Spatial heterogeneity and tendency prediction of a community transmission model with HIV detection
December 2026
World Health Organization recommends that the individuals with HIV infection take HIV detection as early as possible to avoid the potential transmission risk in the community, because HIV infection...
Symptom-based diagnostic models for common respiratory viral infections: a machine learning and natural language processing study
December 2026
This study aimed to develop an efficient and cost-saving diagnostic approach using natural language processing and explainable machine learning models....
Associations between Legionellosis and meteorological variables in Ohio, 2001-2023
December 2026
Legionellosis, a respiratory disease caused by Legionella bacteria, has increased in incidence across the United States, yet the environmental factors influencing its rise remain unclear. We examined...
Sensitivity of Convergent Cross Mapping to temporal discontinuities: A case study of seasonal influenza in Hong Kong
December 2026
Convergent cross mapping (CCM) method has been widely applied to investigate environmental drivers of infectious disease dynamics, particularly for seasonal influenza. However, its robustness to temporal...
Dynamical modeling and analysis of the impact of zonal prevention and control under normalized management on African Swine Fever transmission in China
December 2026
China's first outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) occurred in August 2018, rapidly spreading to all 31 provinces within three months, causing massive losses to the pork industry. After emergency measures...
Examining the impact of emotion-driven resource allocation on information-behavior-disease coupling dynamics
December 2026
In public emergency management, both medical and informational resources play crucial roles in shaping disease spreading dynamics. To enrich the literature on resource allocation in the context of disease...
Rek-Surv: A lightweight deep survival model for plant infectious disease onset prediction
December 2026
Infectious disease outbreaks in crop systems pose a significant threat to global food security, particularly when early detection and intervention opportunities are missed. Predicting not just whether...
Mosquito salivary protein antibodies as efficient endpoints for vector control trials: A mechanistic comparison with clinical and entomological outcomes
December 2026
Evaluating vector control interventions through randomized trials is often challenging because clinical endpoints, such as infection incidence, are rare and heterogeneous even areas at high risk, resulting...
Analysis and simulation for a two-sex transmission model of HPV infection in Xinjiang of China
December 2026
This study develops a two-sex deterministic compartmental model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and the subsequent progression to cervical cancer within a heterosexual...
A novel mathematical modeling and optimal control analysis of monkeypox transmission incorporating double-dose vaccination strategies: Insights from the recent outbreak
December 2026
Monkeypox (Mpox) has re-emerged as a serious global public health concern due to its potential human-to-human transmission and persistence in the environment. This study develops a new deterministic...
Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
From qualitative prediction to quantitative insight: combined meteorological patterns and regional dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Liaoning Province, China, 2010–2024
September 2026
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne disease with an expanding range and increasing public health burden. Meteorology-driven frameworks that integrate qualitative...
Simulating treatment effects for gonorrhoea using a within-host mathematical model
September 2026
Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) bacteria have evolved resistance to many of the antibiotics used to treat gonorrhoea infection. To explore potential treatment options for gonorrhoea, we extend a previously...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Estimation of the exponential growth rate of an epidemic
September 2026
Accurate estimation of the initial growth rate of an epidemic is critical for assessing transmissibility and guiding early interventions. Standard regression-based methods, such as negative binomial...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response
September 2026
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's...
Acute respiratory infection (COVID-19) risk prediction in travelers: A random forest model
September 2026
Early screening during outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is critical for controlling disease spread among international travelers. However, the massive volume of traveler data generated...
Data-driven model analysis of the impact of environmental and socioeconomic factors on tuberculosis incidence
September 2026
Tuberculosis (TB), a global infectious disease, poses a formidable challenge to Taiwan, China, exacerbated by its aging demographic and the incursion of pathogens from Southeast Asia's high-risk districts....
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
A predictive model for rapid assessment of protective efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants
September 2026
An effective predictive model of protection would be very helpful to provide a timely and reliable evaluation of the vaccine induced protection against corresponding to rapidly emerging evolving SARS-CoV-2...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Mathematical modeling for analyzing mass drug administration operational factors for efficient malaria incidence reduction in southern Senegal
September 2026
Mass drug administration (MDA) has emerged as a promising strategy for reducing malaria incidence in many African countries. A pilot study of MDA in the Tambacounda health district in southeastern Senegal...
