Early prediction of the outbreak risk of dengue fever in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, Vietnam: An analysis based on Google trends and statistical models
September 2025
Dengue fever (DF), caused by the Dengue virus through the Aedes mosquito vector, is a dangerous infectious disease with the potential to become a global epidemic. Vietnam, particularly Ba Ria-Vung Tau...
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Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network
September 2025
In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments...
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A refractory density approach to a multi-scale SEIRS epidemic model
September 2025
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic...
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The interaction between population age structure and policy interventions on the spread of COVID-19
September 2025
COVID-19 has triggered an unprecedented public health crisis and a global economic shock. As countries and cities have transitioned away from strict pandemic restrictions, the most effective reopening...
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Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains
September 2025
Epidemiological indicators (e.g. reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices) describe long- and short-term behaviour of ongoing epidemics. Their evolving values provide context for designing control...
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Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection
September 2025
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread...
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Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention
September 2025
For emerging respiratory infectious diseases like COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation are crucial for controlling the spread. From the perspective of network transmission, non-pharmaceutical...
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Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling
September 2025
Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary...
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Evolution into chaos – Implications of the trade-off between transmissibility and immune evasion
September 2025
Predicting viral evolution presents a significant challenge and is a critical public health priority. In response to this challenge, we develop a novel model for viral evolution that considers a trade-off...
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Dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation and quarantine: A probability-based deterministic model
September 2025
Assuming a homogeneous population, we employ a deterministic model based on first principles of probability to explore dynamics of an epidemic controlled by isolation alone, quarantine alone, and the...
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Impact of human mobility and weather conditions on Dengue mosquito abundance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong
September 2025
While Aedes mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, are expected to expand due to climate change, the impact of human mobility on them is largely unclear. Changes in human mobility, such as staying at home...
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Visual preferences for communicating modelling: a global analysis of COVID-19 policy and decision makers
September 2025
Effective communication of modelling results to policy and decision makers has been a longstanding challenge in times of crises. This communication takes many forms - visualisations, reports, presentations...
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Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
June 2025
West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the...
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Dynamics and asymptotic profiles of a local-nonlocal dispersal SIR epidemic model with spatial heterogeneity
June 2025
This research investigates a novel approach to modeling an SIR epidemic in a heterogeneous environment by imposing certain restrictions on population mobility. Our study reveals the influence of partially...
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Global infectious disease early warning models: An updated review and lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic
June 2025
An early warning model for infectious diseases is a crucial tool for timely monitoring, prevention, and control of disease outbreaks. The integration of diverse multi-source data using big data and...
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Can the prevalence of one STI serve as a predictor for another? A mathematical modeling analysis
June 2025
We aimed to understand to what extent knowledge of the prevalence of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) can predict the prevalence of another STI, with application for men who have sex with men...
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Estimating cumulative infection rate of COVID-19 after adjusting the dynamic zero-COVID policy in China
June 2025
At the end of 2022, China adjusted its coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control strategy. How this adjustment affected the cumulative infection rate is debated, and how second booster...
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Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China
June 2025
Social contact patterns significantly influence the transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous surveys have quantified human social contact patterns, yielding heterogeneous results across...
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Treatment failure and the threshold of disease extinction
June 2025
Antibiotic treatment failure related to carriers poses a serious problem to physicians and epidemiologists. Due to the sparsity of data, assessing the role in infection dynamics is difficult. In this...
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Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: A comparative analysis across pre-, during, and post-COVID-19 eras
June 2025
This paper presents an investigation into the spatio-temporal dynamics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) across the diverse health regions of Brazil from 2016 to 2024. Leveraging extensive...
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A modelling approach to characterise the interaction between behavioral response and epidemics: A study based on COVID-19
June 2025
During epidemic outbreaks, human behavior is highly influential on the disease transmission and hence affects the course, duration and outcome of the epidemics. In order to examine the feedback effect...
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Lockdown policy in pandemics: Enforcement, adherence, and effectiveness in the case of COVID-19
June 2025
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COVID-19 dynamic modeling of immune variability and multistage vaccination strategies: A case study in Malaysia
June 2025
Hybrid-immune and immunodeficient individuals have been identified by the World Health Organization as two vulnerable groups in the context of COVID-19, but their distinct characteristics remain underexplored....
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Role of limited medical resources in an epidemic model with media report and general birth rate
June 2025
This paper formulates an SEIRSHM epidemic model with general birth rate, media report and limited medical resources. Firstly, the well-posedness of the solutions and the extinction of the disease are...
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Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insight on the individual scale: A contribution to green computing
June 2025
Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century. Although over the past decades, highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding...
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