Dynamic predicting hepatitis B surface antigen decline rate during treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B
September 2025
Prediction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline rates during treatment is crucial for achieving a higher proportion of functional cure outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB),...
Share article
Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia
September 2025
Accurate identification of spatial patterns and risk factors of disease occurrence is crucial for public health interventions. However, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) poses challenges in disease...
Share article
Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study
September 2025
Contact tracing has been a key tool to contain the spread of diseases and was widely used by countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing has been...
Share article
Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic
September 2025
Contact tracing is an important public health measure to control disease transmission. However, it is difficult to assess contact tracing during the exponential stage of an epidemic with multiple control...
Share article
Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
June 2025
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...
Share article
Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of a local-nonlocal dispersal SIR epidemic model with spatial heterogeneity
June 2025
This research investigates a novel approach to modeling an SIR epidemic in a heterogeneous environment by imposing certain restrictions on population mobility. Our study reveals the influence of partially...
Share article
Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
Share article
Can the prevalence of one STI serve as a predictor for another? A mathematical modeling analysis
June 2025
We aimed to understand to what extent knowledge of the prevalence of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) can predict the prevalence of another STI, with application for men who have sex with men...
Share article
Estimating cumulative infection rate of COVID-19 after adjusting the dynamic zero-COVID policy in China
June 2025
At the end of 2022, China adjusted its coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control strategy. How this adjustment affected the cumulative infection rate is debated, and how second booster...
Share article
Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China
June 2025
Social contact patterns significantly influence the transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous surveys have quantified human social contact patterns, yielding heterogeneous results across...
Share article
Treatment failure and the threshold of disease extinction
June 2025
Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this...
Share article
Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: A comparative analysis across pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 eras
June 2025
This paper presents an investigation into the spatio-temporal dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) across the diverse health regions of Brazil from 2016 to 2024. Leveraging extensive...
Share article
A modelling approach to characterise the interaction between behavioral response and epidemics: A study based on COVID-19
June 2025
During epidemic outbreaks, human behavior is highly influential on the disease transmission and hence affects the course, duration and outcome of the epidemics. In order to examine the feedback effect...
Share article
Lockdown policy in pandemics: Enforcement, adherence, and effectiveness in the case of COVID-19
June 2025
Share article
COVID-19 dynamic modeling of immune variability and multistage vaccination strategies: A case study in Malaysia
June 2025
Hybrid-immune and immunodeficient individuals have been identified by the World Health Organization as two vulnerable groups in the context of COVID-19, but their distinct characteristics remain underexplored....
Share article
Role of limited medical resources in an epidemic model with media report and general birth rate
June 2025
This paper formulates an SEIRSHM epidemic model with general birth rate, media report and limited medical resources. Firstly, the well-posedness of the solutions and the extinction of the disease are...
Share article
State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Dynamic regression and covariance analysis
June 2025
We analyze COVID-19 surveillance data from Ontario, Canada, using state-space modelling techniques to address key challenges in understanding disease transmission dynamics. The study applies component...
Share article
A mechanistic modeling approach to assessing the sensitivity of outcomes of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions to local contexts and intervention factors
June 2025
Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young children. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) improvements have historically been responsible for major public health gains,...
Share article
Interventions for SARS-CoV-2 prevention among Jailed adults: A network-based modeling analysis
June 2025
Airborne pathogens present challenges in settings like jails or prisons with a high density of contacts. The state of Georgia has the highest percentage of its citizens under correctional supervision...
Share article
Diphtheria transmission dynamics – Unveiling generation time and reproduction numbers from the 2022–2023 outbreak in Kano state, Nigeria
June 2025
Diphtheria, caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, remains a serious public health threat in areas with low vaccination coverage, despite global declines due to widespread immunization and improved...
Share article
Data fitting and optimal control strategies for HBV acute patient cases in the United States
June 2025
Infection with Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) has been a serious public health issue worldwide. It caused more than one million fatalities per year. The mathematical modelling of the disease allows better...
Share article
A graph-theoretic framework for integrating mobility data into mathematical epidemic models
June 2025
Advances in modeling the spread of infectious diseases have allowed modellers to relax the homogeneous mixing assumption of traditional compartmental models. The recently introduced synthetic network...
Share article
Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target
June 2025
The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether...
Share article
Prediction of monthly occurrence number of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, China, based on SARIMA and BPNN models
June 2025
Scrub typhus poses a serious public health risk globally. Forecasting the occurrence of the disease is essential for policymakers to develop prevention and control strategies. This study investigated...
Share article
