HCV transmission model with protection awareness in an SEACTR community
June 2025
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a bloodborne virus that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from a mild illness to liver cirrhosis and cancer. As one of the major infectious diseases...
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Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling
June 2025
Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, along with the concurrent circulation of other arboviruses, presents a great public health challenge, reminding the utilization of mathematical modelling as a crucial tool...
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State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Dynamic regression and covariance analysis
June 2025
We analyze COVID-19 surveillance data from Ontario, Canada, using state-space modelling techniques to address key challenges in understanding disease transmission dynamics. The study applies component...
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A mechanistic modeling approach to assessing the sensitivity of outcomes of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions to local contexts and intervention factors
June 2025
Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young children. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) improvements have historically been responsible for major public health gains,...
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Interventions for SARS-CoV-2 prevention among Jailed adults: A network-based modeling analysis
June 2025
Airborne pathogens present challenges in settings like jails or prisons with a high density of contacts. The state of Georgia has the highest percentage of its citizens under correctional supervision...
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Rapid aging of influenza epidemics in China from 2005/06 to 2016/17: A population-based study
June 2025
China is an aging society, and the older population is at a higher risk of influenza infection and influenza-related mortality. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the aging of influenza epidemics,...
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Diphtheria transmission dynamics – Unveiling generation time and reproduction numbers from the 2022–2023 outbreak in Kano state, Nigeria
June 2025
Diphtheria, caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, remains a serious public health threat in areas with low vaccination coverage, despite global declines due to widespread immunization and improved...
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Data fitting and optimal control strategies for HBV acute patient cases in the United States
June 2025
Infection with Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) has been a serious public health issue worldwide. It caused more than one million fatalities per year. The mathematical modelling of the disease allows better...
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A graph-theoretic framework for integrating mobility data into mathematical epidemic models
June 2025
Advances in modeling the spread of infectious diseases have allowed modellers to relax the homogeneous mixing assumption of traditional compartmental models. The recently introduced synthetic network...
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Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target
June 2025
The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether...
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Prediction of monthly occurrence number of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, China, based on SARIMA and BPNN models
June 2025
Scrub typhus poses a serious public health risk globally. Forecasting the occurrence of the disease is essential for policymakers to develop prevention and control strategies. This study investigated...
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The Impact of Information Dissemination and Behavioural Responses on Epidemic Dynamics: A Multi-Layer Network Analysis
Available online 16 April 2025
Network models adeptly capture heterogeneities in individual interactions, making them well-suited for describing a wide range of real-world and virtual connections, including information diffusion,...
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Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting
Available online 1 April 2025
Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on 20th February 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used to study...
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Flexible regression model for predicting the dissemination of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus under variable climatic conditions
March 2025
Greening, or Huanglongbing (HLB), poses a severe threat to global citrus cultivation, affecting various citrus species and compromising fruit production. Primarily transmitted by psyllids during phloem...
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Nonlinear mixed models and related approaches in infectious disease modeling: A systematic and critical review
March 2025
The level of surveillance and preparedness against epidemics varies across countries, resulting in different responses to outbreaks. When conducting an in-depth analysis of microinfection dynamics,...
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Gradient boosting: A computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for fitting large Bayesian spatio-temporal binomial regression models
March 2025
Disease forecasting and surveillance often involve fitting models to a tremendous volume of historical testing data collected over space and time. Bayesian spatio-temporal regression models fit with...
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Modelling and investigating memory immune responses in infectious disease. Application to influenza a virus and sars-cov-2 reinfections
March 2025
Understanding effector and memory immune responses against influenza A virus (IAV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and re-infections is extremely important,...
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Dynamics of an SVEIR transmission model with protection awareness and two strains
March 2025
As of May 2024, the main strains of COVID-19 caused hundreds of millions of infection cases and millions of deaths worldwide. In this study, we consider the COVID-19 epidemics with the main strains...
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Stronger binding affinities of gp120/CD4 in Catarrhini provide insights into HIV/host interactions
March 2025
Human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) exploits the viral gp120 protein and host CD4/CCR5 receptors for the pandemic infection to humans. The host co-receptors of not only humans but also several primates...
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Network-based virus dynamic simulation: Evaluating the fomite disinfection effectiveness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in indoor environment
March 2025
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is involved in aerosol particles and droplets excreted from a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient. Such aerosol particles or droplets...
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Conditional logistic individual-level models of spatial infectious disease dynamics
March 2025
Here, we introduce a novel framework for modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of disease spread known as conditional logistic individual-level models (CL-ILM's). This framework alleviates much of the...
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Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables
March 2025
Despite the implementation of various initiatives, dengue remains a significant public health concern in Malaysia. Given that dengue has no specific treatment, dengue prediction remains a useful early...
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Comparative assessment of airborne infection risk tools in enclosed spaces: Implications for disease control
March 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted the importance of understanding transmission modes and implementing effective mitigation strategies. Recognizing airborne transmission as a primary...
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Deep learning model meets community-based surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis
March 2025
Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) case surveillance is pivotal for the early detection of potential poliovirus, particularly in endemic countries such as Ethiopia. The community-based surveillance system...
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