A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19
December 2024
Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...
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Optimal vaccination strategies on networks and in metropolitan areas
December 2024
This study presents a mathematical model for optimal vaccination strategies in interconnected metropolitan areas, considering commuting patterns. It is a compartmental model with a vaccination rate...
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A parsimonious Bayesian predictive model for forecasting new reported cases of West Nile disease
December 2024
Upon researching predictive models related to West Nile virus disease, it is discovered that there are numerous parameters and extensive information in most models, thus contributing to unnecessary...
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A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and time-invariant parameters
December 2024
We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. In this manuscript, we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework...
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A deterministic model for homologous antibody dependant enhancement on influenza infection
December 2024
Antibody dependant enhancement refers that viral infectivity was unexpectedly enhanced at low antibody concentration compared to when antibodies were absent, such as Dengue, Zika and influenza virus....
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A novel comparison framework for epidemiological strategies applied to age-based restrictions versus horizontal lockdowns
December 2024
During an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers are faced with the decision of implementing effective, yet socioeconomically costly intervention strategies, such as school and workplace...
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Effect of vaccinations and school restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 in different age groups in Germany
December 2024
With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, various non-pharmaceutical interventions were adopted to control virus transmission, including school closures. Subsequently, the introduction of vaccines mitigated...
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Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen
December 2024
This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2...
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Epidemiological impact of revoking mask-wearing recommendation on COVID-19 transmission in Tokyo, Japan
December 2024
Despite the global implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures, the disease continues to maintain transmission. Although mask wearing became one of the key measures for preventing the transmission...
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Stronger Binding Affinities of gp120/CD4 in Catarrhini Provide Insights into HIV/Host Interactions
Available online 19 October 2024
Human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) exploits the viral gp120 protein and host CD4/CCR5 receptors for the pandemic infection to humans. The host co-receptors of not only humans but also several primates...
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Chronic disease patients have fewer social contacts: A pilot survey with implications for transmission dynamics
September 2024
Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the most important cause of death in the world. The socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st century....
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Predicting influenza-like illness trends based on sentinel surveillance data in China from 2011 to 2019: A modelling and comparative study1
September 2024
Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with a significant global disease burden. Additionally, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)...
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Ebola virus disease model with a nonlinear incidence rate and density-dependent treatment
September 2024
This paper studies an Ebola epidemic model with an exponential nonlinear incidence function that considers the efficacy and the behaviour change. The current model also incorporates a new density-dependent...
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Analysis of a diffusive two-strain malaria model with the carrying capacity of the environment for mosquitoes
September 2024
We propose a malaria model involving the sensitive and resistant strains, which is described by reaction-diffusion equations. The model reflects the scenario that the vector and host populations disperse...
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Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases
September 2024
Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the world, causing major public health problems in developing countries. The rate of TB incidence in Iran was estimated to be 13...
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Parameter identifiability of a within-host SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model
September 2024
Parameter identification involves the estimation of undisclosed parameters within a system based on observed data and mathematical models. In this investigation, we employ DAISY to meticulously examine...
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Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution
September 2024
The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale...
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An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave
September 2024
The structure of age groups and social contacts of the total population influenced infection scales and hospital-bed requirements, especially influenced severe infections and deaths during the global...
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Integrating immunoinformatics and computational epitope prediction for a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus
September 2024
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine...
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Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.
September 2024
Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the...
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Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan
September 2024
Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...
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Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations
September 2024
We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection...
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Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2
September 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, disproportionately affected certain segments of society, particularly the elderly population (which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms...
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Origins of the problematic E in SEIR epidemic models
September 2024
During the COVID-19 pandemic, over one thousand papers were published on “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed” (SEIR) epidemic computational models. The English word “exposed” in its vernacular and...
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