Understanding the spatio-temporal transmission characteristics of infectious respiratory diseases is crucial for effective control. However, most existing studies rely on correlation analysis, which...
Modeling the transmission dynamics and control strategies during the 2017 diphtheria outbreak in Jakarta, Indonesia
March 2026
Diphtheria has resurged globally, including in Indonesia, despite widespread vaccination since the 1970s. Knowledge gaps persist in understanding contemporary transmission drivers and effective outbreak...
Quantifying mpox transmission and control: A regional analysis of vaccination strategies in East Africa
March 2026
Africa is home to the endemic mpox disease, especially in the tropical rain-forest regions of Central and West Africa. Although it is mostly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, reports of...
Comparing virus incubation time in SIRC models: Deterministic versus stochastic approaches
March 2026
Time delays are a fundamental feature in modeling stochastic epidemic systems, as they capture the incubation period and other physiological lags inherent in disease transmission. In this work, we investigate...
Modelling, analysis and optimal control of Zika virus transmission dynamics based on sterile insect technique
March 2026
The sterile insect technique (SIT) has emerged as a promising tool for suppressing mosquito-borne diseases. This study develops a Zika virus transmission model integrating SIT, emphasizing both mosquito-borne...
A framework using large time series model for early warning of infectious diseases
March 2026
Infectious diseases controlling system is indispensable for weaken the damage to the people's life and property security caused by infectious diseases. An effective infectious diseases controlling system...
Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model
March 2026
China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary...
Application of the type and target reproduction numbers to the evaluation of the influence of each prefecture in Japan on the disease spread
March 2026
In this study, by applying population mobility data in July, August and September of 2019–2023 in Japan to a multigroup epidemic model, we calculate the type and target reproduction numbers of each...
Vaccination games of boundedly rational parents toward new childhood immunization
March 2026
Infectious diseases harm societies through disease-induced morbidity, mortality, loss of productivity, and inequality. Thus, controlling and preventing them is critical for public health and societal...
A multi-method study evaluating the inference of compartmental model parameters from a generative agent-based model
March 2026
Calibrating process models such as compartmental SIR Models to real data can be performed using either optimization or Bayesian techniques. To accurately assess the performance of these methods, synthetic...
Understanding human mobility patterns under a public health emergency
March 2026
Understanding human mobility changes during epidemics is critical for predicting disease spread and planning interventions. However, capturing fine-scale dynamics is challenging....
Surveillance of infectious diseases spreading on time-varying multiplex networks
March 2026
Surveillance of infectious disease transmission is crucial for early detection and timely intervention. Existing studies mainly focus on static single-layer networks, primarily aiming to identify which...
Predicting the burden of co-infections in seasonally driven dynamics of pediatric rotavirus and norovirus
March 2026
Rotavirus and norovirus are principal viral agents of acute gastroenteritis, primarily transmitted through close contact. Although each virus has its own capability to spread the epidemic, rotavirus...
COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) implied by the serology, antibody, testing in New York City
March 2026
This paper estimates COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) in early 2020 before pharmaceutical interventions were available on a large population in the United States. The better estimates of COVID-19...
A compartmental model of variant coexistence, dynamics and dominance in infectious diseases: Case for SARS-CoV-2 in Abu Dhabi
March 2026
In recent years, the rapid mutation of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the emergence of new variants. Despite advancements in pandemic control, these new variants could pose substantial public health issues....
Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors
March 2026
Dengue fever is a major global health concern, with Brazil experiencing recurrent and severe outbreaks due to its favorable climate factors, socio-environmental conditions, and increasing human mobility....
Optimal prevention and control strategy of infectious disease: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a modified dynamic model with economic loss
March 2026
The large-scale outbreaks of novel infectious diseases threaten public health, while strict intervention measures might slow down the economic activity. The effective prevention and control measures...
