Optimising future scenarios of forest fire occurrence in Daxing’anling using long-term survey data and intelligent modelling
Available online 22 January 2026
The Daxing’anling Mountains, as a climate-sensitive region, are experiencing forest fires that threaten the area’s ecological security. Nevertheless, most of the existing fire prediction models are...
Intensified melting in the Arctic lower troposphere from 1979 to 2023
Available online 21 January 2026
Ice melting in the atmosphere has far-reaching impacts on cloud microphysical properties, precipitation intensity and type. However, this issue remains largely unexplored in the Arctic. This study adopted...
Latitudinal gradients in runoff dynamics across undisturbed Eurasian permafrost rivers under accelerating climate change
Available online 19 January 2026
While the impacts of permafrost degradation on Eurasian river discharge are well-documented, a systematic understanding of how these impacts vary across latitudes—critical for predicting continental...
Uncovering the potential of coal-to-nuclear in the energy low-carbon transition
Available online 13 January 2026
Advancing power sector decarbonization represents one of the most direct and effective measures in carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. Replacing to-be-retired coal fired power...
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Polynyas and their Relationships with Phytoplankton Blooms in the Ross Sea, Antarctica
Available online 7 January 2026
Phytoplankton bloom is closely tied to the seasonal evolution of Antarctic coastal polynyas, yet a phenology-based framework linking polynya dynamics to bloom spatiotemporal patterns and phase-specific...
Water supply‒demand status and management strategies on the Mongolian Plateau
Available online 7 January 2026
Arid and semi‒arid areas are facing serious water challenges, yet a comprehensive understanding of current and future water supply–demand dynamics remains limited, particularly under climate change...
Impact of black carbon and mineral dust on glacier melting in central Tienshan
Available online 5 January 2026
The light absorbing impurities (LAIs), primarily black carbon (BC) and mineral dust (MD), can darken the glacier surface, enhance radiative forcing absorption, and then accelerate glacier melting, which...
Warming‒wetting and continentality co-modulate the effect of desertification on permafrost degradation on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau
December 2025
Permafrost degradation and desertification have been identified as two major land surface processes occurring on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau. However, the effect of desertification on permafrost degradation...
Contrasting trends of extreme rainfall and snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere
December 2025
Global warming has modified the distribution between solid and liquid precipitation, leading to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall and snowfall. However, the distinct response...
Asymmetric response of Arctic sea ice and navigation to carbon emissions
December 2025
Arctic navigability has far-reaching socioeconomic consequences, but how the navigation will respond to negative carbon emissions proposed to mitigate global warming remains unclear. Based on the idealized...
Dynamics and drivers of China's crop production carbon emissions in 2001–2021: A micro‒macro data integration study
December 2025
China's crop production evolution has significantly reshaped spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions. However, a comprehensive understanding of the underlying driving mechanism...
A classification‒regression‒correction (CRC) strategy for precipitation merging with gauge-independent spatial autocorrelation predictors
December 2025
Multi-source precipitation merging enhances spatiotemporal estimation accuracy, yet machine learning (ML)-based methods suffer from limitations in rain/no-rain identification and violate ML principles...
Response of water cycle over drylands to a warming future
December 2025
The synergistic relationship among various hydrological elements within the water cycle remains unclear because existing studies have mainly focused on the response of a single water cycle element to...
More prolonged hot, dry, and compound dry‒hot events in China than expected based on observation-constrained projections
December 2025
Despite growing evidence of intensifying hot and dry extremes, future projections remain highly uncertain due to substantial inter-model discrepancies, particularly at regional scales. This study investigates...
Synergistic effects of warming and heavy snowfall accumulation on the increased risk of large-scale snow avalanches in the western Tianshan Mountains
December 2025
Climate change has increased temperatures and altered snowpack properties, which in turn affect avalanche activity. The extent to which climate change affects avalanche activity and how avalanche activity...
Impact of demographic changes on carbon emissions under a carbon-neutral pathway
December 2025
The existing carbon-neutral oriented climate change policy modeling studies hardly consider the multidimensional demographic factors, and lack scientific understanding of the comprehensive impact of...
Geographically-dependent coastal marine heatwaves: Insights from coastal seas around a semi-enclosed bay
December 2025
Coastal seas connecting the open ocean and land are highly impacted by local terrestrial weather and climate systems. However, there is a lack of research focus on the distinct coastal geographical...
Ground surface temperature variations and their links to permafrost distribution in the Genhe River Basin, Da Xing'anling Mountain Range
December 2025
Ground surface temperature (GST) fundamentally controls permafrost distribution in transitional zones, yet the link between GST variability and permafrost occurrence remains poorly understood, particularly...
The distinctive characteristics of glacier surface melt under the combined control of westerlies and monsoon in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
December 2025
As a key part of the Asian Water Tower, the glaciers in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) experience the mass balance changes jointly regulated by the westerlies and monsoon circulation. However,...
Review of WRF for weather and climate change over the Tibetan Plateau
December 2025
The state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is an indispensable tool for studying weather and climate change; however, its application over the Tibetan Plateau—a region characterized...
Climate change-induced northward shifts in double cropping system in China: Implications for crop production potential and water use
December 2025
Climate change may shift double cropping system into new areas and increase cropping intensity in some regions, creating opportunities to boost crop production. However, these changes also reshape the...
Escalating risks of anomalously hot–dry growing seasons in arid Northwest China under human influence
December 2025
The anomalous hydrothermal conditions during growing seasons, i.e. less precipitation and high temperature, could induce an unstable water resource supply and pose great threats to regional agro-pastoral...
Deceleration of tropopause rise amidst ozone recovery over Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica
December 2025
Tropopause height (H), a crucial variable for assessing upper-air climate change, is primarily modulated by temperature variations in the troposphere and stratosphere. While the recovery of Antarctic...
The tempo‒spatial heterogeneity of the association between hourly ambient temperature and injury morbidity: A nationwide large case-crossover study in China
December 2025
In the context of global warming, the impact on human health has received increasing attention. However, studies focusing on injury are limited, with most examining temperature-injury association on...
Assessing climate and transition risks to China’s agriculture under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios
Available online 30 December 2025
China’s agriculture faces dual risks from climate change and the transition to low-carbon agriculture, both of which pose substantial threats to food security and farmers' incomes. Understanding the...
