From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model
Available online 30 June 2022
There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments....
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Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis: Insights from fluorography data
Available online 30 June 2022
Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis: unknown are both the rates of progression and the model “scheme”. The “parallel” scheme assumes that...
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Switched forced SEIRDV compartmental models to monitor COVID-19 spread and immunization in Italy
March 2022
This paper presents a new hybrid compartmental model for studying the COVID-19 epidemic evolution in Italy since the beginning of the vaccination campaign started on 2020/12/27 and shows forecasts of...
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Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
March 2022
This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, may lead to a catastrophic...
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Agent-based modeling of COVID-19 outbreaks for New York state and UK: Parameter identification algorithm
March 2022
This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA) and the UK. Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus...
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A COVID-19 mathematical model of at-risk populations with non-pharmaceutical preventive measures: The case of Brazil and South Africa
March 2022
This work examines a mathematical model of COVID-19 among two subgroups: low-risk and high-risk populations with two preventive measures; non-pharmaceutical interventions including wearing masks, maintaining...
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Vaccine efficacy and SARS-CoV-2 control in California and U.S. during the session 2020–2026: A modeling study
March 2022
Besides maintaining health precautions, vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2, though no clinically proved 100% effective vaccine has been developed till date. At this stage, to withhold...
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Optimal control analysis of hepatocytic-erythrocytic dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria
March 2022
This paper presents an in-host malaria model subject to anti-malarial drug treatment and malaria vaccine antigens combinations. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is applied to establish optimal control...
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Economic evaluations of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in six Western Pacific and South East Asian countries and regions: A modeling study
March 2022
The present study aimed to document the economic profiles of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the evidence on which is...
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The allometric propagation of COVID-19 is explained by human travel
March 2022
We analyzed the number of cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 as a function of time in countries around the World. We tracked the increase in cases from the onset of the pandemic in each region for...
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Inverse problem for adaptive SIR model: Application to COVID-19 in Latin America
March 2022
This work presents a method for solving an Adaptive Susceptible-Infected-Removed (A-SIR) epidemic model with time-dependent transmission and removal rates. Available COVID-19 data as of March 2021 are...
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Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of an age-structured emerging infectious disease model
March 2022
Emerging infectious diseases are one of the global public health problems which may lead to widespread epidemics and potentially life-threatening infection. Integrated vaccination and physical distancing...
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Stochastic modeling, analysis, and simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic with explicit behavioral changes in Bogotá: A case study
March 2022
In this paper, a stochastic epidemiological model is presented as an extension of a compartmental SEIR model with random perturbations to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of...
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Modelling policy combinations of vaccination and transmission suppression of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
March 2022
COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil required a phased program, with priorities for age groups, health workers, and vulnerable people. Social distancing and isolation interventions have been essential to...
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The efficacy of deep learning based LSTM model in forecasting the outbreak of contagious diseases
March 2022
The coronavirus disease that outbreak in 2019 has caused various health issues. According to the WHO, the first positive case was detected in Bangladesh on 7th March 2020, but while writing this paper...
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Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study
March 2022
We couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a partly vaccinated population. We use this model to estimate...
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Modeling the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York and San Francisco using a pairwise network model
March 2022
Classical epidemiological models assume mass action. However, this assumption is violated when interactions are not random. With the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and resulting shelter in place social distancing...
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A Markov based model to estimate the number of syphilis cases among floating population
March 2022
Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease that spreads widely around the world, infecting tens of millions of people every year. In China, syphilis not only causes more than 1 million infections every...
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Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers
March 2022
In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV...
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Feature importance: Opening a soil-transmitted helminth machine learning model via SHAP
March 2022
In the field of landscape epidemiology, the contribution of machine learning (ML) to modeling of epidemiological risk scenarios presents itself as a good alternative. This study aims to break with the...
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Incorporation of near-real-time hospital occupancy data to improve hospitalization forecast accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic
March 2022
Public health decision makers rely on hospitalization forecasts to inform COVID-19 pandemic planning and resource allocation. Hospitalization forecasts are most relevant when they are accurate, made...
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Optimizing COVID-19 vaccination programs during vaccine shortages
March 2022
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine shortages occur due to various types of constraints, including interruptions in production/supply, higher-than-expected demands, and a lack of resources...
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Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
2021
Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies...
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Statistical data driven approach of COVID-19 in Ecuador: R0 and Rt estimation via new method
2021
The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic....
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Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios
2021
Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted...
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