Statistical seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfalls on Taiwan Island
March 2025
Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Taiwan Island (TW) is one of the key regions that is highly exposed to TCs originated from the western North...
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Changes in tropical cyclone response to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the western North Pacific under global warming in EC-Earth3P-HR
March 2025
EC-Earth3P-HR reproduces well the observed Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and its impacts on tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Hence, the historical...
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Numerical simulation of size contraction of Typhoon Cempaka (2021)
March 2025
In 2021, Cempaka, a tiny tropical cyclone, made landfall in China. As the TC intensified prior to landfall, the tropical cyclone size measured with precipitation decreased significantly. A numerical...
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Understanding the initial conditions contributing to the rapid intensification of typhoons through ensemble sensitivity analysis
March 2025
While steady improvements have been achieved for the track forecasts of typhoons, there has been a lack of improvement for intensity forecasts. One challenge for intensity forecasts is to capture the...
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A regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model using CMA-TRAMS and LICOM: Preliminary results for tropical cyclone gale prediction over the northern South China Sea
March 2025
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone (TC) gales over the northern South China Sea....
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Latent and sensible heat fluxes in a very unstable atmospheric surface layer and weak-wind conditions in a tropical coastal ocean
Available online 31 March 2025
The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weak-wind conditions. How the latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat fluxes behave under such conditions...
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A reversal of upper-air wind speed in the Northern Hemisphere
Available online 28 March 2025
Previous studies have indicated a global reversal of near-surface wind speeds from a declining trend to an increasing trend around 2010; however, it remains unclear whether upper-air wind speeds exhibit...
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Impact of refined oceanic model resolution on the simulation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in LICOM3
Available online 14 March 2025
The present study compares the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the North Atlantic from two simulations by an oceanic general circulation model with 1° × 1° and 0.1° × 0.1° resolution,...
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Interannual variability of short rains in Tanzania and the influences from ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole
Available online 12 March 2025
Tanzania is mainly subject to a bimodal rainfall pattern, characterized by two distinct seasons: the long rains, occurring from March to May, and the short rains, which typically take place from October...
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Principal modes of summer NDVI in eastern Siberia and its climate prediction schemes
Available online 8 March 2025
Based on a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset for 1982–2021, this work investigates the principal modes of interannual variability in summer NDVI over eastern Siberia using the year-to-year...
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Attribution of regional Hadley circulation intensity changes in the Northern Hemisphere
Available online 7 March 2025
The discrepancy in the trends of the global zonal mean (GZM) intensity of the Hadley circulation (HCI) between reanalysis data and model simulations has been a problem for understanding the changes...
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High-skill members in the subseasonal forecast ensemble of extreme cold events in East Asia
Available online 27 February 2025
Subseasonal forecasting of extreme events is crucial for early warning systems. However, the forecast skills for extreme events are limited. Taking the extreme cold events in January 2018 as a specific...
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The increase in hot–dry events with a high risk of mortality in China associated with the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Available online 27 February 2025
Compound extreme climate events involving multiple meteorological elements usually have a more severe impact on the environment and human health than single-element extreme events. However, the current...
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Nowcasting of cloud-to-ground lightning location and frequency based on a deep learning technique
Available online 20 February 2025
Predicting lightning that can cause power grid trips is significant for disaster prevention. This paper integrates cloud-to-ground lightning detection, water vapor and infrared channel as well as channel...
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A new approach for identifying dominant cloud types and relationships between cloud types and precipitation vertical structure in tropical regions
Available online 20 February 2025
Cloud type profoundly affects precipitation, but few studies have explored its impact on precipitation scale height. The authors calculated the ratio of the volume of each cloud type to the total cloud...
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Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode
January 2025
During the boreal summer, intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions: the central-western equatorial Pacific (5°S–5°N, 150°E–150°W) and the...
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Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer, muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area, China
January 2025
Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization, the prediction of groundwater depth is a challenge for numerical models. Machine learning can effectively solve this issue and has been...
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Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing
January 2025
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports, which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse...
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Increase in the variability of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to enhanced future ENSO modulation
January 2025
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land–air interaction. Both the ENSO...
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Arctic sea-ice extent: No record minimum in 2023 or recent years
January 2025
Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers (mill.km2). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012,...
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Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean
January 2025
A remarkable marine heatwave, known as the “Blob”, occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016, which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of...
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Role of the Greenland Sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest China
January 2025
Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production, and has been alleviated during the past decades. This study explored the influence...
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