Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
From qualitative prediction to quantitative insight: combined meteorological patterns and regional dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Liaoning Province, China, 2010–2024
September 2026
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with an expanding range and increasing public health burden. Meteorology-driven frameworks that integrate qualitative...
Simulating treatment effects for gonorrhoea using a within-host mathematical model
September 2026
Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) bacteria have evolved resistance to many of the antibiotics used to treat gonorrhoea infection. To explore potential treatment options for gonorrhoea, we extend a previously...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Estimation of the exponential growth rate of an epidemic
September 2026
Accurate estimation of the initial growth rate of an epidemic is critical for assessing transmissibility and guiding early interventions. Standard regression-based methods, such as negative binomial...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response
September 2026
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's...
Acute respiratory infection (COVID-19) risk prediction in travelers: A random forest model
September 2026
Early screening during outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is critical for controlling disease spread among international travelers. However, the massive volume of traveler data generated...
Data-driven model analysis of the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on tuberculosis incidence
September 2026
Tuberculosis (TB), a global infectious disease, poses a formidable challenge to Taiwan, China, exacerbated by its aging demographic and the incursion of pathogens from Southeast Asia's high-risk districts....
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
Comparing frequentist and Bayesian methods to identify drivers of pathogen strain invasion: A temporal case study of pertussis in the United States
June 2026
Since the 20th century, it has been widely recognized that the emergence of new pathogens is closely linked to human activities such as global travel and environmental exploitation. In addition, the...
FluAttn: Antigenicity prediction of influenza A/H3N2 through attention-based feature mining
June 2026
The rapid antigenic drift of influenza A/H3N2 compromises the durability of vaccine-induced protection, underscoring the need for accurate antigenic assessment to evaluate vaccine efficacy and guide...
Dynamics and forecasting of an age-structured stochastic SIR model with Lévy perturbations via physics-informed neural networks
June 2026
Understanding and predicting real-world epidemic dynamics has consistently posed a formidable challenge. This study addresses an age-structured stochastic SIR model incorporating a general incidence...
Stochastic dynamics of Chikungunya virus infection model incorporating general incidence rate and immune responses
June 2026
This study investigates a stochastic model of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection that incorporates a general incidence rate along with B-cell and CTL immune responses. Stochasticity is modeled through...
Dynamical analysis of the SVEIR-M epidemic model with age structure under media coverage
June 2026
With the frequent emergence and spread of new infectious diseases, poses severe threats to public health, and the government often relies on non-pharmaceutical interventions to cope. Meanwhile, the...
Impact of age-structured migration on malaria burden: A modelling-empirical analysis in sub-Saharan Africa
June 2026
Malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa is strongly influenced by seasonal climatic variations and human mobility, particularly occupation-driven rural-to-urban migration. These dynamics contribute...
Dynamic analysis of syphilis model with the saturated incidence and early latent stage
June 2026
Syphilis is a blood-borne disease with multiple hidden-transmission stages caused by Treponema pallidum, and most infected individuals are asymptomatic as reported by the World Health Organization....
Modeling the seasonal and climate-dependent dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: Implications for transmission and Control
June 2026
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic, zoonotic neglected tropical disease that remains a persistent public health challenge in endemic regions of Brazil, including the state of Maranhão. Transmission...
Age-structured next generation matrix and R0 calculation for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP)
June 2026
Paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), is known for its age-specific susceptibility, lifelong infection, varied shedding patterns, low diagnostic...
Urbanization influences hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission: 34-year evidence from China's national surveillance
June 2026
Mainland China accounts for over 90 % of the global hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases, yet quantitative relationships between climate, urbanization and transmission dynamics remain...
Spatio-temporal forecasting of dengue in the Americas through hybrid mechanistic and data-driven models: Systematic review and meta-analysis
June 2026
This systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD420251130769) synthesises 30 dengue modelling studies conducted in the Americas between 2016 and 2025, evaluating the integration of mechanistic...
Integrating Kolmogorov-Arnold networks with ordinary differential equations for efficient, interpretable, and robust deep learning: Epidemiology of infectious diseases as a case study
June 2026
This study extends universal differential equation (UDE) frameworks by integrating the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) with ordinary differential equations, referred to as KAN-UDE, to achieve efficient...
Study on the resurgence of pertussis based on a stage-structured dynamic model
June 2026
Although pertussis vaccination has effectively reduced the global incidence rate and mortality, pertussis resurgence has been observed in many countries in recent years. This study aims to untangle...
Modeling and control of Chikungunya with chronic infection
June 2026
Recognized globally as a major public health concern in the tropics and subtropics, Chikungunya fever also poses a potential epidemic risk in areas of China such as Guangdong Province, where suitable...
