Stage specific immune responses to schistosomes may explain conflicting results in malaria-schistosome coinfection studies
December 2025
Malaria and schistosomiasis are two of the most clinically important human parasitic diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality, collectively causing approximately 800,000 deaths annually. Coinfection...
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The role of spontaneous clearance on fractional analysis of HBV
December 2025
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions.The present study proposes...
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Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB
December 2025
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this...
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Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models
December 2025
This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends....
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Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City
December 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted heterogeneities in human behavior and attitudes of individuals with respect to adherence or lack thereof to public health-mandated intervention...
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Early prediction of the outbreak risk of dengue fever in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam: An analysis based on Google trends and statistical models
September 2025
Dengue fever (DF), caused by the Dengue virus through the Aedes mosquito vector, is a dangerous infectious disease with the potential to become a global epidemic. Vietnam, particularly Ba Ria-Vung Tau...
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Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
September 2025
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments...
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A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model
September 2025
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic...
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The interaction between population age structure and policy interventions on the spread of COVID-19
September 2025
COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented public health crisis and a global economic shock. As countries and cities have transitioned away from strict pandemic restrictions, the most effective reopening...
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Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains
September 2025
Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control...
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Real-time inference of the end of an outbreak: Temporally aggregated disease incidence data and under-reporting
September 2025
Professor Pierre Magal made important contributions to the field of mathematical biology before his death on February 20, 2024, including research in which epidemiological models were used to study...
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Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection
September 2025
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread...
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Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention
September 2025
For emerging respiratory infectious diseases like COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation are crucial for controlling the spread. From the perspective of network transmission, non-pharmaceutical...
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Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling
September 2025
Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary...
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Evolution into chaos – Implications of the trade-off between transmissibility and immune evasion
September 2025
Predicting viral evolution presents a significant challenge and is a critical public health priority. In response to this challenge, we develop a novel model for viral evolution that considers a trade-off...
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Dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation and quarantine: A probability-based deterministic model
September 2025
Assuming a homogeneous population, we employ a deterministic model based on first principles of probability to explore dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation alone, quarantine alone, and the...
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Impact of human mobility and weather conditions on Dengue mosquito abundance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong
September 2025
While Aedes mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, are expected to expand due to climate change, the impact of human mobility on them is largely unclear. Changes in human mobility, such as staying at home...
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Impact of information dissemination and behavioural responses on epidemic dynamics: A multi-layer network analysis
September 2025
Network models adeptly capture heterogeneities in individual interactions, making them well-suited for describing a wide range of real-world and virtual connections, including information diffusion,...
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Visual preferences for communicating modelling: a global analysis of COVID-19 policy and decision makers
September 2025
Effective communication of modelling results to policy and decision makers has been a longstanding challenge in times of crises. This communication takes many forms - visualisations, reports, presentations...
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Characteristics and risk factors for outcomes in patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae mono- and coinfections: A multicenter surveillance study in Wuhan, China, 2023
September 2025
Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) is a key cause of community-acquired pneumonia, and coinfections lead to varied patient outcomes. A comprehensive understanding of the outcome characteristics and associated...
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Estimation of under-reporting influenza cases in Hong Kong based on bayesian hierarchical framework
September 2025
Influenza remains a global challenge, imposing a significant burden on society and the economy. Many influenza cases are asymptomatic, leading to greater uncertainty and the under-reporting of cases...
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Dynamic predicting hepatitis B surface antigen decline rate during treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B
September 2025
Prediction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline rates during treatment is crucial for achieving a higher proportion of functional cure outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB),...
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Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia
September 2025
Accurate identification of spatial patterns and risk factors of disease occurrence is crucial for public health interventions. However, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) poses challenges in disease...
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Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study
September 2025
Contact tracing has been a key tool to contain the spread of diseases and was widely used by countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing has been...
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Estimating the effect of contact tracing during the early stage of an epidemic
September 2025
Contact tracing is an important public health measure to control disease transmission. However, it is difficult to assess contact tracing during the exponential stage of an epidemic with multiple control...
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