Optimal therapy for HIV infection containment and virions inhibition
March 2024
Prevention and early diagnosis are the best and most effective ways for defeating HIV. There is still no vaccine, but treatments with antiretroviral drugs are now available which, in many cases, allow...
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The importance of increasing primary vaccinations against COVID-19 in Europe
March 2024
In the European Union, mass vaccination against COVID-19 staved off the strict restrictions that had characterized early epidemic response. Now, vaccination campaigns are focusing on booster doses,...
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Analysis of the effect of PCR testing and antigen testing on controlling the transmission for Omicron based on different scenarios
December 2023
After the policy adjustment, China no longer carries out COVID-19 PCR testing for all people, and antigen testing has become the main way to detect and manage infectious sources. We developed a dynamic...
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Bayesian modeling of dynamic behavioral change during an epidemic
December 2023
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change...
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Hypothesis testing of Poisson rates in COVID-19 offspring distributions
December 2023
In the present study, we undertake the task of hypothesis testing in the context of Poisson-distributed data. The primary objective of our investigation is to ascertain whether two distinct sets of...
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Estimating the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) by using particle filter
December 2023
Monitoring the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requires accurate estimation of the effective reproduction number (Rt). However, existing methods for calculating Rt may yield biased...
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Mathematical analysis of pulse vaccination in controlling the dynamics of measles transmission
December 2023
Although the incidence of measles has been significantly reduced through vaccination, it remains an important public health problem. In this paper, a measles model with pulse vaccination is formulated...
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COVID-19 transmission driven by age-group mathematical model in Shijiazhuang City of China
December 2023
A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Herein, we investigated the...
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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission dynamics in humans with mobility and control states
December 2023
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria...
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Evaluation of vaccine rollout strategies for emerging infectious diseases: A model-based approach including protection attitudes
December 2023
Vaccine allocation strategies become crucial during vaccine shortages, especially in the face of potential outbreaks of new infectious diseases, as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. To address...
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Estimating effective reproduction number revisited
December 2023
Accurately estimating the effective reproduction number is crucial for characterizing the transmissibility of infectious diseases to optimize interventions and responses during epidemic outbreaks. In...
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The impact of EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province, China: A negative control study
December 2023
To estimate the potential causal impact of Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program on the reduction of EV71-infected hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang Province....
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High-dimensional supervised classification in a context of non-independence of observations to identify the determining SNPs in a phenotype
December 2023
This work addresses the problem of supervised classification for highly correlated high-dimensional data describing non-independent observations to identify SNPs related to a phenotype. We use a general...
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Multidimensional dynamic prediction model for hospitalized patients with the omicron variant in China
December 2023
To establish dynamic prediction models by machine learning using daily multidimensional data for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients....
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Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays
December 2023
COVID-19 has posed formidable challenges as a significant global health crisis. Its complexity stems from factors like viral contagiousness, population density, social behaviors, governmental regulations,...
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The spatiotemporal analysis of the population migration network in China, 2021
December 2023
Population migration is a critical component of large-scale spatiotemporal models of infectious disease transmission. Identifying the most influential spreaders in networks is vital to controlling and...
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Improving estimates of waning immunity rates in stochastic SIRS models with a hierarchical framework
December 2023
As most disease causing pathogens require transmission from an infectious individual to a susceptible individual, continued persistence of the pathogen within the population requires the replenishment...
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Modeling the impact of changing sexual behaviors with opposite-sex partners and STI testing among women and men ages 15–44 on STI diagnosis rates in the United States 2012–2019
December 2023
To estimate the potential contributions of reported changes in frequency of penile-vaginal sex (PVS), condom use and STI screening to changes in gonorrhea and chlamydial diagnoses from 2012 to 2019...
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Wastewater surveillance provides 10-days forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalizations superior to cases and test positivity: A prediction study
December 2023
The public health response to COVID-19 has shifted to reducing deaths and hospitalizations to prevent overwhelming health systems. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fragments in wastewater are known to correlate...
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An agent-based model with antibody dynamics information in COVID-19 epidemic simulation
December 2023
Accurate prediction of the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 infection is of paramount importance for effective epidemic prevention and control. In order to accomplish this objective,...
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Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand
December 2023
Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to...
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A generalized ODE susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model with potentially periodic behavior
December 2023
Differential equation compartmental models are crucial tools for forecasting and analyzing disease trajectories. Among these models, those dealing with only susceptible and infectious individuals are...
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Transmission matrices used in epidemiologic modelling
Available online 4 December 2023
Mixing matrices are included in infectious disease models to reflect transmission opportunities between population strata. These matrices were originally constructed on the basis of theoretical considerations...
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Dynamics of a two-group model for assessing the impacts of pre-exposure prophylaxis, testing and risk behaviour change on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM population
Available online 20 November 2023
Although much progress has been made in reducing the public health burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), since its emergence in the...
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Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023
Available online 18 November 2023
In this paper, with the method of epidemic dynamics, we assess the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 after the policy adjustment of prevention and control measure in December 2022 in Taiyuan City in...
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