Mosquito salivary protein antibodies as efficient endpoints for vector control trials: A mechanistic comparison with clinical and entomological outcomes
December 2026
Evaluating vector control interventions through randomized trials is often challenging because clinical endpoints, such as infection incidence, are rare and heterogeneous even areas at high risk, resulting...
Analysis and simulation for a two-sex transmission model of HPV infection in Xinjiang of China
December 2026
This study develops a two-sex deterministic compartmental model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and the subsequent progression to cervical cancer within a heterosexual...
A novel mathematical modeling and optimal control analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating double-dose vaccination strategies: Insights from the recent outbreak
December 2026
Monkeypox (Mpox) has re-emerged as a serious global public health concern due to its potential human-to-human transmission and persistence in the environment. This study develops a new deterministic...
Simulation and prediction of human brucellosis epidemic trends in Changji city
December 2026
The number of new human brucellosis cases has shown a periodic upward trend in Changji city, Xinjiang. It is essential to estimate the transmission intensity of brucellosis and put forward effective...
Dynamics and optimal control of a weighted-network dengue model with seasonal transmission
December 2026
In this paper, we introduce a novel dengue model on a weighted network to investigate the roles of human mobility, seasonal temperature shifts, and spatial heterogeneity. First, the positivity, global...
Infection dynamics for fluctuating infection or removal rates regarding the number of infected and susceptible individuals
December 2026
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread...
Resolving parameter uncertainty in SIR models through population-level serological surveillance: A synthetic study
December 2026
Epidemic models face a critical challenge: surveillance systems capture only a fraction of infections (often <10%). We reveal two fundamental problems. First, when models ignore underdetection entirely—treating...
Expanding optimization ensemble model methods for forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.
December 2026
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic sees significant variability in its evolution. Accurate forecasts of future influenza cases are important for planning public health responses. The United...
Dynamics of infectious disease spread between transportation hubs and surrounding communities
December 2026
Urban transit systems, particularly those in major metropolitan areas, are becoming increasingly interconnected, making it essential to better understand passenger mobility and its implications for...
Memory mechanisms for behavioural change in Bayesian individual-level spatial epidemic models
December 2026
Accurate modelling of infectious disease transmission often requires capturing how individuals adjust their behaviours in response to evolving epidemic conditions. While recently developed behavioural...
Modeling two-strain competition with reinfection: Mathematical analyses and epidemiological implications
December 2026
We propose a new epidemic model for the interactions between two different strains associated with the same pathogen. Our focus is how the competition between multiple strains and the impact of reinfection...
Rapid assessment of local disease control measures against the Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia in late 2025
December 2026
In November 2025, Marburg virus caused the first outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia. By December 15, a total of 14 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, including 9 deaths, corresponding...
Quantitative risk assessment of avian influenza: A scoping review
December 2026
Avian influenza virus (AIV) continues to pose serious risks to animal and public health. Understanding its spread requires integrating ecological, agricultural, and human information. Quantitative models...
When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes
December 2026
Wildlife aggregate for many reasons (e.g. reproduction, feeding) and at times these aggregations can be extreme, with host densities increasing several orders of magnitude. While the impact of seasonality...
Modeling and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry using network disease dynamics
December 2026
In light of the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI outbreak in the U.S., which affects millions of commercial and backyard flocks, disrupts egg and meat production, and causes significant economic losses, it is...
Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of HIV/AIDS in Africa: A retrospective analysis of epidemiological trends
December 2026
Africa bears the highest global burden of HIV, with marked regional inequalities in prevalence, incidence and clinical outcomes. Mapping the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic is essential...
Comparing methods to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers using genomic and epidemiological data
December 2026
Estimating the time-varying reproduction number Rt during an epidemic is important. Rt indicates whether an epidemic is growing or declining and can aid in assessing the impact of interventions. Recent...
A Climate-Driven Mechanistic Transmission Model to Characterize Dengue Epidemiology in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Available online 28 October 2026
Dengue is a major public health concern in tropical and sub-tropical areas of the world. Dengue virus is transmitted to humans primarily by female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and its epidemiology is heavily...
Spatiotemporal dynamics in a diffusive Leslie–Gower model: Turing instability and bifurcations with prey Allee effect and predator fear effect
Available online 26 October 2026
This paper deals with a diffusive Leslie–Gower model with a strong Allee effect on the prey and a fear effect on the predator. We first consider the stability of positive constant solutions of the system...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions — United States, 2022–2025
September 2026
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates influenza forecasting efforts with approximately 30 academic and industry teams and combines their short-term, weekly forecasts...
