Modeling the transmission dynamics and control strategies during the 2017 diphtheria outbreak in Jakarta, Indonesia
March 2026
Diphtheria has resurged globally, including in Indonesia, despite widespread vaccination since the 1970s. Knowledge gaps persist in understanding contemporary transmission drivers and effective outbreak...
Quantifying mpox transmission and control: A regional analysis of vaccination strategies in East Africa
March 2026
Africa is home to the endemic mpox disease, especially in the tropical rain-forest regions of Central and West Africa. Although it is mostly found in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, reports of...
Comparing virus incubation time in SIRC models: Deterministic versus stochastic approaches
March 2026
Time delays are a fundamental feature in modeling stochastic epidemic systems, as they capture the incubation period and other physiological lags inherent in disease transmission. In this work, we investigate...
Modelling, analysis and optimal control of Zika virus transmission dynamics based on sterile insect technique
March 2026
The sterile insect technique (SIT) has emerged as a promising tool for suppressing mosquito-borne diseases. This study develops a Zika virus transmission model integrating SIT, emphasizing both mosquito-borne...
Impact of high-order time-delayed information on epidemic propagation in multiplex networks
March 2026
Traditional epidemic models often overlook disease incubation periods and high-order social interactions, limiting their ability to capture real-world transmission dynamics. To address these gaps, we...
Novel approach to extract epidemiological information from waves in epidemic's profiles
March 2026
In this paper, we develop a novel mathematical framework based on the Kermack- McKendrick model to extract epidemiological parameters from real temporal profiles consisting of waves. The approach's...
A framework using large time series model for early warning of infectious diseases
March 2026
Infectious diseases controlling system is indispensable for weaken the damage to the people's life and property security caused by infectious diseases. An effective infectious diseases controlling system...
Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model
March 2026
China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary...
Application of the type and target reproduction numbers to the evaluation of the influence of each prefecture in Japan on the disease spread
March 2026
In this study, by applying population mobility data in July, August and September of 2019–2023 in Japan to a multigroup epidemic model, we calculate the type and target reproduction numbers of each...
Vaccination games of boundedly rational parents toward new childhood immunization
March 2026
Infectious diseases harm societies through disease-induced morbidity, mortality, loss of productivity, and inequality. Thus, controlling and preventing them is critical for public health and societal...
Applications and reporting of causal inference modelling in infectious disease studies: A systematic review
March 2026
Causal inference is increasingly employed in infectious disease (ID) epidemiology. Despite the increasing adoption of causal inference methods in infectious disease research, there has been no comprehensive...
Travel-related importation risk of mpox from Hong Kong to Shenzhen in 2023: A modeling study
March 2026
Mpox, a viral zoonotic disease formerly known as monkeypox, has gained global attention following a multi-country outbreak in 2022-23, primarily linked to close intimate contact. In China, mpox cases...
Feasibility of eliminating adult hepatitis B in Guangdong by 2030: A modeling study
March 2026
Eliminating hepatitis B remains challenging, especially in Guangdong, the region with China's highest burden. Predicting incidence, optimizing vaccination, and reducing illness are essential to meet...
Stage specific immune responses to schistosomes may explain conflicting results in malaria-schistosome coinfection studies
December 2025
Malaria and schistosomiasis are two of the most clinically important human parasitic diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality, collectively causing approximately 800,000 deaths annually. Coinfection...
The role of spontaneous clearance on fractional analysis of HBV
December 2025
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions.The present study proposes...
Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB
December 2025
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this...
Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models
December 2025
This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends....
Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City
December 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted heterogeneities in human behavior and attitudes of individuals with respect to adherence or lack thereof to public health-mandated intervention...
Regional variation and epidemiological insights in malaria underestimation in Cameroon
December 2025
Despite significant global effort to control and eradicate malaria, many cases and deaths are still reported yearly. These efforts are hindered by several factors, including the severe underestimation...
Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation
December 2025
Understanding the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals by age is essential for improving the test-and-treat strategy. We developed an extended back-calculation by age group to investigate...
Avian influenza virus dynamics in poultry and the environment: an eight-year longitudinal study in the southwestern Poyang Lake region of China
December 2025
Surveillance of the Avian influenza virus serves as the first line of defense, encompassing monitoring of both animals and environment. These approaches vary across countries due to differences in epidemiology...
Modelling the impact of vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics under stratified populations and seasonality
December 2025
Different types of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are currently available in the global market to combat cholera epidemic. In most of developing countries, there is comparatively limited deployment of...
Control of Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and Rocky Mountain spotted fever informed by an in silico tool
December 2025
We explored a compartment “susceptible-infected-recovered” model to prioritize and test the effectiveness of dog- and tick-based interventions against Rocky Mountain spotted fever and its tick vector...
Analysis of vaccination strategies in a heterosexual HPV transmission model with a case study in Xinjiang of China
December 2025
Vaccination has confirmed efficacy in preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The inclusion of males in vaccination programs remains a subject of debate, and the optimal allocation of vaccines...
Mathematical insights into mumps transmission control with optimal strategies
December 2025
In this study, we develop an optimal control framework for managing mumps infections through a dynamic model that integrates public health interventions such as awareness programs, isolation protocols,...