Recent Articles

Open access

ISSN: 2468-0427
CN: 10-1766/R
p-ISSN: 2468-2152

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from...

Share article

Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

The recent mpox outbreak (in 2022–2023) has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease. During this outbreak, sexual contact was believed to be the...

Share article

Confounding amplifies the effect of environmental factors on COVID-19

The global COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted human health and socioeconomic development, posing an enormous public health challenge. Extensive research has been conducted into the relationship...

Share article

Predicting plant disease epidemics using boosted regression trees

Plant epidemics are often associated with weather-related variables. It is difficult to identify weather-related predictors for models predicting plant epidemics. In the article by Shah et al., to predict...

Share article

On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak

We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet available. At that stage, control is often limited to non-medical...

Share article

Modeling and investigating malaria P. Falciparum and P. Vivax infections: Application to Djibouti data

Malaria is an infectious and communicable disease, caused by one or more species of Plasmodium parasites. There are five species of parasites responsible for malaria in humans, of which two, Plasmodium...

Share article

Modeling measles transmission in adults and children: Implications to vaccination for eradication

Despite the availability of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years, presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation. Moreover, measles cases...

Share article

Analysing vaccine efficacy evaluated in phase 3 clinical trials carried out during outbreaks

In this paper we examine several definitions of vaccine efficacy (VE) that we found in the literature, for diseases that express themselves in outbreaks, that is, when the force of infection grows in...

Share article

Gonorrhea cluster detection in Manitoba, Canada: Spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal analysis

In Canada, Gonorrhea infection ranks as the second most prevalent sexually transmitted infection. In 2018, Manitoba reported an incidence rate three times greater than the national average. This study...

Share article

Schistosomiasis transmission in Zimbabwe: Modelling based on machine learning

Zimbabwe, located in Southern Africa, faces a significant public health challenge due to schistosomiasis. We investigated this issue with emphasis on risk prediction of schistosomiasis for the entire...

Share article

A simple modification to the classical SIR model to estimate the proportion of under-reported infections using case studies in flu and COVID-19

Under-reporting and, thus, uncertainty around the true incidence of health events is common in all public health reporting systems. While the problem of under-reporting is acknowledged in epidemiology,...

Share article

A parsimonious Bayesian predictive model for forecasting new reported cases of West Nile disease

Upon researching predictive models related to West Nile virus disease, it is discovered that there are numerous parameters and extensive information in most models, thus contributing to unnecessary...

Share article

Chronic disease patients have fewer social contacts: A pilot survey with implications for transmission dynamics

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are the most important cause of death in the world. The socio-economic costs associated with NCDs makes it imperative to prevent and control them in the 21st century....

Share article

Predicting influenza-like illness trends based on sentinel surveillance data in China from 2011 to 2019: A modelling and comparative study1

Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease with a significant global disease burden. Additionally, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)...

Share article

Ebola virus disease model with a nonlinear incidence rate and density-dependent treatment

This paper studies an Ebola epidemic model with an exponential nonlinear incidence function that considers the efficacy and the behaviour change. The current model also incorporates a new density-dependent...

Share article

Analysis of a diffusive two-strain malaria model with the carrying capacity of the environment for mosquitoes

We propose a malaria model involving the sensitive and resistant strains, which is described by reaction-diffusion equations. The model reflects the scenario that the vector and host populations disperse...

Share article

Bayesian estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for pulmonary tuberculosis in Iran: A registry-based study from 2018 to 2022 using new smear-positive cases

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases in the world, causing major public health problems in developing countries. The rate of TB incidence in Iran was estimated to be 13...

Share article

Parameter identifiability of a within-host SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model

Parameter identification involves the estimation of undisclosed parameters within a system based on observed data and mathematical models. In this investigation, we employ DAISY to meticulously examine...

Share article

Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution

The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, the small-scale...

Share article

An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave

The structure of age groups and social contacts of the total population influenced infection scales and hospital-bed requirements, especially influenced severe infections and deaths during the global...

Share article

Integrating immunoinformatics and computational epitope prediction for a vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a significant global health threat, especially affecting infants and the elderly. Addressing this, the present study proposes an innovative approach to vaccine...

Share article

Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.

Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the...

Share article

Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan

Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission of COVID-19 continues. It is critical to quantify the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using...

Share article

Epidemicity indices and reproduction numbers from infectious disease data in connected human populations

We focus on distinctive data-driven measures of the fate of ongoing epidemics. The relevance of our pursuit is suggested by recent results proving that the short-term temporal evolution of infection...

Share article

Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks

The basic reproduction number, R0, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R0 from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation...

Share article

Stay Informed

Register your interest and receive email alerts tailored to your needs. Sign up below.