Comparing frequentist and Bayesian methods to identify drivers of pathogen strain invasion: A temporal case study of pertussis in the United States
June 2026
Since the 20th century, it has been widely recognized that the emergence of new pathogens is closely linked to human activities such as global travel and environmental exploitation. In addition, the...
FluAttn: Antigenicity prediction of influenza A/H3N2 through attention-based feature mining
June 2026
The rapid antigenic drift of influenza A/H3N2 compromises the durability of vaccine-induced protection, underscoring the need for accurate antigenic assessment to evaluate vaccine efficacy and guide...
Dynamics and forecasting of an age-structured stochastic SIR model with Lévy perturbations via physics-informed neural networks
June 2026
Understanding and predicting real-world epidemic dynamics has consistently posed a formidable challenge. This study addresses an age-structured stochastic SIR model incorporating a general incidence...
Stochastic dynamics of Chikungunya virus infection model incorporating general incidence rate and immune responses
June 2026
This study investigates a stochastic model of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection that incorporates a general incidence rate along with B-cell and CTL immune responses. Stochasticity is modeled through...
Dynamical analysis of the SVEIR-M epidemic model with age structure under media coverage
June 2026
With the frequent emergence and spread of new infectious diseases, poses severe threats to public health, and the government often relies on non-pharmaceutical interventions to cope. Meanwhile, the...
Modeling the transmission dynamics and control strategies during the 2017 diphtheria outbreak in Jakarta, Indonesia
March 2026
Diphtheria has resurged globally, including in Indonesia, despite widespread vaccination since the 1970s. Knowledge gaps persist in understanding contemporary transmission drivers and effective outbreak...
Quantifying mpox transmission and control: A regional analysis of vaccination strategies in East Africa
March 2026
Africa is home to the endemic mpox disease, especially in the tropical rain-forest regions of Central and West Africa. Although it is mostly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, reports of...
Comparing virus incubation time in SIRC models: Deterministic versus stochastic approaches
March 2026
Time delays are a fundamental feature in modeling stochastic epidemic systems, as they capture the incubation period and other physiological lags inherent in disease transmission. In this work, we investigate...
Modelling, analysis and optimal control of Zika virus transmission dynamics based on sterile insect technique
March 2026
The sterile insect technique (SIT) has emerged as a promising tool for suppressing mosquito-borne diseases. This study develops a Zika virus transmission model integrating SIT, emphasizing both mosquito-borne...
Impact of high-order time-delayed information on epidemic propagation in multiplex networks
March 2026
Traditional epidemic models often overlook disease incubation periods and high-order social interactions, limiting their ability to capture real-world transmission dynamics. To address these gaps, we...
Novel approach to extract epidemiological information from waves in epidemic's profiles
March 2026
In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical framework based on the Kermack- McKendrick model to extract epidemiological parameters from real temporal profiles consisting of waves. The approach's...
A framework using large time series model for early warning of infectious diseases
March 2026
Infectious diseases controlling system is indispensable for weaken the damage to the people's life and property security caused by infectious diseases. An effective infectious diseases controlling system...
Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model
March 2026
China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary...
Application of the type and target reproduction numbers to the evaluation of the influence of each prefecture in Japan on the disease spread
March 2026
In this study, by applying population mobility data in July, August and September of 2019–2023 in Japan to a multigroup epidemic model, we calculate the type and target reproduction numbers of each...
Vaccination games of boundedly rational parents toward new childhood immunization
March 2026
Infectious diseases harm societies through disease-induced morbidity, mortality, loss of productivity, and inequality. Thus, controlling and preventing them is critical for public health and societal...
Applications and reporting of causal inference modelling in infectious disease studies: A systematic review
March 2026
Causal inference is increasingly employed in infectious disease (ID) epidemiology. Despite the increasing adoption of causal inference methods in infectious disease research, there has been no comprehensive...
Optimizing spatiotemporal nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza: An adaptive reinforcement learning approach for regional heterogeneity
March 2026
Influenza remains a significant global public health challenge because of its high transmissibility, widespread circulation, and considerable societal impact. Conventional threshold-based nonpharmaceutical...
Travel-related importation risk of mpox from Hong Kong to Shenzhen in 2023: A modeling study
March 2026
Mpox, a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox, has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23, primarily linked to close intimate contact. In China, mpox cases...
Feasibility of eliminating adult hepatitis B in Guangdong by 2030: A modeling study
March 2026
Eliminating hepatitis B remains challenging, especially in Guangdong, the region with China's highest burden. Predicting incidence, optimizing vaccination, and reducing illness are essential to meet...
A multi-method study evaluating the inference of compartmental model parameters from a generative agent-based model
March 2026
Calibrating process models such as compartmental SIR Models to real data can be performed using either optimization or Bayesian techniques. To accurately assess the performance of these methods, synthetic...
Understanding human mobility patterns under a public health emergency
March 2026
Understanding human mobility changes during epidemics is critical for predicting disease spread and planning interventions. However, capturing fine-scale dynamics is challenging....
Surveillance of infectious diseases spreading on time-varying multiplex networks
March 2026
Surveillance of infectious disease transmission is crucial for early detection and timely intervention. Existing studies mainly focus on static single-layer networks, primarily aiming to identify which...
Associations of ambient temperature and heat waves with risks of hepatitis E in Jiangsu, China (2010–2023): A time-stratified case-crossover study
March 2026
Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes substantial morbidity globally, with frequent outbreaks in low-resource settings due to fecal-oral transmission. Temperature and extreme heat may influence waterborne...
Predicting the burden of co-infections in seasonally driven dynamics of pediatric rotavirus and norovirus
March 2026
Rotavirus and norovirus are principal viral agents of acute gastroenteritis, primarily transmitted through close contact. Although each virus has its own capability to spread the epidemic, rotavirus...
COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) implied by the serology, antibody, testing in New York City
March 2026
This paper estimates COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) in early 2020 before pharmaceutical interventions were available on a large population in the United States. The better estimates of COVID-19...
