Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
From qualitative prediction to quantitative insight: combined meteorological patterns and regional dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Liaoning Province, China, 2010–2024
September 2026
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with an expanding range and increasing public health burden. Meteorology-driven frameworks that integrate qualitative...
Simulating treatment effects for gonorrhoea using a within-host mathematical model
September 2026
Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) bacteria have evolved resistance to many of the antibiotics used to treat gonorrhoea infection. To explore potential treatment options for gonorrhoea, we extend a previously...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Estimation of the exponential growth rate of an epidemic
September 2026
Accurate estimation of the initial growth rate of an epidemic is critical for assessing transmissibility and guiding early interventions. Standard regression-based methods, such as negative binomial...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response
September 2026
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's...
Acute respiratory infection (COVID-19) risk prediction in travelers: A random forest model
September 2026
Early screening during outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is critical for controlling disease spread among international travelers. However, the massive volume of traveler data generated...
Data-driven model analysis of the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on tuberculosis incidence
September 2026
Tuberculosis (TB), a global infectious disease, poses a formidable challenge to Taiwan, China, exacerbated by its aging demographic and the incursion of pathogens from Southeast Asia's high-risk districts....
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
A predictive model for rapid assessment of protective efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants
September 2026
An effective predictive model of protection would be very helpful to provide a timely and reliable evaluation of the vaccine induced protection against corresponding to rapidly emerging evolving SARS-CoV-2...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Mathematical modeling for analyzing mass drug administration operational factors for efficient malaria incidence reduction in southern Senegal
September 2026
Mass drug administration (MDA) has emerged as a promising strategy for reducing malaria incidence in many African countries. A pilot study of MDA in the Tambacounda health district in southeastern Senegal...
Modeling the Impact of Malaria Chemoprevention with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine on the spread of Plasmodium falciparum dhps A581G mutation
September 2026
Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is a key antimalarial used in chemoprevention strategies, including intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); intermittent preventive treatment in infants...
Dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model with deterministic/stochastic migration and distributed delays
September 2026
We study the global dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model that integrates spatial migration, Erlang-distributed delays, and environmental stochasticity. The two patches are coupled by migration whose...
Spatial point pattern analysis of environmental effects on valley fever intensity in Phoenix, Arizona
September 2026
Using a novel Arizona Medicaid data set, we model Valley fever (VF) cases in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area as a spatial point process during six month intervals between 2013 and 2023. We estimate the...
The coupling process of awareness and disease under the influence of synergistic-hedging effect of information resources
September 2026
Information serves as a crucial yet invisible resources and can be categorized into two types: positive information resources and negative information resources. Different types of information resources...
Dynamic modelling and analysis of human brucellosis on age heterogeneity in Jinzhou, China
September 2026
Since brucellosis causes harms and losses to sheep and human populations in the cities of Northern and Northwest China, we establish a cross-species brucellosis model with age-structure and bilinear...
Comparing frequentist and Bayesian methods to identify drivers of pathogen strain invasion: A temporal case study of pertussis in the United States
June 2026
Since the 20th century, it has been widely recognized that the emergence of new pathogens is closely linked to human activities such as global travel and environmental exploitation. In addition, the...
FluAttn: Antigenicity prediction of influenza A/H3N2 through attention-based feature mining
June 2026
The rapid antigenic drift of influenza A/H3N2 compromises the durability of vaccine-induced protection, underscoring the need for accurate antigenic assessment to evaluate vaccine efficacy and guide...
Dynamics and forecasting of an age-structured stochastic SIR model with Lévy perturbations via physics-informed neural networks
June 2026
Understanding and predicting real-world epidemic dynamics has consistently posed a formidable challenge. This study addresses an age-structured stochastic SIR model incorporating a general incidence...
Stochastic dynamics of Chikungunya virus infection model incorporating general incidence rate and immune responses
June 2026
This study investigates a stochastic model of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection that incorporates a general incidence rate along with B-cell and CTL immune responses. Stochasticity is modeled through...
Dynamical analysis of the SVEIR-M epidemic model with age structure under media coverage
June 2026
With the frequent emergence and spread of new infectious diseases, poses severe threats to public health, and the government often relies on non-pharmaceutical interventions to cope. Meanwhile, the...
