How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
A predictive model for rapid assessment of protective efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants
September 2026
An effective predictive model of protection would be very helpful to provide a timely and reliable evaluation of the vaccine induced protection against corresponding to rapidly emerging evolving SARS-CoV-2...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Mathematical modeling for analyzing mass drug administration operational factors for efficient malaria incidence reduction in southern Senegal
September 2026
Mass drug administration (MDA) has emerged as a promising strategy for reducing malaria incidence in many African countries. A pilot study of MDA in the Tambacounda health district in southeastern Senegal...
Modeling the Impact of Malaria Chemoprevention with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine on the spread of Plasmodium falciparum dhps A581G mutation
September 2026
Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is a key antimalarial used in chemoprevention strategies, including intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); intermittent preventive treatment in infants...
Dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model with deterministic/stochastic migration and distributed delays
September 2026
We study the global dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model that integrates spatial migration, Erlang-distributed delays, and environmental stochasticity. The two patches are coupled by migration whose...
Spatial point pattern analysis of environmental effects on valley fever intensity in Phoenix, Arizona
September 2026
Using a novel Arizona Medicaid data set, we model Valley fever (VF) cases in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area as a spatial point process during six month intervals between 2013 and 2023. We estimate the...
The coupling process of awareness and disease under the influence of synergistic-hedging effect of information resources
September 2026
Information serves as a crucial yet invisible resources and can be categorized into two types: positive information resources and negative information resources. Different types of information resources...
Dynamic properties of an SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model via stochastic PINNs
September 2026
This paper introduces a novel stochastic SEIRV model for investigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic using stochastic physics-informed neural networks (S-PINNs). We first prove the global positivity...
Dynamic modelling and analysis of human brucellosis on age heterogeneity in Jinzhou, China
September 2026
Since brucellosis causes harms and losses to sheep and human populations in the cities of Northern and Northwest China, we establish a cross-species brucellosis model with age-structure and bilinear...
Global, regional, and national economic value of reducing amenable tuberculosis mortality
September 2026
Progress in reducing Tuberculosis (TB) mortality falls short of one-third of the End TB Strategy target, partly due to a high proportion of amenable deaths, most of which occur among individuals aged...
Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions — United States, 2022–2025
September 2026
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates influenza forecasting efforts with approximately 30 academic and industry teams and combines their short-term, weekly forecasts...
Long-run logistics-based control of non-immunizing infectious diseases
September 2026
Non-immunizing infectious diseases cannot be eradicated and therefore generate persistent health and intervention costs over time. Steering such diseases toward a stable endemic equilibrium is a natural...
Outfitting the quest for spatial spread of infections: A review of mobility datasets for population health modelling
September 2026
Understanding the spatial dynamics of infectious disease spread is essential for modeling population health. A key component in such modeling is human mobility data, which informs how infections propagate...
Dynamical analysis of the SVEIR-M epidemic model with age structure under media coverage
June 2026
With the frequent emergence and spread of new infectious diseases, poses severe threats to public health, and the government often relies on non-pharmaceutical interventions to cope. Meanwhile, the...
Impact of age-structured migration on malaria burden: A modelling-empirical analysis in sub-Saharan Africa
June 2026
Malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa is strongly influenced by seasonal climatic variations and human mobility, particularly occupation-driven rural-to-urban migration. These dynamics contribute...
Modeling the seasonal and climate-dependent dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: Implications for transmission and Control
June 2026
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic, zoonotic neglected tropical disease that remains a persistent public health challenge in endemic regions of Brazil, including the state of Maranhão. Transmission...
Age-structured next generation matrix and R0 calculation for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP)
June 2026
Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), is known for its age-specific susceptibility, lifelong infection, varied shedding patterns, low diagnostic...
Absolute humidity drives seasonal influenza A transmission in Hong Kong through social contact modulation: Evidence from compartmental modeling
June 2026
Prior studies propose a U-shaped humidity-influenza relationship, yet the interplay between humidity-driven contact behaviors and transmission dynamics remains unclear....
Impact of the first booster vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in Chile
June 2026
The present paper proposes a novel methodology for evaluating the impact of a vaccination plan against a transmissible disease. The methodology has two distinct stages. The initial stage comprises a...
Multi-event dynamic capture-recapture model for big data: Estimating undetected COVID-19 cases in British Columbia, Canada
June 2026
The accurate quantification of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on both public health and the economy is essential for informed policy-making. However, the true scope of the pandemic remains challenging...
A spatio-temporal causal network for multi-scale analysis of infectious respiratory diseases transmission
June 2026
Understanding the spatio-temporal transmission characteristics of infectious respiratory diseases is crucial for effective control. However, most existing studies rely on correlation analysis, which...
Systematic prediction of spatiotemporal transmission of potential respiratory pandemics in China
June 2026
Population movement significantly influences respiratory disease transmission; however, movement restrictions can impose substantial societal burdens. To understand spatiotemporal characteristic of...
